Makes you wonder if they are suspending more players in advance of additional footage becoming public. Some of these names I didn't catch in what's been out so far.
Are you weighting more recent games heavier than early season? Bama's offense has been very efficient all year even if it was less than their standard last game. Even when they were obviously one-dimensional with the QB arm-punting last game they still put 288 on the ground against an average SEC defense.
Its just a flyer on a hot new QB name with a name brand program that has a decent chance to win conference and go to playoff. JJ odds are already down to +2000 and I anticipate a big PR bump when you see his name at the top of the passing QB stats. Right now he doesn't have enough attempts per game to qualify but you can see him at the bottom of this table: http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/national/player/split01/category02/sort01.html
Compare his YPA and Completion % to those at the top of the table and you can see if he keeps up at a similar pace he'll pop in at the top of the national stats.
In the Offense rating MSU ranks #29, defense rating MSU ranks #31.
What is interesting is that on the opponent adjusted offensive YPP rating, UM and MSU are #13 and #14 respectively and defensive YPP rating its UM #36 and MSU #37.
The big difference in the overall rating between these two is the PPG on offense and defense where Michigan is scoring 13.16 points above what their opponents allow and MSU scoring only 4.27 above their opponents average on offense. Defensively, UM is holding their opponents to -9.48 of what they average and MSU is holding their opponents to -5.17 of their average.
Its a good illustration that neither team is exceptional on a yardage basis but are able to keep teams from scoring points much more effectively.
I’m not sure there is an ultimate meaning. It doesn’t factor in wins and losses, and only counts FBS vs FBS games from the 2021 season.
It’s just an objective metric to use in comparison with the eye test. Some weeks it goes 60+% ATS on all the games, some weeks it’s right around 50%, so nothing magic, just a “stat-test” to be used to corroborate the “eye-test”.
I think the main thing I've gleaned from the stats is that there are 3 teams on a top tier and 4-50 is depressingly similar- I exaggerate in jest but you get my drift.
Optimistically for Halloween weekend, the pace and opponent adjusted matchup predicts:
Mich: 30
MSU: 27
I'm counting on the road team dominance in the last 6 years!
Yes...a cluster fuck all around. Holding an Ole Miss +2.5 ticket, I was hoping they missed the extra point to avoid OT and the football gambling gods smiled.
I’d agree. The opponent adjustment helps, but there just isn’t enough cross pollination between common opponents to really filter out all the noise in the data.
Michigan has a slight statistical advantage in most yardage categories but Illinois has advantages in rushing efficiency and offensive/defensive scoring efficiency. This is likely due to Michigan’s lost fumbles when in scoring position.
My point is only that if we keep playing like this, 3-9 is within the realm. I share your sentiment generally, just putting the on field performance to date into perspective.
I created a pace-adjusted score projection model for any FBS v FBS opponent, then ran a mock 16 team playoff using the AP poll for seeding. Aside from the spicy first round matchups (Mich/OSU and Oklahoma/Texas) the real takeaway is that Wisconsin defeats Georgia, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and LSU in succession to take home the Week 3 College Football Tournament Championship: https://cfbstatnation.com/college-football-tournament-after-week-3/
I wasn’t blown away by Justin Fields throwing downfield once FAU started playing defense. I’d beware the backdoor cover depending on how long garbage time lasts.
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I can’t go straight for dessert just yet. I have a few hours of Buckeye tears to digest first.
I've been consuming it since they got plowed by Minnesota. Highly entertaining!
#Disrespekt
This is good.
#Disrespekt
Makes you wonder if they are suspending more players in advance of additional footage becoming public. Some of these names I didn't catch in what's been out so far.
Are you weighting more recent games heavier than early season? Bama's offense has been very efficient all year even if it was less than their standard last game. Even when they were obviously one-dimensional with the QB arm-punting last game they still put 288 on the ground against an average SEC defense.
My model says Michigan 35-19.
On their other preview video for Bama/Tenn their model predicts Tenn 37- Bama 28...that seems seems significantly off to me.
My model says Bama 36 - Tenn 27.
RIP parlay first leg as usual
Maryland,…
ML parlay +309
Maryland, North Carolina, Minnesota, Michigan, Washington
My projections based only on opponent adjusted points and pace:
Penn State 36 - NW 10
Indiana 40 - Nebraska 26, I don't get the Vegas line on this one
Wisconsin 23 - Illinois 22
Minnesota 36 - Purdue 11
Maryland 32 - Sparty 22
Ohio State 45 - Rutgers 11
Michigan 30 - Iowa 20
Link for all other games this week - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT6VUBmHsAhNZBYPtl3m3GtxaCabcn8b9NUW18KaQS-jo3K4fI-hSc80e8tQhTAejEhASbtjU7P8GYq/pubhtml?urp=gmail_link
Its just a flyer on a hot new QB name with a name brand program that has a decent chance to win conference and go to playoff. JJ odds are already down to +2000 and I anticipate a big PR bump when you see his name at the top of the passing QB stats. Right now he doesn't have enough attempts per game to qualify but you can see him at the bottom of this table: http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/national/player/split01/category02/sort01.html
Compare his YPA and Completion % to those at the top of the table and you can see if he keeps up at a similar pace he'll pop in at the top of the national stats.
JJ for…
My bets this week:
JJ for Heisman +3000
Syracuse -9.5
Texas -4 (early)
TCU -1
Minnesota +1 (early)
Arkansas +2
MD/MICH o62
CLEM/WF o57 (early line went the wrong way!)
Michigan -17
Here is my own computer ratings and prediction algo for all the games. It’s only based on this season so small sample size errors abound.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT6VUBmHsAhNZBYPtl3m3GtxaCabcn8b9NUW18KaQS-jo3K4fI-hSc80e8tQhTAejEhASbtjU7P8GYq/pubhtml
RIP lol
UCF -6.5 plus the rest of the stack on UCF ML.
have to double up before Saturday
Tom Brady is the Wayne Gretzky of Jim Harbaughs.
Throwing mechanics are YIKES but the last clip on the highlight reel is worth the watch!
In the Offense rating MSU ranks #29, defense rating MSU ranks #31.
What is interesting is that on the opponent adjusted offensive YPP rating, UM and MSU are #13 and #14 respectively and defensive YPP rating its UM #36 and MSU #37.
The big difference in the overall rating between these two is the PPG on offense and defense where Michigan is scoring 13.16 points above what their opponents allow and MSU scoring only 4.27 above their opponents average on offense. Defensively, UM is holding their opponents to -9.48 of what they average and MSU is holding their opponents to -5.17 of their average.
Its a good illustration that neither team is exceptional on a yardage basis but are able to keep teams from scoring points much more effectively.
It’s all done on google sheets with the “=importhtml()” function.
All fair points and good context, but would you be on the Cincy ML vs Ohio State?
Your point is most valid with respect to the Clemson defense rating who is still benefitting from holding UGA to 10 points in week 1.
It’s Google sheets “in the style of” old school mainframe text ;-)
I’m not sure there is an ultimate meaning. It doesn’t factor in wins and losses, and only counts FBS vs FBS games from the 2021 season.
It’s just an objective metric to use in comparison with the eye test. Some weeks it goes 60+% ATS on all the games, some weeks it’s right around 50%, so nothing magic, just a “stat-test” to be used to corroborate the “eye-test”.
I have Clemson’s offense at #103, that’s how they’ve scraped up to #41 with the #2 defense.
Thanks for the thoughts in the reply :-)
I think the main thing I've gleaned from the stats is that there are 3 teams on a top tier and 4-50 is depressingly similar- I exaggerate in jest but you get my drift.
Optimistically for Halloween weekend, the pace and opponent adjusted matchup predicts:
Mich: 30
MSU: 27
I'm counting on the road team dominance in the last 6 years!
My algorithm for power ratings thru week 7 shows this:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Cincinnati
5. Michigan
6. Iowa State
7. Florida
8. Penn State
9. Notre Dame
10. Utah
...
22. Michigan State
Here in TN we recently were allowed the privilege of legal gambling so no offshore fees but I had used mybookie.ag in the past.
I had jumped on Wisc -2.5 early and just hedged with Mich +4.5. Hoping for a 3-4 point Wisc win since this season is on fire already.
:::screeches in authoritarian:::
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTosZlttMkjXkgTuGTzVJLRyn68Z2cKyY5gG4VqW5ar_6r8jX9pXNZzcXu8ijFlV6fajDTSazk_p00O/pubhtml
Here are the home brew projections I go by. Was 62% ATS last week and around 55% ATS on the season in case you’re interested
Ball…
Ole Miss +2.5 (whew)
Ball State -2.5
Iowa -6
Boise -12.5
Wyoming +10.5
Notre Lame -14
Wisconsin -2.5
Alabama -4
Clemson -27
UL-Lafayette -20
Baylor -14
I forgot to mention they were obviously still smiling after the 4th and 24 conversion...lol
Yes...a cluster fuck all around. Holding an Ole Miss +2.5 ticket, I was hoping they missed the extra point to avoid OT and the football gambling gods smiled.
“Please Graham, try to control yourself” lmao
I’d agree. The opponent adjustment helps, but there just isn’t enough cross pollination between common opponents to really filter out all the noise in the data.
Defensive yards/play allowed vs FBS adjusted by opponent:
1. Clemson - 3.89
2. Ohio state - 4.01
3. Wisconsin - 4.08
4. Michigan - 4.32
5. Auburn - 4.34
6. Utah - 4.41
7. Pittsburgh - 4.58
8. Georgia - 4.58
9. Penn State - 4.65
10. Michigan State
13. Minnesota - 4.85
18. Iowa - 4.90
32. Northwestern - 5.20
63. Indiana - 5.58
73. Illinois - 5.81
79. Nebraska - 5.84
91. Purdue - 6.07
103. Rutgers - 6.33
113. Maryland - 6.52
Here are my computer picks: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ52s_XDq6UVZRGeN4Bk_d0JS-HpiDVVyoWTPxWtiKoKwWIo3WFB8sMKrQmd0h0PMmtDK7MwuVdyB-T/pubhtml
35-16-3 on the year so far
Computer picks for all games this weekend https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSS_JSif9jAtLiHi9ccVDDoAdWrf_KJc01v25tdLang-_Ca-ibC8EeoFBPyldoU_TeAjGLc0a6iFePg/pubhtml#
Computer likes VT -2.5 (yikes)
Penn state -6.5
SJS +20.5
C’mon, this is pretty funny.
There wasn’t enough 2019 data to make a projection last week.
Michigan has a slight statistical advantage in most yardage categories but Illinois has advantages in rushing efficiency and offensive/defensive scoring efficiency. This is likely due to Michigan’s lost fumbles when in scoring position.
I hope you’re correct.
Thanks for your input.
The question on that issue is: does the signal outweigh the noise?
I agree. It is reasonable to expect SOME improvement, and that will change the outlook.
My point is only that if we keep playing like this, 3-9 is within the realm. I share your sentiment generally, just putting the on field performance to date into perspective.
It will fix itself once we fix things on the field.
I created a pace-adjusted score projection model for any FBS v FBS opponent, then ran a mock 16 team playoff using the AP poll for seeding. Aside from the spicy first round matchups (Mich/OSU and Oklahoma/Texas) the real takeaway is that Wisconsin defeats Georgia, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and LSU in succession to take home the Week 3 College Football Tournament Championship: https://cfbstatnation.com/college-football-tournament-after-week-3/
I wasn’t blown away by Justin Fields throwing downfield once FAU started playing defense. I’d beware the backdoor cover depending on how long garbage time lasts.
I mis-typed my pick which is Maryland -1.5. I suspect you also meant Syracuse +2. What’s your read on that game?
Selfish plug for my prediction machine website: http://cfbstatnation.com