Keys to The Game from Bill Connelly
Don't think I've ever posted from my phone before but should be fine.
Bill C has 3 keys for a Michigan upset.
1) Red zone opportunities. Obviously, but still interesting because OSU isn't actually great scoring TDs in the red zone. Michigan's best bet is probably playing bend but don't break. Michigan's O has been poor in the red zone but has gotten better.
2) OSU's D is mediocre on passing downs. This is also when Cade is at his best. Michigan needs a successful running game to have a chance but of course we're going to need to pass. If Michigan can stay on a pretty good schedule, Cade should have success throwing.
3) OSU offense surprisingly poor on 3rd & long. They don't get into many 3rd and longs and they're far and away the best offense in the country in 3rd & 6 or fewer situations, but Michigan needs to get them off schedule at least sometimes and kick them off the field.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
So many keys it looks like a janitor’s keyring.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
Three? Between finishing at Huron and starting at the U of M, I worked as a janitor at the UM Main Hospital--one of the best, most grounding, important experiences of my life, as it happened. Had a tidy pile of keys, including the one that took me into the Psych Unit where once--no lie--a bunch of adolescent girls decided that I was Mick Jagger and chased me into the elevator.
I know, I know--you young studs all have your cool stories; some of us relicts from the 70s and 80s have our own sweet tales to tell!
November 26th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
My college coach once displayed his heavily laden key rings to a couple of us, and expounded on his theory that you can judge the real trust and authority an organization has in an employee by the number of keys they provide. We all agreed that was a pretty decent indicator, but I pointed out that the implication was the most powerful person in the world was the head janitor for the World Trade Towers.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
Can anyone make that wintery mix arrive a few hours earlier then predicted?
November 26th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
It is more probable that light snow could start as soon as noon but much more likely during the second half of the game.
November 26th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
I'd suggest a thermos full of martinis (shaken, not stirred) for this game.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Be the better team. Win turnovers. Win penalties. Control the ball on offense. Don’t make back breaking mistakes on defense. OSU is the better team on paper. Better teams lose to well coached, talented teams all the time. Be the better team on the field. It’s possible. Believe!
November 26th, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
That's "Sir" Billy Connelly to you.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
We need to stop giving up first downs on 2nd or 3rd and longs. Get off the damn field. Idk what it is w Macdonald and (Don Brown) but their defenses always gives up these damn plays
November 26th, 2021 at 11:13 AM ^
1) It's true. When OSU's offense has struggled in the red zone are the game you guys keep pointing out as hope for yourselves (PSU, Nebraska, Oregon...OSU didn't have any FGs against Oregon but multiple failed 4th down attempts in scoring range).
2) OSU's defense is vulnerable on passing downs not just against the pass but against the run. Michigan should be able to get some chunk rushing yards on passing downs like 2nd & 10 or 3rd & 6.
3) Wasn't aware that OSU's offense is poor on 3rd & long, though you're right I don't recall seeing them in that situation terribly frequently. Part of that may be because they may design to pick up half the yards on 3rd down because Day is not afraid to go for it on 4th & <5.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
People keep bringing up OSU having a "vulnerable" pass defense, but how much of that is padded by yardage from teams who pass a lot because they've fallen behind 4 TD's and OSU plays soft defense? For example, people cite yardage total from the Purdue game, but that game wasn't really ever close; how much did Purdue rack up because OSU was willing to concede yards underneath because they knew Purdue couldn't stop their offense?
November 26th, 2021 at 11:28 AM ^
This is a very good point. Unfortunately.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
Both are true...Purdue got a lot of yards because OSU was up big quickly and the defense could play to the score.
But OSU does have vulnerabilities in the passing game, especially medium range over the middle or the WR screens as shown in FFFF.
November 26th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
Thank you, sir, for your insights.
November 26th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
Dunno. I'm used to seeing multiple all Americans in the OSU secondary, but I don't think any of them fit that particular bill this year.
November 26th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
FWIW, Against MSU in the first half you had 3 - 3rd downs (vs 7 tds) all short all converted.
November 26th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
Might be a statistical weakness of the result of a smaller sample size. They do well enough on 4th down conversions.
November 26th, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
The biggest key, IMO is to pressure Stroud. Hutchinson and Ojabo can facilitate that and if they are blocked, pressure could come from the middle. Make Stroud hurry his throws if he can't be hit or sacked.
November 26th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
That be nice but I would not count on this, Winovich and Gary couldn’t get sacks or even pressure holding is not called in college like it is the NFL, just ask Nick Saban that’s why he’s gone to having to outscore your opponents rather then win with defense.
November 26th, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^
Yeah I am fearing exactly this. If Maryland can negate them Im not sure what the NFL O line is going to do. Lets hope for the best. 2 40+ TD runs from the OSU running back are what keep running through my mind. Hell bent DEs charging up field while our DTs and LBs are left with a running back that averages 8 yards a carry.
November 26th, 2021 at 12:11 PM ^
Agreed with these points (hard not to, pretty straight forward). I would also add special teams to the list as well. Jay has been excellent at scheming up momentum changing plays throughout the course of the season. I think it's likely he'll scheme up some clever calls at the right time, and if they hit that could swing the tide in our favor.
Also defensively, I think it might make sense to deploy some Iowa State 4-2-5 spread packages with a third safety on the field in their base formations to combat OSU's super wide spread. Hopefully we see a lot of Hill/Moore and rotation between Hawkins/Moten. We've seen that defense be effective in the BigXII and OSU runs a pretty similar scheme as Texas/OU/OK St.
November 26th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
Check. Check. Check.
November 26th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
Bill C. is sleeping on the 21 special teams points we will need.
November 26th, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
So to translate:
1) Score touchdowns while forcing them to kick FGs
2) Exploit they passing defense
3) Stop them on first down
November 26th, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^
Last time we beat them 40-34, we are going to have to score points to beat them and a lot of them period.
November 26th, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^
Keys to the game from CTSgoblue:
1) Set expectations exceptionally low. We’ve won twice in 20 years, and only one of those was against a good team.
2) Choose your alcohol carefully. You’ll be drinking a lot of it.
3) Schedule some fall yard work for the second half so you don’t have to hate-watch as we get further and further behind.
Just kidding (kind of). Let’s win this MF thing.