2015 Penn State Football Preview
Disclaimer: My previews of Big 10 teams are based on viewing of 2014 games of said teams plus extensive reading of local and national previews of that team. I might be wrong in my assessment any one team or any specific unit of that team. But that's clearly doubtful. (!!) No, on a serious note I enjoy people who comment who live locally to these teams or is an opposing fan - helps us get a better perspective so if you are one feel free to add to the discussion.
I also write this with the assumption Jake Rudock is the starting QB as the matrix of possibilities is too great trying to predict things with Shane Morris as a start.
TL;DR
Penn State 2014 reminded me a lot of Michigan 2013. A QB with a lot of potential who was hit or miss from week to week (and suffering from PTSD) behind a horrid OL and a non impressive running game, married to a quality defense. I've been struck how dismissive the general UM fanbase is about 2015 Penn State in these "2015 prediction" threads that pop up weekly. There are a lot of "cumong man we beat them in 2014 with Hoke - 2015 is going to be a UM win!! Don't be a troll!! Harbaugh!!!"
You'd think UM was a powerhouse and PSU was Rutgers (who UM lost to last year as well). Yes Harbaugh... but PSU brings a NFL potential 1st round pick in at QB, an OL that will probably show the same improvement UM's did between 2013 and 2014, return a lot of players from the best Big 10 defense in 2014, and has probably the most underrated coordinator in the conference if not the country on defense. A lot of people seem to be dismissing any improvement out of Hackenberg and think he will be 2014 Devin Gardner - I disagree. It also doesn't mean PSU is a powerhouse but right now PSU and UM are essentially peers in terms of football level. I'd place this along with @Utah as the 3rd toughest game on the slate. It also happens to be in one of the toughest venues in CFB to play a game - ask OSU last year.
To that end Vegas has set the win total for PSU at 7.5. Identical to UM's. Again these are programs at a very similar spot with not dissimilar talent. And the game will be in Happy Valley - so I am not sure where this immense confidence about this game comes from, from many in the fanbase.
As for those odds I'd be taking the over all day as PSU has the potential to come out 6-0 to begin the year: Temple, Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State, Army, and Indiana. All PSU would need to do is win 2 games the rest of the year to best that 7.5 win total. And of the remaining 7 games, foes include Illinois and a not so good Maryland. Northwestern will be on the road but is no great shakes. UM is at home and the 2 teams are very similar. So even if you give losses vs MSU and OSU (both on the road so very likely) PSU has an excellent chance for 9 wins IMO.
PSU returns ~15 starters (~8 offense, ~7 defense) on a squad that was not far away from 10 wins last year. Assuming the PSU OL makes the same improvement UM's did btw 2013-2014, and Hackenberg plays anything like a NFL 1st round draft pick nearly everyone has him pegged to be, combined with another top 20ish type defense and PSU could have a very promising year.
Last year
Penn State combined what was IMO the best defense in the conference (FEI #9, S&P+ #13) with a 2013 UM like offense (FEI #101, S&P+ #82). The results were predictable: 7-6.
(If you use NCAA's stats for defense - which I don't prefer as they don't adjust for SOS and all Big 10 defenses get inflated due to some horrid offenses in the conference - PSU looked even better: #2 in total defense, # 3 in rushing defense, #7 scoring defense)
The Nittany Lions had one of the most well-rounded Ds in the country -- third in Passing Downs S&P+, fourth in Rushing S&P+, ninth in Standard Downs S&P+, 10th in Passing S&P+
The offensive line was horrific - ranked #111 (out of 128) in Football Outsiders's rankings.
Only seven teams allowed more frequent sacks on passing downs. Only three teams allowed more run stuffs in the backfield. Only four teams created fewer downfield opportunities for their backs.
PSU entered with only two experienced starters (Donovan Smith, Miles Dieffenbach), and one got hurt. Redshirt freshmen Andrew Nelson and Brendan Mahon combined to start 22 times. Converted defensive tackle Brian Gaia started 12.
Four of the 7 wins came out of conference with only the win over UCF in Dublin, Ireland being competitive. PSU is infamous for playing patsy city in non conf. Despite a defense that kept them in every game except vs MSU... and strangely Northwestern, PSU could only manage 2 conference wins (Rutgers/Indiana). But 3 of their 4 other losses were by a combined 8 pts and then they lost by 7 in OT to OSU in the 4th game. (If memory serves there was a phantom PI in that game vs PSU that helped OSU escape with a win) So ANY production out of their offense and PSU 2014 could have been quite a good year actually, with double digit wins very viable. Strangely they had a reversal of form in the bowl game vs Boston College where scary Hackenberg showed up (34/50 68% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, 371 yards, 4 TD 0 INT), and the defense fell apart.
A defense led by Anthont Zettel and Mike Hull was generally excellent despite the inept offense, and the kicking game was solid with Sam Ficken 24/29 in FGs incl 8/9 from 40-49 yards out. Punting was meh.
This year
PSU returns the bulk of its team, losing only 7 starters. The skill position players on offense could be anywhere from good to great. The question is on the OL. The defense lost some talent but their DC has a very good track record so I'd expect internal development to fix any holes, and a stodgy defense that gave us less than 19 pts per game in 2014 to remain an issue for opponents. The schedule sets up for a big start which will boost confidence and PSU might be favored in every game but 2 on their schedule.
With a weak non-conference slate (which does include a landmine trip to Temple in Week 1), PSU is scheduled to play three top-50 teams.
The 2 crossover games are Illinoi and Northwestern - not exactly muderer's row. PSU is the obvious candidate to challenge UM for "3rd slot" in the Big 10 East and has fewer questions . They also have a coaching staff going into their 2nd year, rather than their 1st.
On defense the production of Mike Hull must be replaced and PSU needs to break in a new placekicker.
As always, Bill Connelly's team previews are a must read if you are a fan of the game.
Penn State Offense
I won't repeat myself yet again about Hack and that OL. You get the point. Hack had a 58.9% completion rate, with 3K yards, and solid 7.5 yard per attempt season as a freshman when he was only sacked 21 times. His TD to INT ratio was 2:1. All those #s fell his sophomore year as he was sacked 44 times and if you watched more than 1-2 PSU games you saw a man running for his life on almost every dropback. Hack also lost coach O'Brien which certainly was not a positive. I expect the 2015 PSU OL to be 2014 UMlike and Hack to have more time and be in the top 3 in Big 10 QBs and be a scary foe.
Hackenberg returns his top 2 weapons at WR in RS SO DeaSean Hamilton (82 catches, 899 yards, 11.0 ave), and SR Geno Lewis (55 catches, 751 yards, 13.7 ave). Lewis' stats were in the Funchess range so you can see this is a dynamic duo. PSU also played two other freshmen extensively last year - including Chris Godwin who exploded for 140 yards in the bowl game - so this unit will benefit from that trial by fire.
Leading rusher SR Akeel Lynch returns. He was able to average 4.6 yards per carry behind an awful line so any assumed improvement by that OL is only going to benefit him as will defenses needing to play their secondary deep to account for Hackenberg. PSU also brought in some very highly touted RBs in last year's class and this is 1 position on offense true freshman can have an impact right away. Saquon Barkley was the 247 compositive 123rd best player (#14 RB) and Andre Robinson was #258 (#19 RB). There are also some redshirt freshmen in the mix so bodies won't be an issue here.
PSU did lose very good TE Jesse James (38 catches, 396 yards. 10.4 ave) to the NFL but overall PSU does not lack skill position skill or experience. It's a lot better than UM's in terms of being proven and prolific. The issue is that OL. If it can just be mediocre this offense could skyrocket vs its 2014 ranks.PS
PSU returns 6 linemen with starting experience. Only 1 is a senior. Offensive lineman generally get better with age.... so I expect improvement. The question is will it be modest or significant. PSU also brought in a 4 star JUCO prospect they expect to start (must be nice). With the young talent at the edges of this offense even marginal improvement from the OL could have PSU nearing double digit wins.
Penn State Defense
When I did my analysis of Michigan coaching candidates post November, I took a look at 2013's two hot names in a theoretical world where Hoke was fired post 2013 - Strong and Franklin. As I broke down Franklin I was not super impressed - he was an offensive minded coach whose offenses were not great. Obviously he has charisma and can recruit (sounds familiar) but thus far in his HC career he has relied on a man named Bob Shoop. Shoop built the Vanderbilt defenses that allowed the team to rise from afterthought in the Franklin era and in his first year at PSU he had the team playing at a near elite level despite a horrific offense. So there were no excuses there like we heard for Mattison here - you CAN have a great defense even if your offense is a joke (Florida and Texas were similarly able to perform on defense despite galling offenses). Shoop was in play for the LSU job when Chavis left for A&M but PSU locked him down for 3 years at a million per so expect excellent PSU defenses in the near future. At only 48 years old I expect Shoop to get a head coach offer sooner rather than later.
The starting tackles of PSU might be the best tandem in the nation with Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson. This was the 3rd best defense against the run - a major problem for UM which only managed 64 yards vs PSU last year. Zettel was also awesome as a penetrator with 17 TFL and 8 sacks - this is a man's man. Did I mention he had 3 INTs? UM didnt have a DB with 3 INTs last year. Despite being tiny for his position (280ish) Zettel is widely projected as a 2nd/3rd round talent at a position where it is rare to be picked in the 1st.
Much like UM, PSU has questions at DE with last year's starters (Deion Barnes and C.J. Olaniyan) graduating, and another question at MLB where all everything Mike Hull (140 !!! tackles) graduated. Junior Nyeem Wartman (a 2 year starter at OLB) slid over to that position in spring ball. And to be fair the DEs had all of 9 sacks combined... again Zettel had 8 alone. Rush defense on the edges of the line is probably the area to see if PSU can maintain 2014 levels.
The secondary returns 3 starters and most publications are very high on quite a few of these players - especially Marcus Allen who started 7 games as a true freshman last year and "played as well as any safety in college football the second half of the year." - Bob Shoop. John Lucas - a 2 year starter at corner - is switching to safety. One corner is manned by senior Trevor Williams with the other corner up for grabs.
Penn State returns four of its top six linemen, three of four linebackers, and three of four defensive backs. Shoop didn't play a large rotation, but quite a few difference-makers within that rotation return, and the personality won't change much.
Matchups
(take these matchups with more of a grain of salt than usual because once you get past the month of September teams grow and evolve - well at least well coached teams.)
UM rush off v PSU rush def - Adv: PSU. PSU returns two sterling DTs off the 3rd best rush defense in the nation last year. Against an offense where running the ball not using the QB (or Drake Johnson) has been an adventure for a few years. UM has a lot to prove here.
UM pass off v PSU pass def - Adv: Even. I am probably being kind with my even here for UM. While PSU doesn't bring a ton of pass rush outside they do have penetrating DTs and that combined with what should be a very good secondary could pose a lot of issues if secondary receiving threats have not emerged for UM by November. I am going with the thesis that one WR emerges by then to offset Darboh and Butt. (and even Darboh is no sure thing - we are all just projecting him to see a #1 WR when he has not yet been one) Rudock will need to have a very good game in a road environment as UM's rush offense will be very challenged. UM's OL will need to be top notch in pass protect as well, especially the center and guards.
PSU rush off v UM rush def - Adv: UM. PSU has a good RB but just as PSU stuffed UM's running attack so did UM to PSU's. PSU's OL and UM's DEs are the big question marks as these 2 units face off.
PSU pass off v UM pass def - Adv: PSU. Potential NFL 1st round QB with pair of top end WRs against a back 7 that has a lot of questions to answer in the passing game. UM's secondary depth at the corners will concern me until I see anyone not named Lewis or Lyons show it on the field in real games. I am hoping it's Watson but I expect a lot of nickel packages in this game with the vertical threat PSU poses.
Overall
I like PSU more than the experts and most board members in 2015, due to (1) the schedule, (2) belief that OLs improve with age (even if just to "mediocre" level), (3) my study of Bob Shoop and belief he is severely underrated nationally and (4) the advantage of having a 3rd year starting QB of this pedigree. Yes we had a 3rd year starter ourselves last year (sort of) but we were the exception to the rule where having one was a boon. (Ironically we have another one this year assuming Rudock wins the job)
More specific to PSU in relation to UM this game is very late in the season and as we know with football, injuries by that point in the year can change the complexion of this game quite a bit. So projecting is difficult On paper thru September, I give PSU the edge as their main question marks are placekicker, OL, and DE. They have an established back - we do not. They have a top end WR and a great secondary WR, we do not. While we have a solid QB in Rudock the ceiling for Hackenberg is obviously huge and this is the 2nd year in the system - Rudock starts from scratch. Their defense was simply better than ours last year and while they lost Hull we lost Ryan and Clark which would be equivalents to their Hull. Both teams have what should be excellent DTs but theirs are established and ours are still a bit of potential. Both should have solid DBs with a young star - their young star started 7 games last year, ours barely played. While Harbaugh >>>> Franklin IMO, PSU has the advantage at defensive coordinator as we have a newbie there. Rudock needs a huge game here as does the UM pass defense. I doubt UM will get many yards on the ground vs PSU's front.
PSU was a few plays away last year from a 9-10 win season. UM was a few plays away from a 7 win season. We have more room to make up and less NFL talent among upperclassmen...and it's in Happy Valley. PSU also has a bye week to prepare (not that it mattered for UM in the Hoke era but PSU's staff should use it better) while UM will be in Indiana. I am calling this a coin flip but in reality home field advantage alone gives PSU the edge and I'd expect PSU to be favored by 5ish if everyone is healthy. Winning this type of game for UM would be a boon for the 2015 season and could be the difference between 7-8 wins and 9-10.
Thanks for that comment. The BYU people said something similar so that makes me feel I am in the right area directionally. I try to write these as a neutral rather than as a UM fan which gets me pushback on this board of course. And why I wont write them for OSU and MSU :) too much emotion about it from the board.
I was hoping Harbaugh would steal Shoop from you guys when he was being considered for the job if he could not bring Vic Fangio from the NFL. Will be interesting to see how Durkin works out long term.
Should be an interesting game and I think people might have a different perception of the game if PSU does indeed start 6-0, as if that happens Hack should be having a great year.
"Winning this type of game for UM would be a boon for the 2015 season and could be the difference between 7-8 wins and 9-10."
How is this one game potentially worth two wins? (7 going to 9 or 8 going to 10?) Serious question, because it's our second to last game. If we beat PSU, are you suggesting that gives us positive momentum whereby we beat the Buckeyes?
It's not this one game is worth two. It is the cluster of similar opponents that will swing UM's seasons from the 7-8 area to 9-10 area. In my cluster I have @PSU, @Minn, BYU, and @Utah. Those are the games I have ranked as #3 toughest to #6 toughest (not in that order).
So if you go 3-1 in that cluster of games vs 1-3 your win total takes that swing and perception of your season can change significantly. 3-1 thru that group you are probably talking 10 wins as viable unless they drop a game to a quite pedestrian team elsewhere. 1-3 and probably 8 wins is the ceiling.
For me the total win doesnt matter much this year - I'd rather see the team go 1-3 to begin the year and knock off either MSU and OSU to finish the season 7-6 then start 4-0 and finish 7-6 in Rich Rod fashion. I know its not an either or but for 2015 I'd rather see UM rise up and beat a very strong team and then lose to an also ran then get smashed by the top teams and only beat "who they should". And be better in mid Nov than late Sept. Something that has been missing here for a decade.
I am a big proponent of a big hire having much more impact on W/L in year 2 than 1 - see Saban, Stoops, etc. Year 1 is about getting your shit in order, your culture changed, and developing guys who are going to be the bad asses of year 2.
August 6th, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^
I can't imagine that we lose to both OSU and MSU at home under Harbaugh. The realist in me looks at the talent on the roster of OSU, and unless they have serious injuries or lose guys for violations it's hard to see us winning that game. Although MSU also appears to be the favorite on paper I think UM wins this game. The gap between MSU and UM is not big enough to overcome UM at home under Harbaugh assuming we have somewhat decent QB and RB productivity and don't turn the ball over. I expect to have those things sorted out by mid-season. I also expect them to make this a night game, which should help.
The hard part about projecting an upswing in year 2, 3, 4 etc. is that our roster is built to win now. We don't lose much next year that isn't replacable. Wilson should be replacable with either Hill or Kinnel. Ross, Bolden/Morgan are replacable with Gedeon and McCray. Ojemudia is replacable with Marshall. We only lose Glasgow and Ruddock next year offensively. There are plenty of young(er) offensive players that you'd expect to jump in and contribute in a few years like Gentry, Harris, Cole, Bunting, Dawson, Kugler, and LTT. The real concerns would be if Peppers and Lewis left early. Then, we lose a ton on defense in year 3 of Harbaugh. Not having Wormely, Charlton, Glasgow, Henry, Gedeon, McCray, Lewis, and likely Peppers is gonna hurt. I'm really worried about our defense in Harbaugh's 3rd year unless a lot of these recruits are better than their rankings. I don't see a ton of playmakers.
Well I am not going to say it in every thread but I strongly disagree with the assertion MSU and UM are not far apart in talent.
MSU had 2 potential 1st round picks/2nd round picks come back for their 5th year in Calhoun and Cook. They had another potential 1st round pick in Conklin at LT. They have 3 potential 1st round picks (borderline 2nds) - we might have a 5th or 6th rounder type in the Boldens and Lyons. They have one of the best centers in the country.
Their front 7 on defense features 5 fifth year seniors - and a Bullough and a Malik McDowell. They way Lawrence Thomas was playing the last third of the year I expect him now to be drafted in the 3rd/4th rounds - he finally began putting it together.
They have 21 fifth year seniors on the roster; we have 3 - 2 of them being transfers (Rudock, Lyons). They have a TE as good as Butt. They dont have an all world WR corps but 3-4 guys with experience and Kings has more YAC ability than anyone on our team at this point. Much more proven production there. Montae Nicholson played great for a true freshman at S.
They are a very talented team and a very experienced team. Ironically there one big question is CB but thats due to losing 1st round draft picks back to back yrs. RB is also a question but their OL is pretty loaded so as we know as goes the OL goes the running game.
I'm sorry but there is a significant talent difference especially in the upperclassmen of the 2 teams. They have an established coaching core and they are very good evaluators and developers of talent. They are not breaking in coaches at every spot like we are.
Next year they lose those 21 fifth year seniors and I'll agree by then the talent gulf won't be that big. But I'll disagree this year.
That doesnt mean UM cannot or will not beat MSU. Quite a few times a far superior UM team waltzed into EL and a pesky undermanned MSU team gave them a rough time or outright beat them. In 2015 we are that pesky team and MSU is the far more talented squad.
We lost to them the past two years pretty soundly, however both games were played @ MSU. In 2014 we turned the ball over 3 times, one of which was a pick-6. No real excuse for 2013 as we were dominated by their defense and couldn't do anything, again it was on the road. We narrowly beat them at home in 2012. Going back much further is futile. I think all 3 of those MSU teams were better than 2015 and I think UMs 2015 is better than all those previous UM teams. I'm certain it will be a closeer game, it's just a matter of can we do enough to win.
Maybe Cook is as good as the scouts think. I agree Conklin is phenomenal as a LT. Maybe I want to believe that recruiting stars mean something and that the only thing our upperclassman 4-star recruits need is a swift kick in the a*s and Harbaugh, Drevno, and Drukin are just the guys to do that. This is the first year we are playing mostly 3rd, 4th, and 5th year players. Our entire o-line is back. The only underclassman that are projected starters is Mason Cole who was a freshman all american and Peppers who is well...Peppers. Everyone else is an upperclassman with experience. When was the last time you could say that?
I feel like Lewis is a star this year, Peppers is a real difference maker, the rest of the defense is solid as a rock. I think the d-line takes a big step forward and that Wormley, Henry, Mone, and Charlton will be a handful. I think we have a lot of good LBs even though I think the most talented ones are Gedeon and McCray, hopefully they actually play this year. I think playing at home will make a huge difference especially at night. I do agree that our offensive skill positions are a huge question mark. We really need the QB to not turn the ball over and some WRs to step up. IMO this game all comes down to how far our o-line has progressed. Can they protect the QB and create holes to run through? It's as simple as that. I think the answer is yes.
August 6th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
The other would be that if you've played a lot of challenging games that it toughens your team up and makes them better equipped to handle stressful situations and close games, especially if you have won your fair share of them.
August 6th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
I've already got tickets to this game and I've had to sit through the last two losses to PSU in Happy Valley with my godforsaken PSU friend fans and I vowed they would win this year!
Your assessment looks pretty good. For a while now I've basically said these two teams are pretty equal...better than average teams, but nothing special. Both teams may be a little better than that this year. But, in recent years it's been as simple as the home team wins, so in general I'd give PSU the advantage on that alone unless UM is waaay better, and they obviously aren't.
I was just talking with my friends about how rediculously easy of a non-conference schedule PSU has this year. They only play OSU, MSU, and UM so my guess is they are favored in 10 of their games (minus OSU and MSU). Hopefully they finally knock off MSU. But, they should have a pretty good season.
I guess my hope is that for once with Harbaugh at the helm the team will develop some toughness and win difficult games on the road. It is in November so they will had a whole year to have the Harbaugh effect take place. I am hoping despite their quality DTs by that time the offensive line gets going and they have just enough playmakers to put some points on the board and limit turnovers and maybe, dare I say, a special teams TD (Peppers I'm talking to you!). And further, I'm hoping UMs DL causes enough havoc up front and shuts down their run game that PSU becomes one dimensional and turns the ball over a few times. I know all that is wishful thinking, but they have to eventually win there so I'll go out on a limb and pick UM for the win with no real data to back that up other than potential, Harbaugh, the DL, and Peppers.
FWIW, I saw a comment about that as I was scrolling down.
What I wanted to clarify is it wasn't a phantom PI call but a phantom INT. The ball skipped into Bell's hands, the refs called it an INT. The booth had technical difficulties and could only get one view that wasn't clear. The stadium board did show multiple views, but they didn't use that.
We also should have been dinged for a delay of game on a long FG that might have moved it out of FG range. We got a couple extra seconds.
Finally they got a leaping call in on our extra point in OT which let us start at the 10 in the second OT.
I think they got a couple benficial judgment call penalties, for example on roughing on their last drive that allowed them to tie the game. But those I think are up for debate. The phantom INT and the extra time (both of which were in the first half) were clearly calls/noncalls that went in our favor.
I ran into this podcast last night,
http://theradioblast.com/2015/08/big-ten-football-preview/
Revsine's opinion on Hackenberg, that his "body language" from 2014 was poor, was interesting to note. Most traditional media love the PSU QB and this is the first negative impression I can remember being shared. Now, to be fair, there were plenty of reasons for Hack to act like a moody teen. The loss of his HC/QB-whisperer being more than enough to get things off to a less than Happy (Valley) start. The beating he took in the pocket was probably more than enough to cement the teenage "how many more years until I can start getting paid for this sh*t" attitude for the rest of 2014. For me though, I was kind of surprised that Revsine would be so honest in his opinion.
Whether there's any legitimacy to his observation, you gotta respect a talking-head, who needs to maintain relationships, both with the school and the player in question, but still calls it like he sees it. Was that a moment of weakness? Perhaps, I doubt that guys like Revsine made their way to the top by burning too many bridges. Still, I though it was an interesting and unique perspective.
So as someone not too impressed with PSU, I'll try to explain my reasoning.
I'll start by saying the night game at PSU is a major swing game in my opinion, one that I could definitely see either team winning. If you told me PSU was favored in that game and had a better chance of winning than Michigan, I would have no problem with that.
That being said, I personally like Michigan's chances for a few reasons, and think we have a very good chance of winning.
I'll start with the obvious in saying that we were awful last year and still beat them. I understand that beating a team one year obviously does not guarantee beating them the next, and there's a lot of room for PSU to improve. But at the same time, we have a ton of room to improve as well, and since this game is so late in the year, any improvements made will be noticable by this game. And between Harbaugh and Franklin, I have more faith in Harbaugh and co to improve their players during the season than Franklin's staff.
You mentioned how good PSU's defense was last year, which is true. But even with how good their defense was last year and how bad our offense was, we still beat them. And for any team, even elite defensive teams year in and year out like Alabama and MSU, staying in the top 10 is hard. So with PSU losing 4 starters including Hull, it's going to be hard for them to have another top 10 year. They could definitely be top 20, top 25, but that would still be a step back from last year. Combine that with the step up our offense should take this year, and to me it seems like we should be more succesful this year than last year against them offensively.
You also seem to be very high on them offensively and are giving them the benefit of the doubt in a lot of spots. If everything works out perfectly for them, then yes they will have as good an offense and season as you're saying they will. But I would be shocked if everything does work out as well you're saying.
Let's start with Akeel Lynch. You call him an established back, and averaging 4.6 YPC with that OL is a little impressive. But Lynch only had 2 games all season where he had dobule digit carries and averaged even 4.5 YPC. He had 130 yards vs Temple (7.2 YPC against the S&P 57th ranked run defense) and 137 yards against Illinois (4.9 YPC against the S&P 80th ranked run defense). So his only two real good games came against meh to bad run defenses, which should be expected. 307 of his 678 rushing yards, 45% of his yards, came from two games. Even beyond that 126 of his remaining yards came against UMass and Akron, 2 awful defenses again.
So 64% of his rusing from the seaosn came against 4 awful defenses. 6 of the last 8 teams PSU played were Maryland, Michigan, OSU, Indiana, MSU and BC (5 times he had double digit carries). Against those 6 listed teams, Lynch had 83 carries for 278 yards, or an average of 3.3 YPC, which is awful. Those are also the only defenses Lynch played all year with a pulse. The only one of those games that Lynch even averaged over 4 YPC was the bowl game against Boston College, where he had 75 yards on 17 carries, but 35 came on one run. So on his other 16 runs, he was averaging 2.5 YPC.
And all of this is ignoring the fact that he no longer has Bill Belton, PSU's only other established RB from last year, since Belton graduated. So I get that PSU had an awful OL, but if Lynch is an established RB, then between one of Johnson, Green, Smith (who all averaged more YPC than Lynch last year) and Isaac we have an established back.
Next lets go to the passing game and specifically Hackenberg. I know that Hackenberg has a ton of talent receiveing wise and had a solid true freshman season. But he was god awful last year. Even with all the talent he had in his receiving corps, more than Devin Gardner ever had, he was awful. And once again, I know there's the OL caveat, but he was worse last year than Gardner was in 2013 with our OL. Hell, Gardner was better than him last year straight up. Last year Hackenberg had a worse YPA and QBR than Gardner ever had, and threw just as many picks as Gardner ever did in his worst season.
And if you're expecting a marginally better OL to fix all of that, I'd bet that doesn't happen. There were a lot of problems in his game that go well beyond the play of the OL. You said you like PSU because they have a "3rd year starting QB of this pedigree", but outside of hype from recruiting and NFL mock drafts, Hackenberg's pedigree is actually really bad. Jake Ruddock is a significantly more proven and better option than Hackenberg at this point. Even if he is learning a new playbook, for a kid as smart as Ruddock it shouldn't be an issue. He's not drastically changing systems and grad transfer QBs have worked well in the past (Russel Wilson.) Also, people discount how much of Hackenberg's freshman success can be attributed to O'Brien, something that he can't get back this year.
The last thing I wanna talk about is their OL. Will they improve this year? Probably, it's hard to be worse than they were last year. But I think comparing them to Michigan's OL is iffy because they don't have the same potential as Michigan's OL. Michigan's starting OL this past year was Glasgow and Miller, guys who had actually proven to be pretty solid, 3 top 100ish composite recruits in Kalis, Cole and Magnuson, and then a 3 star type guy in Braden.
PSU's OL however is made up of a mid 4 star JUCO transfer who is a complete question mark, a converted DL, 2 redshirt sophomore guards who had mid 3 star to low 4 star recruiting profiles, and a solid 5th year center. That does not look like a promising OL group, and they played to those expectations last year. Part of the optimism around Michigan's OL when it's been struggling is that the players struggling had a ton of potential, they just weren't playing up to it. While this could be the case with PSU, it doesn't seem likely. Their OL is more of a throw together whatever works and hope for the best situation. So while there is room for improvement, I don't think comparing it to Michigan is so accurate in that case.
If you do want compare 2014 PSU OL to 2013 Michigan OL, why not just compare the two school's seasons as a whole. 2014 PSU was very similar to 2013 Michigan. Good defense with a bad offense and an awful OL leading to a middling season where they lost to who they were supposed to and beat who they should. Both teams had a highly regarded QB who struggled their second year after a very positive first year starting. And look what happened to Michigan last year, even after the OL improved.
Could PSU be a 10 win team? Sure. But to me this team seems a lot like our team this past year. They're not going to be as bad, especially off the field, and probably be around 8-4 or so. But I am just as high on them as everyone else. For them to be a 10 win team, everything has to go exactly their way in terms of the OL improving, Hackenberg improving, and the defense staying elite. And I just think it's way too hard for all three of those things to happen.
You make some good points. I like your points regarding the defense and o-line. However, I have a hard time believing Hack won't be really good this year unless his offensive line can't do anything. He's a highly ranked recruit, he has obvious talent, he has good recievers and tight ends. He passes the eye test, which I put more faith into than statistics.
Regarding predicting the success of PSU next season, one thing you didn't mention is their schedule is a cake walk. They play UM, MSU, and OSU, and that's it. Their next most difficult games are Northwestern, Maryland, and Rutgers. Their non-conference is Temple, Army, San Diego St., and Buffalo. That's four easy wins right off the bat. I doubt they lose to NW after having their worst home loss to them last year. Plus, NW is not very good. They won't beat OSU in Columbus and I doubt they beat MSU in E. Lansing the week after they play UM. So, you're right that UM is a swing game. If they beat UM, which we can all agree is pretty much a toss up, then yes they are probably a 10-win team. If they lose they are probably a 9-win team. I'm sure they could slip up against Indiana, Maryland, or Illinois (who they seem to struggle with for some reason), but those would be surprise upsets. But, they are a 9/10 win team in my mind based mostly on the fact that they play a cupcake schedule.
I honestly didn't know their schedule. After looking at that, you're right, they very much might be a 10 win team. I was trying to look at PSU more in a comparison to Michigan light than in a vacuum. Personally I have no problem with PSU, so beyond us hopefully beating them, I don't really care how their season goes so I haven't looked at them in that sense.
As for Hack, I guess this is just an agree to disagree type scenario. A lot of his problems did come from the OL, true. And he does pass the eye test in the sense that he can make all the throws in the world. But a lot of it was his fault as well.
He was sacked 44 times last year. Some of that was the OL, but then some of it was also him just holding onto the ball way too long. A sack like this He also suffered from Devin Gardner syndrome where he got sacked so much, he started panicking and making mistakes whenever there wa sthe slightest bit of pressure. As of now I don't have a ton of faith in their OL, so I don't see that improving much.
Also, he just wasn't a good QB at times last year. According to this article, he got the lowest grade from Pro Footbal Focus out of all FBS QB's last year. He was really bad. A couple quotes from this PennLive article describe it:
"Hackenberg faced six non-bowl teams in 2014 and finished those games with a 52.8 completion percentage for 1,154 yards, four touchdowns and eight interceptions."
And
Hackenberg played against five teams with defenses ranking 93rd or worse in 2014 and completed just 48.7 percent of his passes in those contests for 926 yards, two scores and four picks.
He had a 3 game stretch against UMass, Rutgers and Northwestern where he threw 0 TD's and 2 picks.
Then he also has plays like this one.
IDK, maybe I'm wrong and he ends up being a first round pick like everyone says. But as of right not, with what Penn State has at their disposal, I'm not seeing it. He honestly seems a lot like Devin Gardner to me.
2013 --- he was a true freshman, and he was legit. He struggled in some games like at Ohio State, missed some open receivers early on, threw a pick in the end zone on our first drive, and things spiraled downward. But that was pretty understandable: first true road game, in the Horseshoe, still only 18 years old. He finished the season with a powerhouse game at Wisconsin: PSU was a 24-point underdog but he literally carved the Badgers up all day long. O'Brien's offense was a "downfield-type offense" and it really fit Hackenberg's skills well.
2014 --- New offense, one where James Franklin was insistent on rolling the QB out more and running (literally) 15 wide receiver screens a game. Totally different from the more sophisticated offense O'Brien ran. Hackenberg had horrible body language from the 2nd game of the season onwards (Akron. In that game where he was caught on the sideline yelling at his OC on the phone "I don't know what the **** is going on out there!" Despite it all though, as in 2013, his best game of the year was the finale. That was a good, underrated BC team in the Bowl Game and he threw for ~375 yards and led a 14-point 4th quarter comeback to get the win.
A fairly impressive stat: Hackenberg has led FIVE fourth-quarter comebacks over the course of his career. (yes, Michigan 2013 is one of those --- feel free to quibble on the "impressiveness" of that particular one :-) ).
One thing consistent in both years: Hackenberg needs to learn when to just throw the ball away. Don't force it, and don't take a sack. Live to fight the next down (or series).
What in 2015??? I am optimistic, but perhaps I'm a homer too. Even in his WORST games, one always see 3-4 passes and thinks: "now that is why he's being considered for the next level, because that was a next level pass." The potential and raw talent is unquestionably there, at least IMO. Success for Hackenberg in 2015 isn't really about developing the talent, because that IS there. Rather, it's about (a) learning when an incomplete pass is the right move, (b) getting mentally tougher and (c) being more consistent.
I can 100% agree with all of that. He definitely has all the talent in the world and could definitely put it together this year for an incredible year. I personally don't see that happening, but I would not be shocked at all if it did. And if I was a PSU fan I'd definitely be expecting it to happen, just like most Michigan fans did with Gardner until we were let down.
August 12th, 2015 at 8:22 PM ^
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