Win Total Recalibration, along with Seeding
With beating MSU this afternoon, Michigan has the signature win that Brian here at mgoblog and Dylan at umhoops have been pining for. As mentioned in the post above we are now at 16 kenpom. How would you recalibrate the win total, and the seeding?
So far, our record is 15 - 4, with 4 - 2 in the conference. Looking at the remaining schedule, the only loss I feel confident in predicting is Purdue. I suppose randomness means one more defeat beyond that. That would leave Michigan at 25 - 6 total, 14 - 4 in the Big 10.
- W vs. MD
- W @ Nebraska
- W vs. Rutgers
- L @ Purdue
- W vs. NW
- W vs. MN
- W @ NW
- W @ Wisconsin
- W vs. Iowa
- W vs. OSU
- W @ PSU
- W @ MD
Well sure, I've been drinking the koolaid, and am drunk on the win today. But Livers has really come on. With Livers starting, I don't really see a weakness in our starting unit. Poole is still improving, as is Teske. With the two of them and Robinson, we have a solid bench.
As far as our opponents go, Maryland and Minnesota are now crippled with roster losses. Northwestern has reverted to form. And I really don't see a loss to Iowa or PSU. The hardest game left besides Purdue would be OSU, but I think they will come back to earth, and beyond Bates-Diop, I don't think they have the depth to stay with Michigan. Plus, Michigan is now devising a better plan to deal with the switching.
I also see Michigan winning at least a couple games in the Big 10 Tournament. And if they continue this way, I see a much higher seed for the NCAA tourney, maybe a 4 - 5 seed.
Anyway, what's your take?
January 13th, 2018 at 11:03 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 11:10 PM ^
January 13th, 2018 at 11:56 PM ^
There's no way things just go chalk. This is sports, and it's college basketball. The team looks really good now, but they'll go through a slump at some point and look terrible. They'll probably lose a couple of games nobody would expect. A 3-loss record in conference wins or ties for the conference title in 7 out of the last 9 seasons. I realize that the conference is down this year, but that would be a really remarkable record, and Michigan would need to be near-perfect to achieve it down the stretch.
To see an example of this, just look at Michigan State this week, which overrated or otherwise isn't playing well given its two embarrassing losses and an OT game at home against Rutgers. They're not going to stay this bad. Michigan will probably go through at least a stretch like this and drop some stupid weekday road game where nothing goes right.
Nonetheless, a 4 or 5 loss conference record sounds pretty good to me, and I expect we'll make waves in the conference tourney. If this team is hitting its stride, and the ratings are starting to catch up to that, a 4-6 seed seems reasonable, and that kind of seed hopefully means Michigan is positioned to launch into the second weekend of the tourney and do some damage.
January 14th, 2018 at 12:55 AM ^