Mich-OSU Common Opponent #2: Penn St

How much does comparison to common opponents matter? Ultimately not an awful lot, but it does allow us to observe some trends.

When Penn St played Michigan they were outgained by 295 total yards, more than double (268-563). When PSU played OSU they were +30 (482-452). Michigan controlled the game against PSU with 28 more total plays on offense (79-51), whereas PSU had 20 more plays on offense than OSU (80-60).

These raw numbers show a huge advantage to Michigan. However, when we look at total yards per play things suddenly get surprisingly similar: Michigan was +1.8 ypp against PSU (7.1-5.3) while OSU was +1.5 ypp against PSU (7.5-6.0). Hmm...not all that different.

OSU & PSU had identical success rates when they played (45%), whereas Michigan’s success rate was more than 20 points better than PSU on October 15 (54% to 33%). So how then could OSU average more yards per play against PSU than Michigan did? Yep, explosive plays: OSU 21.7% against PSU to Michigan’s 13.9%. (Incidentally, PSU’s explosive play rate against each was almost the same: 9.8% vs Michigan; 10.0% vs OSU.)

Let’s break it down.

(FancyStats boxscore for Michigan vs Penn St per Bill Connelly)

(FancyStats boxscore for Ohio St vs Penn St per Bill Connelly)

RUN OFFENSE

Well, of the 24 total summary conclusions (6 common opponents x 4 categories) this one is bound to be the biggest blowout of all.

Even if Ohio St ran the ball well against PSU, it was certain that they would not match the 423 non-sack rushing yards @ 7.8 per that Michigan did to PSU. That OSU’s struggles in the run game continued made this comparison incommensurate.

OSU ran for only 111 yards @ 4.6 per, and I’m a bit surprised the average was that high. This was of course aided by a 41-yard TD run. Anybody can get a fluky play, so if you take out the fluky play you’re going to get closer to the true substance. Therefore, if you take away the longest run for each team the difference is more stark: Michigan ran for 356 @ 6.7 per and OSU ran for only 70 yards @ 3.0 per. That was the true substance.

Michigan was stuffed (TFL or no gain) only 16% of carries whereas OSU was stuffed on nearly half of its rush attempts (46%). Look at the FancyStat boxscore, Michigan’s rushing numbers are all deep in the green whereas most of OSU’s are in the red (the deeper the red = the more spankings you get).

Run offense against Penn St: Humongous, tremendous, epic, downright embarrassingly glorious advantage to Michigan

PASS OFFENSE

Because Michigan ran the ball so well, they didn’t need to throw. Therefore, the counting stats are not a good representation here; we’ll have to rely on the rates.

McCarthy completed 71% of his passes (above average) but only for a below-average 5.6 per pass attempt (sacks included). Stroud completed 77% of his passes and 9.5 per pass attempt (above average).

Michigan didn’t throw the ball downfield as much (didn’t need to): only 5.4 air yards per pass with 38% of attempts at or behind the LOS. Yet they were pressured on 33% of pass attempts and threw a pick (the doinky-doink double-helmet pick 6).

OSU threw the ball 9.8 air yards per pass, only 21% at or behind the LOS, yet were pressured on only 8% of pass attempts, despite PSU knowing it was coming. And threw zero INTs.

Ohio St averaged 13.6 yards per completion to Michigan’s 8.5. Michigan didn’t need to pass the ball to have success against PSU, but every indication is that OSU was more effective passing the ball despite being one-dimensional.

Pass offense against Penn St: Somewhat strong advantage to Ohio St

RUN DEFENSE

Penn St struggled to find consistent success rushing the ball against both Ohio St and Michigan. They ran for 120 yards @ 6.0 per against Michigan and 129 yards @ 4.3 per against OSU. Again, if we take out their longest run (Clifford’s 62-yard run against Michigan and Kaytron Allen’s 27-yard run against OSU), PSU went for 58 yards @ 3.1 against Michigan and 102/3.5 against OSU.

PSU did run for 5+ yards on 40% of its carries against OSU (very slightly above average), but only 25% against Michigan (well below average).

However, against Michigan they ran for 2.7 yards before contact (1.6 vs OSU) and 2.3 yards after contact (1.7 vs OSU).

Now we’re splitting hairs which means it’s time to call it even.

Run defense against Penn St: Both were about equally effective

PASS DEFENSE

Penn St completed only 41% of passes against Michigan for only 4.8 yards per pass attempt (sacks included) resulting in 148 passing yards.

Penn St completed 68% of passes against Ohio St for 7.1 yards per pass attempt (sacks included) resulting in 353 passing yards.

OSU pressured PSU as well as Michigan did. PSU’s sacks/dropback: 5.8% vs OSU, 5.9% vs Michigan; pressure rate: 39% vs OSU, 32% vs Michigan. And Ohio St caused more havoc resulting in three interceptions to Michigan's none. But this doesn’t nullify how much more effective Michigan was against PSU’s passing game.

Pass defense against Penn St: Strong advantage to Michigan

 

Several people on this board suggested that Penn St is designed in such a way as to be more competitive against Ohio State’s style of play than Michigan’s. If true, it gives OSU a built-in disadvantage against PSU when compared to Michigan. For our next common opponent, the built-in disadvantage swings to the Michigan side of things…