Putting Peppers' stats into perspective: a comparison with Tyrann Mathieu
People have posed the question of what exactly Peppers would have to do stats-wise to be seriously considered in the Heisman race. I figured I would put his numbers up against the Honey Badger, a player who was comparable in terms of versatility on the defensive side and dynamic returning abilities. Mathieu gained considerable Heisman hype after an incredible year for a true freshman, and followed it up with an even better sophomore season, earning 34 first place votes for Heisman en route to a 5th place finish in the race.
Mathieu season stats:
Defense- 59 solo tackles, 17 assisted, 7.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 9 PBU, 2 INT, 6 FF, 5 FR, 2 FR TD.
Offense- No rushes or receptions.
Punt returns- 27 returns for 421 yards (avg. 15.6) with 2 TD.
Kick off returns- None.
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Peppers season stats through 3 games:
Defense- 20 solo tackles, 8 assisted, 9.5 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 0 PBU, 0 INT, 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 DEF TD.
Offense- 2 rushes for 24 yards. 0 receptions.
Punt returns- 8 returns for 173 yards (avg. 21.6) with 1 TD.
Kick off returns- 2 returns for 81 yards (avg. 40.5) with 0 TD.
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Some things that stands out is that Peppers is living in the backfield in his role as a hybrid LB, and he could finish with an ungodly amount of TFLs and sacks. But, in order to get into the Heisman race, he will need to make some special plays. The Honey Badger made his fame punching the ball out and getting in position to make big plays on defense. Peppers will need to get 1-2 defensive touchdowns in order to be considered. The lack of any INT is still a glaring hole in his collegiate resume, especially given that he dropped a sure pick 6 last year.
Where Peppers can make his move is on offense. He was deployed for the first time yesterday, and picked up yards with ease. If he gets 200 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards with 3 TD-- a slight improvement from last year--that would be a big boost to his resume. For comparison, Woodson had 231 receiving yards and 2 TD to go with 15 rushing yards and 1 TD.
Finally, on the kicking game, Peppers is off to an otherworldly start. If he can finish the year with Mathieu's avg return numbers, he will likely have popped off another punt return TD and be a freak of nature. If he can take a kick off return to the house, well then, we might have a real race on our hands.
Overall, this is just for fun and I'm going to enjoy watching Peppers regardless of how it all plays out, but I figured I'd add some perspective to give people a sense of what he needs to do to get into the discussion.
September 20th, 2016 at 9:34 AM ^
I don't think that the Honey Badger and Peppers are the same player, but I do feel like they're asked to do some of the same things. Especially when you're talking about the attitude, swagger, and game changeability. Peppers' tackles and TFL numbers are great and will continue to grow, but I agree with many that he's going to have to start forcing turnovers to get more recognition. The national media is beginning to notice (Feldman put him on his Heisman watch list), but he's going to have to keep putting up big numbers and helping Michigan win to do it. If he stays healthy, I think that he will be a finalist.
It's too early to say whether Peppers can win it. Lamar Jackson's numbers at this point have outdone most Heisman winners at this point in the season. We'll see if he can keep it up.
September 20th, 2016 at 10:06 AM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 10:25 AM ^
Interesting to see that comparison. Peppers's numbers are ungodly.
Ultimately, we need to make the playoffs, and probably beat our 3 rivals as well. But for a defensive player to make the top 5, I can't see it happening without playoffs.
September 20th, 2016 at 10:31 AM ^
After receiving zero votes through last week, Peppers is now in 6th place on ESPN's Heisman Watch.
September 20th, 2016 at 10:52 PM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 11:50 AM ^
Peppers has to make more game changing plays. Having 20 + TFL, even leading the nation in that stat won't be enough.
He needs something like 5 INTs, 22 TFL, 8 sacks, 4 FF, 5 FR.... 4 return TD's (any kind)... 5 offensive TD's.
The total yards won't matter because they won't compare with anyone. It's going to be really really hard for him to make it to NY.
September 20th, 2016 at 12:10 PM ^
Peppers is Mathieu mixed with Polomalu. Yeah, I said it.
September 20th, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^
I agree with this. I think his game is pretty similar to Troy but he hasn't shown the same fell for underneath zone coverage yet.
I don't think there is a perfect comp as this point. He hasn't shown the coverage skills of Woodson yet, hasn't shown the ability to attack the ball like Mathieu.
Peppers is a great player but I don't think at this point he has produced like those three did in college. He still can and still has the chance to be better than those three but not just yet.
September 20th, 2016 at 6:06 PM ^
Peppers should be our starting running back. I think its awesome that we have such an explosive player that is able to set the edge on defense and all but I think our offense would be positively unstoppable with him full time in the backfield. Anybody agree?
September 20th, 2016 at 6:33 PM ^
this year. Last year, he was a nice player and piece of the defense, but now he totally sets the tone for the entire defense. If he hadn't successfully transitioned to his new role, I would hesitantly say that his potential is being wasted by being a non-stud defensive player. But now, I don't think there is anyone who could fill his role if he moved away. He has blossomed into the stud player on defense we hoped he would be.
September 20th, 2016 at 6:51 PM ^
I know Harbaugh said he's impressed by the amount of snaps he can play, but thats pretty rediculous. Starting OLB/S/NCB/CB, PR, KR, AND starting RB? Thats a rediculous number of snaps for anyone, even apparent demigods like Peppers.
September 20th, 2016 at 7:43 PM ^
Thatd be too much as to why I would put him just at RB but thats a bit selfish of me considering he would have a longer career play SS in the NFL than running back.
September 20th, 2016 at 10:50 PM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 6:18 PM ^
September 20th, 2016 at 6:29 PM ^