THE ESSENTIALS

*Oakland is playing today at 3:15 today against #118 Bradley. This wasn't expected to move the needle enough to wait on writing the preview, for reasons that'll become obvious as you read it. [UPDATE: They lost, 74-60, after trailing by 15 at the half.] Meanwhile, bring back Pioneer Pete.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

We're sticking with the starting lineup from the Bowling Green game until it changes. It might not take long for Hunter Dickinson to take over as the starting center. If you're looking for more post-BG content, this week's Ace Pod included two segments discussing the game with Alex Cook.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

This is now updated through three games. I previously noted that, through two games, not a single Golden Grizzly had a triple-digit O-Rating; now there's one! Also, their leading scorer from last year sat out the most recent game after being limited in the first two by a preseason shoulder injury.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Greg Kampe's Golden Grizzlies weren't very good last year—14-19 overall, 8-10 in the Horizon League, #239 on KenPom—and they were expected to be a bit worse off this season after losing three of their top five scorers. Then a COVID outbreak that hit nine players and five staffers, including Kampe, shut down practices for three weeks, giving Oakland mere days of on-court prep before opening a brutal non-conference schedule with three games in three days.

Kampe's preseason assessment of the situation was matter-of-fact:

Oakland University basketball has seven nonconference games to get ready for Horizon League play. Asked what would be an acceptable result in those seven games, coach Greg Kampe was blunt.

"0-7," he said.

The pessimism was well-founded; this isn't a coach trashing his team:

Oakland's prep for the season has barely gone further than basic offensive and defensive sets. There's been no time to install the sideline sets or more complexity on offense or defense. There's been little time for evaluation of personnel. Kampe said the team used its layoff to focus mostly on academics, rather than a whole lot of basketball. There were a handful of Zoom sessions to go over practice film, but not much. Almost the entire roster was quarantined in dorm rooms and apartments, having food delivered by the school that they couldn't even pick out.

The season thus far has been the mess Kampe anticipated. They trailed Xavier 53-12 at halftime of an opener they eventually lost 101-49; they followed that with an 80-53 defeat against #117 Toledo—the halftime score of that game was 43-20. Since they play #118 Bradley this afternoon—probably another loss [ed: yup]—they'll have very limited time to travel from the Xavier mini-tournament, rest, and get in any sort of game prep by Sunday evening.

The team's top threat heading into the season was 6'2 junior guard Rashad Williams, who averaged 19.5 points in 15 games last season after becoming eligible mid-year following a transfer from Cleveland State. While he wasn't at all efficient, making 40% of his limited twos and 32% of a remarkable volume of threes, he was able to take the lead on an offense that needed someone to drive play. His excellent free throw shooting and 41% three-point mark at CSU portended an uptick in effectiveness.

But Williams hurt his shooting shoulder in the practice time that took place pre-outbreak and is playing through an injury the Detroit News says may need postseason surgery. He didn't start the opener, and while he started yesterday, he's a combined 2-for-15 from the field while playing 13 and 11 minutes in the first two games, respectively. He's probably quite limited. [UPDATE: So limited, in fact, that he sat out Friday's game. I can't tell whether this is an effort to get him ready for Michigan or shutting him down.]

Williams dominates the ball when he's on the court despite the wonky shoulder. When he's on the bench, the primary ballhandlers are 5'11 junior Jalen Moore, who was a JuCo All-American last year, and 6'4 senior Kevin Kangu. Moore is turnover-prone but has been the team's most prolific passer and he's worked his way to the rim or the free throw line quite a bit this season. Kangu is 2/11 from the field with one assist and six turnovers; he was a bad shooter with a high turnover rate last year and also graded out poorly as a defender. Moore starts when Williams isn't available.

One player to watch is Western Illinois transfer Zion Young, who's off to a slow start this year but is a career 42% shooter from beyond the arc. Here's his chart from last season, via Synergy:

I recommend guarding that guy. Blake Lampmann, on the other hand, is an extreme Just A Shooter™ who's off to a 5-for-27 start from beyond the arc after only making 31% of his 143 threes last year.

Kampe is throwing everything out there; 12 players have seen at least 10% of the team's available minutes, nine are getting at least 30%, and nobody has been on the floor more than 70% of the time. No matter what, though, they're fielding an undersized lineup.

Junior Daniel Oladipo has played the majority of the minutes at center; he's 6'7/220 and hasn't blocked more than one shot in any of his 34 games at Oakland. When he's not at center, he's their biggest option at power forward, which usually features someone 6'6 or shorter. The largest backup is a 6'10, 215-pound freshman who's turning the ball over on a literal majority of his possessions. Trey Townsend, a 6'6/215 freshman starting at the four, has more turnovers (4) than made field goals (2) so far this season.

Writing more words about this rotation feels mean. The circumstances aren't their fault, anyway.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Updated for Friday's game.

Let's start with the good: Oakland gets to the line at a slightly above-average rate and almost never commit shooting fouls. They force some turnovers.

Everything else? Ah. So.

You see how Oakland's defensive eFG% goes off the chart? That's bad. Shooting 31% on twos? Very bad. Making 24% of their threes while they comprise 48% of the team's field goal attempts? Dire. Getting outrebounded even though their shots are essentially random loose ball generators? Suboptimal.

THE KEYS

Make shots. In the basket.

Stay healthy. Please.

Cover the KenPom spread and get out. This is M's lone non-conference game that has little upside other than providing a game setting that isn't an intra-squad scrimmage.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 26.

Practice is important, kids.