B-Ball - 2 wins away from expected NIT berth?
Michigan Basketball currently sits at 14-10 (4-7) after a nice 3-1 run with two of those three wins on the road (MSU and PSU) and the one loss after a competitive game on the road against the #1 team in the nation. There is some reason for optimism right now, yet I can't stop thinking about how badly I want to see the guys just make sure they are in the NIT.
This is my worst case scenario that would still have Michigan earning an NIT bid, with a built in assumption that we can still get into the NIT with a .500 record (which, for example, North Carolina did last year). With our 14-10 record, 7 games remaining on the regular season schedule, and at a minimum 1 B1G Tourney game, we can go 16-16 with 2 more regular season wins and a first round exit from the conference tourney.
Here is the remaining schedule (pasted from mgoblue.com)
| Wed., Feb. 9 |
vs. Northwestern *  |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Feb. 12 |
vs. Indiana * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| Wed., Feb. 16 |
at Illinois * |
Champaign, Ill. | 7:30 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Feb. 19 |
at Iowa |
Iowa City, Iowa | 3:30 p.m. CT |
| Wed., Feb. 23 |
vs. Wisconsin * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Feb. 26 |
at Minnesota * |
Minneapolis, Minn. | 3:30 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Mar. 5 |
vs. Michigan State * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 2:00 p.m. ET |
I'd like to see which games the odds-makers actually have us favored for, but I can't imagine it's more than 2 or 3. I feel much more confident about the game on Mar 5th than I did 2 weeks ago, but it's not a sure bet by any stretch of the imagination. While it is not outside the realm of possibility to pick up a win on the road at Minnesota, Iowa, or Illinois, I wouldn't bank on it (save maybe Iowa). Even though we play them at home, Wisconsin should be a heavy favorite against us. In my opinion, these next two games at home (Northwestern and Indiana) are vitally important to solidifying our postseason chances.
Of course, in this scenario where we go 16-16, beating Northwestern and Indiana, but lose our final 6 games, I could see the NIT committee passing us by. So maybe we not only need to beat Northwestern and Indiana but also need to pick up at least one more win to get us to 17-15 or better. If so, which team do you think Michigan has the best chance of knocking off? My money is on either Iowa or MSU.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:36 AM ^
how about we just win the Big Ten Tournament and put all that nonsense aside
YEAH
February 7th, 2011 at 11:37 AM ^
Just a quick edit, we beat PSU on the road yesterday.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:40 AM ^
Heh, good catch, thanks.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:01 PM ^
Ken Pomery has "odds" on the remaining games. I think preseason he had us winning 15 games.
http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Michigan
February 7th, 2011 at 11:39 AM ^
Our team is such that they can beat just about every team on the remaining schedule, but could also lose to just about any of those teams. I generally feel that we need 3 wins minimum to assure an NIT bid. The real question: What would we need to do to have a good shot at a tourney bid? 5-2, with at least 1 win in the B10 or would even that not be enough?
February 7th, 2011 at 11:48 AM ^
5-2 with wins @ Minnesota and vs. Wisconsin might be enough.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:24 PM ^
I think 5-2 gets us in no matter the distribution of the wins. With our OOC schedule (only losses to quality tourney-bound teams) I've thought 9-9 would do it all along. That would also put us at 7-3 in that "last ten games" metric the committee likes to use.
That being said, while I think it is doable, I'm certainly not expecting it and would be happy just to see the team get NIT eligible and win a few more conference games to boost their confidence going into next year.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^
The way I figure it, win the 3 games we should win (Ind, NW, @Iowa) and then split the last 4 (@Ill, Wisc, @Minn, MSU). The two that would help us the most would be Ill and MSU. Wisc and Minn should probably end up ahead of us no matter what. That would put us 5th in the conference. First round bye, play Minn in the first game, then OSU in the second. That might be enough if we can keep it close with OSU a third time. If we end up 6th, then we can play the last place team, then either Wisconsin or Purdue, then the other (or hope for an upset) before playing OSU again. Beating Wisconsin or Purdue could get us in as we'd have two wins in the tourney. Beating both, would almost assuredly get us in, I think.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:58 PM ^
For post season selection purposes would we be better off having a different scenario take place and not getting bye? That was we get to play another winnable game to improve our record.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:17 PM ^
I can see that being helpful. Would you rather start 5th and play the 4th best team or start 6th and play th 3rd best team? I think finishing higher and better probability of beating a team ranked higher than us outweighs the extra win against the worst team in the conference. If we are assuming we beat the 3rd/4th ranked team, then finishing 6th would be better, but in terms of giving us the best opportunity, I think finishing 5th is better.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^
Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa and MSU are all winnable games. The other ones are going to be tough. Knocking off Minnesota with how they are playing, could be possible.
February 7th, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^
February 7th, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^
NW - win
IN - win
@ IL - loss
@ IA - win
WI - win
@ MN - loss
MSU - win
We will be favored in all of our remaining home games (except Wisky) and underdogs on the road (though the IA game will be very close to even odds). We will end up with a regular season record of 9-9 in the B10 which will tie us for 6th.
We will play IA in the first round of the B10 tournament and we will win that game, bringing our total record to 20-12 going into round two. If we win our second round game, we will definitely make the dance. If we lose our second round game, we will be on the NCAA bubble with an RPI in the high 40s, two wins against ranked teams and no bad losses.
The B10 will get at least 6 and possibly 7 teams into the NCAA tournament. The epic collapes of MSU has left the 6-spot wide open and it is between UofM, PSU and NW. It is certain that one of these three teams will make the NCAA. If PSU can steal two games from NW and we beat NW this Wed, NW will be out and both PSU and UofM will make the final cut.
BKFinest it.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^
I'm drinking the kool-aid too but the Wisky game is far, far away from a game we can assume a win. Maybe hope, but that is a damn good team that spanked the MSU team we still barely beat. 4-3 or 3-4 are more reasonable expectations, and I think they will do it.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:33 PM ^
Wisky is a very different team at home than on the road (even moreso than most teams). They are nearly unbeatable in the Kohl Center but have lost so far this season @ UNLV, IL, MSU and PSU. And, even if we lose the Wisky game, we still could beat IL or MN on the road and end up in the same position.
February 7th, 2011 at 2:55 PM ^
Problem is Wisconsin has kicked our ass the last few years at Crisler. I definitely think stealing a win at Minnesota or Illinois is more likely than beating the Badgers at home.
February 7th, 2011 at 3:43 PM ^
The former Big Ten Wonk (John Gasaway) says: "Bo Ryan’s team has in fact been every bit as bipolar in terms of home vs. road performance as your run-of-the-mill average team."
February 7th, 2011 at 12:54 PM ^
We have a lot of "good" losses, we need at least one "good" win, and I think you're right on the money. We need to beat Illinois or Wisky to have a shot...
I just tossed up a quick diary based on Ken Pom that outlines the case for this...
February 7th, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^
much better chance of beating Minnesota minus Joseph than Wisconsin, no?
February 7th, 2011 at 4:21 PM ^
But we've got to play Minn on that stupid elevated court.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:24 PM ^
Not that Ken Pomeroy knows all, but kenpom.com has us ranked 54th and going 3-4 down the stretch with wins against Northwestern, Indiana, and MSU at home. The next best chance is for us to upset Iowa at Iowa.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:37 PM ^
The next two games will tell us a lot. These are very winnable games against teams that spanked us in their home arenas. Not coincidentally, we played probably our worst games of the season in those two contests (save for maybe Purdue at home and UTEP in the Legends Classic). I'd like to think we will win both, with a little bit of payback in store. On the road against Illinois is probably a loss, but I think Iowa is a team we can beat no matter the locale. Wisconsin is also a very probable loss, but the finale two of MSU at home and Minny on the road are games I think we can take, though more likely we'll split them.
In my eyes, we most likely finish 4-3 which gets us an 8-10 conference record and 19-13 overall. Getting to the B10 semis before bowing out would put Michigan at 21-14 and firmly on the bubble, though I'm not sure it would be enough.
Either way you slice it, this is going to be a very good team in '11/'12.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^
Just a few of points, though.
First, Wisky is a beatable team away from the Kohl Center (see my post above).
Second, the way IN manhandled us in Bloomington was an anomaly. They are a 12-12 team with several losses to worse teams than us. They shot lights out in that game and we couldn't buy a basket. Also, their leading scorer Watford is now out with a broken hand. I am far more concerned with the NW game in A2 than the IN game.
Third, UTEP is not a bad team. They are in first place in CUSA with an 18-5 record and an RPI in the 50s just like us.
Finally, if we do go 4-3, then we will need to win our second round B10 tourney game. It won't be easy, but it certainly is not impossible. We nearly beat OSU last year and would have except for that very unlikely last second 3-pointer.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:57 PM ^
I agree that Wisky is much more of a beatable team when they're not at Kohl Center, however I think we have to look at that as a probable loss based off of history. But, a win is certainly a possibility if Michigan plays up to its potential.
I, too, think the IU beatdown was a product of a terrible game played by Michigan and the terrible history Michigan has at Assembly Hall.
UTEP is a good team, yes, and despite that, Michigan could have won that game with a little better shooting. 30% from the field and 17% from deep doomed the Wolverines despite being tied at the half. Another interesting thing to note from that game was the FT disparity (26 for M, 9 for UTEP).
Like I said, if Michigan goes 4-3 to finish, it will need to win its first two games (and make the semis) in order to get a chance at dancin'. It's possible (and not totally out of the realm).
February 7th, 2011 at 1:56 PM ^
Please don't refer to beating Iowa as an upset. They've lost home games to South Dakota State and Long Beach State this year and their only true quality win was beating a crippled Michigan State team. I know Pomeroy projects us to lose, but it's only a two-point projected spread and Iowa's probability of winning is only 56%. He projects a game with similar possessions as a game at Crisler in which we beat Iowa by 14 points. I don't see the Hawk's Nest being a 16 point difference.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:48 PM ^
for Michigan. NCAA tourney? Not so much. Michigan lacks the quality wins(no win against RPI top 50), and have 2 bad losses against IU and Northwestern. They do have the 11th toughest schedule in the country which could help Michigan out as long as they have quality wins.
Obviously, the best way to get into the NCAA tourney is to win the Big 10 tourney.
February 7th, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^
But winning the next three games puts UM on the bubble. Anything less and I think we're looking at a good season culminating in the NIT. If Michigan can pull off those three victories and can avoid back to back losses after that they've got a chance at the tourney. This team has grown too much not to win 2 more games before the year is through.
February 7th, 2011 at 3:15 PM ^
remaining games. OSU frustrated me because the game was there for the taking--Morgan was asserting himself and demonstrating the fact--and some of the guys remained gun-shy about taking it to $ullinger and Co. Hopefully Bacari and the other coaches really got into their grills about it: this team no longer needs to wait for next year.
That said, young players tend to be erratic. The next two games should tell us a lot, as someone said above. But they will likely lay a few more eggs here.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:21 PM ^
As long as there is even a slight glimmer of a chance for the NCAA tournament, I don't want to think about the NIT.
February 7th, 2011 at 1:40 PM ^
I think we can take this discussion up one week from now. If we hold court this week vs Northwestern (a team that has given us trouble the last couple years) and Indiana (lost to on the road), we will be 16-10, 6-7 in conference, and likely have the NIT sealed up with a chance to realistically think about what it will take to get us into the tournament (20 wins usually is the magic number)...
I was really proud of how the team has fought hard on the road the last 3 games , beating MSU and PSU, losing a tough close game to OSU. However, we're still young and inconsistent, so we're not at the point where we can really feel amazing about winning the next two. The team's definitely confident right now though, and the players are growing up.
February 7th, 2011 at 2:06 PM ^
I'm a little uneasy about the next two. Not only will they come in full of confidence after beating us soundly in their places, but we only have two days of preparation for each one. Beilein is at his best when he has an extended amount of time to get ready. (We had four days off before the game at MSU, for instance.) This is a critical test.
February 7th, 2011 at 2:32 PM ^
I think we will beat IN easily (esp with Watford out), but the NW game makes me nervous. NW plays solidly every game. If we play well, we will win. But if we don't, they have enough talent to steal the game from us. NW will not beat themselves and is coming off a huge win over IL. We need to play well.
February 7th, 2011 at 3:48 PM ^
For what it's worth, Northwestern is 1-4 on the road in the Big 10, having beat Iowa by 19, having lost to MSU in OT, and having gotten beaten soundly by Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue...
February 7th, 2011 at 1:46 PM ^
If they can't beat Iowa to earn an NIT bid then they don't deserve one. Just because Basabe has a cool name and they walloped MSU doesn't mean we should mistake them for a legitimate power-conference basketball team. They are who we think they are!!!!!
February 7th, 2011 at 1:46 PM ^
For the NIT, I think 3 wins PROBABLY gets us in and a big ten tourney win makes us a lock.
I think people are being a little too optimistic about our NCAA tourney chances. Right now are best wins are @Clemson and @MSU, neither of which are tourney teams right now. We can probably erase the effect of the Indiana and Northwestern losses by beating them this week, but I don't think we get NCAA consideration unless we win 5 of 7 with two Big Ten Tourney wins. Overall that's gonna be AT LEAST 7-3 to close the season. Also, 2 of the 7 wins have to be against other tourney teams.
NIT is a more likely and realistic goal, but talking about the NCAA's is much more fun.
February 7th, 2011 at 4:01 PM ^
Let's get the next two wins at home to take us to 16-10 before we start speculation on this team doing anything over the last 5 games and the Big Ten tourney to warrant NIT or NCAA speculation. A nice win at PSU, now let's see if we have stepped up a notch or whether we will fall back against NW and Indiana at home.
February 7th, 2011 at 5:00 PM ^
Goals and objectives can be stated in various ways. I say a legitimate team goal should be placing particular focus or attention on ensuring no more sweeps such as the one suffered against OSU and PSU. Though this goal would be most challenging against WI and at Minnesota and at Illinois, achieving it would provide greater confidence going into the Big 10 tournament (beating every team at least once except PSU and OSU). This is a very challenging but achievable goal (obviously the team should try to win every game though).
This goal also includes winning at home against both NW and Indiana.
I like the content of this thread b/c the OP puts the window of opportunity in perspective. These next two games are huge, but that only makes this next game the most important of the season.
ONE GAME AT A TIME
It's clearly the sort of season where the game directly in front of the players becomes the biggest of the season. This is a much better place for a program than when these last games of the regular season have no meaning.
Go Blue, fellas! Beat Northwestern!
February 8th, 2011 at 2:13 AM ^
FYI, Michigan swept Penn State, not the other way around.