Bowl Projections: UM in Fiesta Bowl

Submitted by jtmc33 on September 7th, 2011 at 10:14 AM!/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Fiesta Bowl:   Michigan versus Texas A&M    "Michigan the Big 10's second best team"   He has Nebraska in the Rose bowl

Wow, looks like we have a (way-to-early) true believer in the main stream media.  Hope he's right, but let's try to stop Floyd and ND's 500+ yards of offense before we book our flights to Arizona

(However, I'd like a chance at T A&M --- revenge for the 1996 Alamo (?) Bowl loss)



September 7th, 2011 at 10:20 AM ^

OSU would need to beat the hell out of Wisconsin and then lose a few games for them to take two out of our division, IMO.

Then again, bowl projections are just ridiculous in September and I should just be happy we're getting talked about as a possibility.


September 7th, 2011 at 11:39 AM ^

If Michigan, OSU, and Wisconsin finished 10-2 (one 11-2 or 10-3 after the BTCG) I could see them picking Michigan over the other options. At that point, all of your options are good enough and I'd think that Michigan would draw the largest crowd after the last few years, plus Denard == ratings. If Nebraska loses that game, though, the Fiesta bowl would pick Nebraska to pit them against Oklahoma/Texas.


September 7th, 2011 at 11:44 AM ^

If Wisconsin/Nebraska are playing, the loser could very well be right up there with the 3/4 exemption, depending on what happens in the SEC. Weird stuff could happen, although I do agree that Michigan is a plausable pick since it's been five years plus Denard.


September 7th, 2011 at 10:21 AM ^

Yikes!  I'd rather fly under the radar this year than get this type of press.

Sparty has already counted the game against UM in the win column and I'd like to keep it that way...until after the game of course when they've found that they've lost.


September 7th, 2011 at 10:23 AM ^

I click on every one of these stories around the interwebs but always have the same feeling... so glad we can predict how this will all turn out after 2 quarters and change of the season under our belts.


September 7th, 2011 at 10:29 AM ^

Third place teams with a low number of losses and a high rank usually get into BCS at-large bids over losers of championship games in the same conference.  The late loss typically causes the loser to fall behind the third place team in the rankings.

Duval Wolverine

September 7th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^

If the defense can pressure the QB with the front four and added blitz packages we may have a chance to beat alot of teams this year!  Maybe we should try more stunts and psycho packages like the packers use!


September 7th, 2011 at 10:27 AM ^

Sounds great to me!  I'd love to travel to Tempe in the dead of winter.

Sorry to go off the topic of your post, but this brings up an interesting point, how will the bowl selection work now that we have a conference championship?  Since UM and Nebraska are in the same sub-conference, if Nebraska runs the table and plays in the Big 10 championship game and, for the sake of argument, beats a 2 loss team, Nebraska would obviously play in the Rose Bowl (or the BSC title game).  Would the team who lost to Nebraska be the second best Big 10 team for purposes of bowl selection? 

I apologize if this was already posted, but I didn't see it anywhere.


September 7th, 2011 at 11:16 AM ^

The top 3 bowl teams choosen were all from the Western Division. Auburn, Arkansas, and Alabama.  I'd say it has to do more with rankings than anything else.  The bowls can pick whoever they want, within being close enough to the next slot reason.  So if Michigan was 11-1, and Nebraska was 13-0 (or 10-2 vs. 12-1 or something), Nebraska could still go to the Rose/Championship game, and Michigan could be a BCS selection, in a given year.


September 7th, 2011 at 11:33 AM ^

The gist of it (as far as BCS bids go) is that you want to lose your division, not the championship game, for an at-large spot. Three teams have lost their championship and gone on to the BCS: Oklahoma to the championship game in 2003, and then Alabama and Florida in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

Also, having a championship game seemed to really hurt a conference before 2006, when the fifth BCS game was added, and does not seem to have a noticeable effect since then.

The SEC was awarded an at-large bid in 8/13 years. 2/8 went to championship game losers.

The BXII was awarded an at-large bid in 4/13 years. 1/4 went to championship game losers.

The B1G was awarded an at-large bid in 10/13 years.

The Pac was awarded an at-large bid in 3/13 years.

Since 2006, the SEC and B1G have had at-large bids each year; the Pac has had one, the BXII two.


September 7th, 2011 at 10:27 AM ^

I like it, but wouldn't they take the loser of the Big Ten championship game (Seeing that Nebraska and Michigan are in the same division)? I'd think that would "normally" be the 2nd best team in the conference. Not necessarily always the case, but Wisconsin is looking pretty strong so far.


September 7th, 2011 at 10:30 AM ^

I don't think that is the case.  Say that one division winner is 7-4.  Say in the other division, Nebraska is 11-0, and Michigan is 10-1 (just far argument sake).  Michigan would probably get the nod.  I don't think there is any bowl bonus for finishing second. 


September 7th, 2011 at 10:36 AM ^

What i figured, to be honest. It's also why I said "normally". That is the exact scenario I just played out in my mind (Nebraska and Michigan, 1 and 2). One would have to think about an Iowa or Wisconsin having a big year. Or possibly those other guys that wear the red and white.

Bill in Birmingham

September 7th, 2011 at 11:41 AM ^

FWIW, it happened last year with the SEC West. Auburn went to the MNC game and Arkansas played in a BCS game. Of course last year was really unusual in that the top five teams in the SEC West (Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State) were probably all better than the best team in the East. In other words, while I agree with your point most of the time, there can be fairly common exceptions.

Should Be Working

September 7th, 2011 at 10:27 AM ^

Even if Michigan makes it to the Fiesta bowl, Mark May and Lou Holtz will not be impressed with that accompishment. However, they are going to impressed with Notre Dame's bid for the bowl.


September 7th, 2011 at 10:39 AM ^

That's a little optimistic based on what we saw last week.  I see this team going 8-4 or so and playing in one of the Florida-based 2nd-tier bowl games, which would be awesome IME. 


September 7th, 2011 at 11:06 AM ^

I am sorry but that is crazy.  Unless our defensive line makes some serious improvements over the next two months.  

Essentially how they have it playing out is Michigan only has one loss in the B10 and that is to Nebraska (B10 winner).  Second place Wisconsin has one loss going into the B10 title game and loses to Nebraska.  


September 7th, 2011 at 12:27 PM ^

I really want to believe this team can be top 3 in the B1G this year, but I just can't see it yet.  Beat ND and MSU(Not that MSU is that good, but if Michigan can't beat them ,there's no way they are top tier)  and I might hop on the band wagon.