Post Week 9: Yardage Analysis and Predictions + Score Predictor

Submitted by tpilews on November 3rd, 2010 at 1:13 PM

Post Week Analysis can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-8-yardage-analysis-and-predictions…

The analysis above for the Penn State game basically found that the only way UM was going to leave Happy Valley with a loss was for the offense to end up on the low end of the prediction and for PSU's offense to gain on the high end of UMs predicted defense. What happened was exactly that.

UMs offense low end was predicted 417 yards. UM gained 423 yards. PSU's offense gained 435 yards with a predicted high end of 438.

What is even more disturbing is that with the yards that PSU gained, they should have only scored around 28 points when you take their yards/point metric for their season average. PSU scored 41 points. This can only be attributed to PSU ridiculous starting field position. Once again, special teams woes have hurt the team. Blame could also be put on the defense for failure to get off the field. UM lost the time of possession by 15 minutes.

When looking at the PSU game and where UMs offensive and defensive efforts rank, we see much the same thing. PSU gained 29.13% more yards than their season average, which is good for 4th worst finish this season (46.28% vs. Indiana, 38.83% vs. UMass, 29.63% vs. MSU).

UMs offense gained 27.41% more yards than the PSU defense averages per game. Normally, you'd think that number was pretty good, except for the fact that, for the season, UMs offense is gaining almost 54% more yards than their opponents give up. That 27% mark is the offense's second lowest mark this season, only beaten out by 14.46% mark put up against MSU.

What's significantly dissappointing about the PSU game numbers? The disastrous showing by the offense and defense come after not only a two-week preperation window, but also after the offense's and defense's best games of the year against Iowa. It seemed there was progress being made on both sides, but the PSU game was a major let down.

 

Now, moving on to Week 10 of the college football season and UM showdown with Illinois.

Let's bring up the charts....

 

 

 

 

 

This game isn't looking too promising for Michigan. It looks like UM is going to need one of their better offensive days of the season AND one of their better defensive days of the season against Illinois. Perhaps if homefield advantage is worth 3 points, then we have a dead heat and only a bad defensive showing will spell doom for UM. That is, of course, given UMs offense gets back on track. It's going to be a tall task against the 15th ranked defense (yards/game) and 12th ranked scoring defense. The only bit of hope is that Iowa is the 12th ranked defense and 8th ranked scoring defense and UM had a good game on both sides of the field.

So, my prediction based on these statistics....

UM - 470 yards

Illinois - 460 yards

UM - 28

Illinois - 31

 

 

Comments

GBOD79

November 3rd, 2010 at 1:18 PM ^

I was actually expecting to see a bigger margin for Michigan to overcome. I think your prediction of 31-28 is a little low, but we will see. Thank you for your hard work and great posts!

VaUMWolverine

November 3rd, 2010 at 1:30 PM ^

but I just cant help it right now. I'm so in the middle of what and where this program should be headed right now. I've never felt like this. It stinks. I'll try to keep the negativity down. I will also probably be in front of the tv Saturday with my Michigan jersey on hoping for a win. Sorry. I'll be ok.

coachclen

November 3rd, 2010 at 1:57 PM ^

Isn't that really the most alarming aspect of Rod's tenure at Michigan? Say what you will about experience, but usually at some point during a season a team overachieves and plays above themselves. I'm not sure that has happened yet with Rod at the helm.

 

Maybe you could argue Utah, Wisconsin, or Minnesota in year one, but in the last two seasons Michigan has definitely not managed to put together a game where they exceed expectations. Gosh, it would be nice for that to happen Saturday. 

markusr2007

November 3rd, 2010 at 4:02 PM ^

this Illinois football team is white-hot right now, particularly on defense.

Weeks ago when the Illini were still schizophrenic and questioning their offensive mojo,  they blew PSU out of Beaver Stadium by 20 points - mainly because of solid Illini defense, PSU incompetence, a strong performance of Illini tailback Mikel Leshoure (119 yds rushing), and ridiculously good Illini special teams (4 for 4 on FGs including a 50 yarder) Illinois lost 2 fumbles in that game, but didn't pay a price for them.

I foresee Illinois with over 500 yards in total offense (split evenly running and throwing) against Michigan.

If Michigan has a shot to win this game, it could be on offense.  Terrell Pryor had 104 yards rushing and 2 TD passes against Illini in Champaign. Assuming he stays healthy, I'm thinking Denard Robinson will have another great game statistically against Martez Wilson and Co. 

Soulfire21

November 3rd, 2010 at 4:55 PM ^

If our defense shows like it has, then we don't stand a chance.  Scoring 36 PPG is good, but not good when you're consistently giving up 38-41 points to the opponent.

The Illini defense is good, the offense is solid, their special teams are great.  Also, Illinois -- a team that was worse, yes, worse than Michigan in 2008 and 2009 -- still found ways to blow us out and set all kinds of nasty records at the Big House in 2008.

I just hope our wet paper towel of a defense overachieves slightly, Illinois makes a couple mistakes (can I get a turnover, please?), and the offense clicks.

Also, I'll be in the student section, screaming my wolverine heart out.  I love it, even when the team isn't doing the greatest.

Here's to a good game!  There's no time to overachieve like the present.

Slinginsam

November 3rd, 2010 at 5:43 PM ^

Illinois shuts down Denard.  Michigan shuts down, period.

IL 33

UM 20

 

And the mob grows more restless.  This will make three straight seasons that freakin' Illinois, yeah, the former dormat, has beaten(blasted, to be honest) our beloved.

I cannot take much more of this.

Mfan1974

November 3rd, 2010 at 8:19 PM ^

Lloyd Brady.  The game at this point doesn't matter one way or the other. The predictable end draws near and the thought of , ahhhhh screw it this just sucks...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

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snow, yes thats a great idea. Freeze out the fan base and lets see if Denard and the 1.5 running backs we have left can run on ice!  What the hell has happened?