Michigan #12 in CFP Rankings

Submitted by Mr. Yost on

OSU - #3

Iowa - #5

MSU - #9

(Michigan is now the second 2-loss team as they're behind #11 Stanford. That said, the Wolverines will jump Stanford with a win over OSU, and assuredly with a win over Iowa).

MGoBoard
Football

Mr. Yost

November 17th, 2015 at 10:04 PM ^

We still would have to beat Iowa!

They're #5

Go look at Stanford's schedule and tell me they can do better than a #3 and a #5 win and then come back to me.

Stanford is irrelevant to Michigan. It's the Big 12 teams and ND that we need to worry about. Our schedule is FAR better than Stanford's if we win out.

They play jack shit and Notre Dame at home. Sure they may get a Pac 12 championship game...but again, better than #3 and #5? Nope.

We have a chance to give TWO undefeated teams their first losses of the season!

Joined: 07/25/2011

MGoPoints: -9898220

Mr. Yost

November 18th, 2015 at 12:07 AM ^

If you want to use it...use this and have a ball:

 http://myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/

Stanford
 
Michigan
 
 

  Div I - FBS Stanford beat USC 41 - 31
  Div I - FBS USC beat Utah 42 - 24
  Div I - FBS Utah beat Michigan 24 - 17

Therefore, Stanford is better than Michigan in 2015

 

You know how stupid that sounds? They're ranking the best teams in the country...they're not trying to justify why Team A is better than Team B based on one game. There are many more factors. 

We lost to MSU, if OSU beats them by 30...does that mean we're going to get destroyed by OSU? No.

Michigan and Stanford, by all accounts...are neck and neck. So it's just a matter of what happens from this point forward. Michigan has the better schedule moving forward and thus a better opportunity to be ranked higher. It's that simple.

But you can be debbie downer if you want to...we can see in this thread alone that you're on an island with your b/s thought process.

Joined: 07/25/2011

MGoPoints: -9898220

Tony Soprano

November 18th, 2015 at 5:49 AM ^

That is why decisions on which teams are included need to be eliminated.   The playoffs absolutely need to expand to 8 games, with each of conference's (P5) champion automatically in.  

Joined: 02/27/2010

MGoPoints: 653

ijohnb

November 18th, 2015 at 9:20 AM ^

the transitive property has some value, though it can misguide at times.  In this case though, what is baffling is that the transitive property factor is so strong but appears to have been completely dismissed.  Northwestern kind of manhandled Stanford though the score was relatively low, and Northwestern did not even belong on the same field against Michigan.  That is why I am particularly puzzled.  Michigan loses at No. 14 Utah and against a Top 10 MSU outfit on what was obviously a fluke.  Stanford loses to NW and an unranked Oregon club at home and they are ahead of us, with the strong transitive property in our favor?  Come again?  If Utah was ahead of us I could buy it because of head to head.  If they were focussed on the Top 7 to the detriment of the rest of the rankings it could be a simple one week oversight but if not, I don't really think it is explainable.  Perhaps Willingham is a very influential committee member and pulled rank?  It would explain both the Stanford ranking and the very obvious ND favortism.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 69986

Tony Soprano

November 17th, 2015 at 10:28 PM ^

Jeff Long, the CFP chair, said they spent a lot of time on the top 7, which told me that they didn't spend much time on 8-25, other than maybe checking final scores.  If it comes down to Stanford vs. Michigan for the final spot, they will certainly evaulate both teams very thoroughly and note Michigan's dominant victory over Northwestern vs. Stanford's loss to them.  

Joined: 02/27/2010

MGoPoints: 653

Voltron Blue

November 17th, 2015 at 10:30 PM ^

But.........Stanford would likely balance the ledger with a win over Utah in that scenario.  If they win impressively (even if not 38-0)........

I wouldn't trust the committee with a 10 foot pole to make the just decision there.

Joined: 01/16/2009

MGoPoints: 4054

alum96

November 17th, 2015 at 11:11 PM ^

Yeah I agree Stanford is not irrelevent.  Win over OSU by UM and win over ND by Stanford would be a wash (3 v 4).  Win over Iowa vs win over Utah sounds like big advantage to UM but they could say Stanford beat a team UM could not and Utah and Iowa are not that far apart.  UM would have road loss to  Utah as a mark and Stanford would have road loss to NW as a mark.

I think both Utah and Stanford winning out introduces a coin flip ending between Michigan (if it wins out) and either of those schools and it would be controversial either way.  It's not "clear cut" like Mr. Yost is presenting.

Best case scenario is Utah loses to UCLA, Stanford beats ND, and then P12 south rep (UCLA or USC or Utah) beats Stanford in P12 championship.  That leaves P12 with a 3 loss winner.  A 2 loss P12 vs a 2 loss B10 is going to be about looking at entire resume. 

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82455

Mr. Yost

November 18th, 2015 at 12:12 AM ^

They have PROVEN that's not their thought process.

Using your same thought process...they could say Michigan is better than Stanford because we crushed Northwestern and Stanford lost to them.

So what are you saying? It's literally the same thing.

The transitive property doesn't work and they've proven time and time again that they don't use it.

Michigan lost on the road to Utah in the first game of the year, Stanford lost on the road to NW in the first game of the year. Michigan beat NW...Stanford could be Utah. It's not that complicated.

Michigan will have beaten #3 and #5...Stanford cannot compete with that. #4 and #13 is not the same. And Utah could easily drop further with UNC moving up. They don't have a ranked team left on their schedule while teams below them have potential big wins (like UNC).

Stanford beating a then 3-loss team is NOT the same as Michigan knocking off two undefeated teams in a row. What world are you living in?

Joined: 07/25/2011

MGoPoints: -9898220

Voltron Blue

November 18th, 2015 at 12:23 AM ^

I think you're overconfident.  I'm sure *most* here (prob the vast majority here) would agree that your scenario is the way it *should* play out...

 

But #3 and #5 vs. #4 and a #13 that beat us (AND a one spot head start) is at least close enough that it's completely within the realm of possibility that the committee could make the "wrong" decision here....ESPECIALLY if we win close games and Stanford wins easily.  

 

To put it differently, you're so adamantly confident that surely you'd lay big odds...let's say 10:1...that if this exact scenario unfolds, the committee is picking Michigan.  I'd say I expect the committee to pick Michigan, but I'd take those odds all day.  

 

I am curious about your "they have PROVEN that's not their thought process" comment.  Aren't they on record saying that performance against common opponents is a consideration?  And while the transitive property is flawed, performance against common opponents is still a data point that is informative in a world where there aren't enough games (/ too many teams) for a more objective view on team quality.

Joined: 01/16/2009

MGoPoints: 4054

funkywolve

November 18th, 2015 at 12:29 AM ^

if they get to the conference championship game, they'll be ranked higher than 13.  There's still a decent amount of games between teams ranked ahead of them.  If they are 10-2 and heading to the Pac-12 title game they are easily ranked in the Top 10 and possibly as high as around 7th.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20219

Voltron Blue

November 18th, 2015 at 12:37 AM ^

Similarly, Iowa would presumably be #4 when we played them instead of #5 on account of us beating Ohio State, though quoting rankings at the time of playing gets dicey and hard to follow on this here board.  But point taken (though Mr Yost thinks they'll move down because others will have higher quality wins and jump them)...I agree with you.  

Joined: 01/16/2009

MGoPoints: 4054

Its me Dave

November 18th, 2015 at 8:36 AM ^

We have a chance to give TWO undefeated teams their first losses of the season!

The wildest thing about this is that we're not playing just to spoil OSU and Iowa's seasons - we're playing to advance ours.  I don't think anyone dared imagine that last August.

Joined: 07/30/2011

MGoPoints: 2447

Stu Daco

November 17th, 2015 at 10:05 PM ^

If Michigan and Stanford both win out, there is a 0% chance they stay ahead of us unless Iowa collapses.

Joined: 08/23/2015

MGoPoints: 8748

UMForLife

November 17th, 2015 at 10:03 PM ^

If we beat PSU on the road and OSU, we will be ahead of Stanford even if they win the next two. We want them to beat ND. Stanford is perplexing, but we will jump everyone. Stanford does not have similar schedule as PAC-12 does not have undefeated team in championship.

Joined: 11/04/2013

MGoPoints: 63393

LJ

November 17th, 2015 at 10:07 PM ^

Eh, I don't think it's at all impossible for two teams that win to shift places.  Didn't OSU jump TCU at the last minute last year due to the strength of their late-season wins?

Joined: 07/05/2008

MGoPoints: 18306

ESNY

November 17th, 2015 at 10:09 PM ^

wins over 2 undefeated, top 5 teams would easily be enough to jump them (compared to their theoretical wins over a one loss and a two loss team). We would have two common opponents and have split those games. Our 2nd loss would be better than their second loss and we would have stronger wins.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Joined: 11/06/2008

MGoPoints: 12310

Avon Barksdale

November 17th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^

If we win out and Stanford wins out, we would jump them. We have one mutual opponent and it is Northwestern. We all know how that turned out. We would also end the season with wins over Penn State, #3, and #5. They would end the season with over Cal, #4, and like #18-#20 USC more than likely.

The keys are the same: root for OSU, root for Iowa, win out and everything will work out for us. We would be in or in the Rose Bowl. Either one of those would be a phenomenal first year for Harbaugh.

Joined: 04/27/2013

MGoPoints: 12859

alum96

November 17th, 2015 at 11:13 PM ^

Utah could advance out of the south and if Stanford wins out that is a win over Utah and the common opponent thing becomes a wash of 1:1.

It's not as simple as people are making it out to be. 

Beating OSU and beating ND would be a wash as well.

Also Iowa could lose to Neb for all we know and they'd fall 5-6.  So there are a lot of moving parts.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82455

bj dickey

November 17th, 2015 at 10:53 PM ^

Osu will be 2 or 3 after beating state. Iowa may well be 4 next week I don't see them staying behind Nd if they are undefeated after regular season. So were talking about the chance of beating the number 2 or 3 team and the number 3 or 4 team in the country in consecutive weeks. That's a huge IF. IF we do that, there is now doubt we will be the top 2 loss team. Long just said there was talk of moving Alabama ahead of Clemson. That's an indication they are not necessarily wrapped in one bad loss (utah) or another (staee). Even I'd Nd wins out, which I doubt, we still stand a decent chance of getting ahead of them by end of championship game.

Joined: 10/03/2014

MGoPoints: 1416