3/9 bracketology

Submitted by ish on March 9th, 2011 at 1:29 PM

quick update on today's bracketology, at least from lunardi's perspective.

he has us as an 11 seed.  his last four in are in the "first four."  there are two other 12 seeds (clemson and BC) meaning that as it stands there are at least 6 at-large teams behind us.

the bracket matrix has us as an 11 seed too, but because they average seeds, there are actually nine 11 seeds at the moment and we're number six of those nine.  better statistical minds will have to interpret that for me.

Comments

michgoblue

March 9th, 2011 at 1:41 PM ^

As of now, I am approaching it as follows:

If we win 1 in the B10, we are in.  I think that this is universally accepted.

If we lose on Friday, then things get dicey - we fall to squarely on the bubble, with probably about a 50% chance of getting in. 

So, all we have to do is take care of our own business and we will be fine. 

My one concern is that the team will have an emotional letdown after the big MSU game, and come out flat.  Hopefully Beilein will not let that happen, but with a young team, that isn't always easy to control.

joeyb

March 9th, 2011 at 1:45 PM ^

They've had almost a week to get ready. I think Beilein will make sure that they all realize what is on the line.

Even if we lose, I still think we are in unless there are a lot of non-at-large teams winning conference championships.

davking1980

March 9th, 2011 at 1:48 PM ^

and how they played in the Minnesota game, as well as how they jumped on State from the get go after a full week layoff, makes me confident that we will see Michigan's best effort against Illinois on Friday.

 

They very easily could have come out flat for each of these games for very different reasons and didn't.

mistersuits

March 9th, 2011 at 1:45 PM ^

We're rooting against all of those Big12 bubble teams today to really widen the gap between Michigan and the teams that would push us out.

Oklahoma St leads Nebraska at the half, which is great. Also hope that Colorado and Baylor go down today.

Two of the three ACC bubble teams will have to play each other in a de facto playin game. So that takes care of itself.

There are no mid-major bid thiefs to be had this year. Also great for us.

Lastly, teams we want to root against in their conference tournament - the only teams left that could pass Michigan (if we lose to the Illini): Alabama, Penn St, Memphis, Colorado St, USC, Washington St... and some of those are a loooong shot.

Braylon 5 Hour…

March 9th, 2011 at 2:11 PM ^

This matchup with Illinois is annoying due to their size up front and their length overall; Hardaway had a very difficult time even getting opportunities to shoot during the 2nd half of the last game.  We battled them well and are probably at an even higher confidence level (and on a neutral floor) than we were the last time. If Smotrycz can play well again that will go a long way. Win to avoid a play in game and to possibly get into a 7/10 matchup.

MaizeyBlue

March 9th, 2011 at 2:19 PM ^

Just a quick question regarding the tournament this year, I'm under the impression that the worst 4 teams have play-in games for the 16 seeds, and then the "Last 4 in, At Large teams" also play in Dayton.  How can Michigan State and Colorado be  11 seeds and have to play in that play-in game while both BC and Clemson are listed as 12 seeds?  Is it just a geographical issue?  Why not make Michigan state and Colorado 12 seeds?

 

Either way thats going to make those 5/12 matchups in the "1st Round" even more interesting.

 

preed1

March 9th, 2011 at 2:49 PM ^

because half of the play in games are set for auto qualifiers and half are set for at large bids. So bolgina tech vs hamburger university may have a playn game for a 16 seed, while msu vs clemson may play for a 12 seed.  Contrary to belief hamburger u < msu

zxcvbn

March 9th, 2011 at 3:07 PM ^

Clemson and BC were selected before MSU and Colorado as 11 seeds, but were switched to 12 seeds to accomodate the bracket. For instance, there might not have been anywhere they could be placed as an 11 seed without potentially facing another ACC opponent. 

jmblue

March 9th, 2011 at 2:42 PM ^

I'm confident.  Beilein is very good when he has extra prep time.  I think we'll get it done on Friday and seal the deal.

zxcvbn

March 9th, 2011 at 3:01 PM ^

If you look on the left hand side of the bracket matrix, it shows what seed they would be if the teams were seeded in that order, rather than by average seed in the individual brackets. This has Michigan as the fourth 11 seed.