Attrition Watch: April, 2014 Edition Comment Count

Brian

With Signing Day and spring practice in the rearview mirror, Michigan's roster should remain basically intact until fall and possibly beyond. With the media cottoning on to the enormous hole in the roster created by the last Rodriguez and hybrid Rodriguez/Hoke/Process classes, it's time to update Attrition Watch.

2009

A last look at Rodriguez's first full class. Starter-level contributors are italicized; (sometimes projected) NFL draft picks bolded.

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Jeremy Gallon, Justin Turner, Taylor Lewan

Played Out Eligibility: Will Campbell, Craig Roh, Denard Robinson, Vincent Smith, Brandin Hawthorne, Jeremy Gallon, Taylor Lewan, Quinton Washington, Michael Schofield, Cam Gordon, Fitz Toussaint, Thomas Gordon, Brendan Gibbons

Didn't Take Fifth Year(1): Mike Jones.

Transferred for PT (3): Vlad Emilien, Je'Ron Stokes, Isaiah Bell

Academics/Not Being Nice (3): Justin Turner, Tate Forcier, Adrian Witty

Injury (1): Teric Jones

Left Football: N/A

This class lost a little bit of its luster every time Toussaint tried to pick up a blitz, but this is still a class you can do excellent things with as long as you surround it with other talent. It features two bookend NFL tackles, the season receiving yardage record-holder, Denard Robinson(!), and six to eight other important contributors. Your 11-2 blip is built around these guys.

2010

DOOOOOOOOOOM! Your Freep class.

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Dorsey, Gardner, Vinopal

Enrolled (3): Devin Gardner, Jake Ryan, Will Hagerup

Did Not Take Fifth Year(2): Richard Ash, Jordan Paskorz

Played Out Eligibility(4): Jeremy Jackson, Drew Dileo, Jibreel Black, Courtney Avery.

Transferred for PT (6): Ricardo Miller, Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jerald Robinson, Ray Vinopal

Academics/Not Being Nice (5): Demar Dorsey, Antonio Kinard, Austin White, Davion Rogers, Conelius Jones

Injury (3): Terry Talbott, Terrance Talbott, Christian Pace

Left Football (3): Ken Wilkins, DJ Williamson, Stephen Hopkins

Nothing miserably bad has happened to this already miserably bad class since August. Will Hagerup has hung on to a roster spot; Ash departed after getting his degree, as did Paskorz. That leaves three of 27 players on the roster, including the starting QB and most dynamic player the defense has.

That is of course horrendous, and about 80% of the blame should  be heaped upon Rich Rodriguez. Rodriguez struck out on tight ends and OL left and right during this period, compounding that issue with some horrible talent evaluation—of the guys who left early, only Ray Vinopal has made any kind of impact at a BCS school.

Baumgardner's article comes with a depressing Big Ten retention rate chart showing Michigan at the bottom at 26%; three teams are tied at 40% for next worst: Minnesota (coaching change), Penn State (holistic program implosion), and Indiana (coaching change, is Indiana). No one else has lost more than half their class; Northwestern leads the way at 82% with MSU second.

2011

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Frank Clark 50 pounds ago, Chris Barnett, Tony Posada

This was the hybrid RR/Hoke class in which Hoke found himself with three weeks to pile ten guys in. Late Hoke pickups are denoted with H.

Enrolled (11): Justice Hayes(H), Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor(H), Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, Frank Clark(H), Desmond Morgan, Russell Bellomy(H), Keith Heitzman (H), Jack Miller, Matt Wile(H)

*[Bryant actually committed after Hoke was hired but had been favoring Michigan so long that Rodriguez deserves the credit there.]

Transferred for PT (2): Tamani Carter(H), Thomas Rawls(H).

Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Chris Barnett(H), Kellen Jones

Injury (2): Antonio Poole(H), Chris Bryant.

Left Football (3): Chris Rock (basically: is walk-on at OSU now), Greg Brown, Tony Posada.

Rawls and Bryant are added to the dead list here; the Bryant departure leaves the OL count from the 2010 and 2011 classes at a whopping one, Jack Miller. Rawls was a signing-day reach who represented Peak Fred Jackson as Michigan scrambled after the process; Bryant was a three/four star borderline OL who needed to take a lot of weight off, much like Posada. Posada showed up for a cup of coffee; Bryant couldn't remain healthy enough to stay on the field, though he did start a few games in the middle of last year.

While this class is better than its predecessor it represents the bulk of the seniors on the roster. That's a problem when you've only got 11 of them and one is an offensive lineman. An attrition rate of 45% that could still go up is middling at best, something Michigan could not afford after the 2010 crater.

2012

Redshirt sophomores and juniors.

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Funchess, Henry, Kalis

Enrolled: Dennis Norfleet, Sione Houma, Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Devin Funchess, AJ Williams, Kyle Kalis, Blake Bars, Erik Magnuson, Ben Braden, Ondre Pipkins, Willie Henry, Matt Godin, Mario Ojemudia, Tom Strobel, Chris Wormley, Joe Bolden, Royce Jenkins-Stone, James Ross, Terry Richardson, Jarrod Wilson, Allen Gant, Jeremy Clark.

Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer.

Michigan still has all but one guy from Hoke's first class on the roster. The departure, Kaleb Ringer, had microfracture surgery and transferred to a lower level to play.

At this point there have to be a couple guys teetering on the edge of a transfer because they can't get on the two-deep—that kind of attrition is the sign of a healthy program, not a diseased one. It's worth noting that was Michigan super, super paranoid about bringing in anyone who looked like an academic risk in this class. That seemed like a reaction to the previous two recruiting efforts; now it appears to be just their standard.

2013

Enrolled: 27 of 27.

Nobody from Hoke's second class has exited after one year.

2014

Enrolled: 7 of 16 with the rest pending. There haven't been any whispers of academic issues except with kids Michigan ends up not getting, so it's likely the class arrives intact.

Comments

BlueMan80

April 29th, 2014 at 1:56 PM ^

Instability, AKA Michigan Football 2008-2010, is not.

Young offensive line with "let's throw blocking schemes agains the wall and see what sticks" AKA Michigan Football 2013, is not.

I really hope Hoke and Nuss get the players to develop/progress and get the team prepared to win every game.  Another "do over" at head coach would be a nightmare.  If the team can win and build on the core of young players on the roster, things have a shot of returning to "normal" for Michigan.

joeismyname

April 29th, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^

I am glad to hear a lot of you mention stability as opposed to "all hoke does is wrong"......I have no idea whether Hoke will be here for 5, 10, or 20 years but let the guy build his team.....it's not like almost every loss is a blowout like with richrod. We are in most every game. I will admit to some disappointments on Hoke's end with Borges and a few in game decisions, but you have to give him time as he has showed concern for the righting  of this ship and the ability to recruit and build relationships with great talent. Our unrealistic attitudes towards last year's squad has had this board in a frenzy for months now. Have patience. Look at the stability of programs like Wisconsin, Stanford, Oregon, Kansas st, Msu, Oklahoma state, etc. These are not blue bloods, they are programs that were patient with what they were building and are having lasting success, even with coaching changes.

Michigan was a stable program with 40 years of Bo to Mo to Lloyd....now we need to get back to stability and that starts with patience. You can argue Rrod got hosed and deserved time as well, but you cannot make that argument, then turn your back and say Hoke needs to go. We don't want to be a revolving door like Notre dame.

Whether or not Hoke is long term, his legacy and rebuilding of stability must be long term. The transition whenever Hoke is gone needs to be seamless. If there is any shaking up of the program that needs to happen short term, Hoke needs to do it on his accord so we can keep the players we have and keep the family atmosphere. When you ditch a coach and his system, you essentially ditch all the players he brought in. This is why Manningham, Arrington, Boren, and Mallett all left, as well as some others. We do not want another fallout after all the good talent Hoke has brought in, we are just asking for the revolving door if that happens.

StephenRKass

April 29th, 2014 at 5:57 PM ^

Stability is a huge thing. I realize that many programs tout "family values," etc. And the reality is that each team has some of those qualities. Part of the issue is whether a player fits with a particular "family." Hoke and the other coaches and their wives have built this atmosphere, and it is a wonderful thing to see.

On this note, I really want to stress the bonds between much of the coaching staff. Hoke and Mattison really get along and set the tone, along with their wives. But they aren't the only ones. It really is sad that Borges had to go, as he was well liked. Unfortunately, he cooked his own goose with the complexity of schemes.

Regardless, the point I want to make is that cohesiveness and team spirit and camaraderie are very, very, very important. I have seen this with my own son's teams. He has had good coaches, and bad coaches. But having a great football coach, with a good heart, and a bunch of good assistant coaches, has made a huge, huge, difference, and makes it fun to play. It isn't that my son's teams lose:  they won about 2/3 of their games last year. It is more that win or lose, they get along and enjoy the game and each other. This really helps me understand Hoke and Michigan. Talking at length to Laura Hoke and other staff, I see that this is a huge plus at Michigan. Short of a tire fire this season, I really want all of them to come back for 2015. I believe that is the year when we should see significant improvement across the board, and the depth needed to be much more aggressive.

 

uncleFred

April 29th, 2014 at 6:17 PM ^

Brian takes the time and trouble to present how deeply attrition has damaged the program. Seth does a pretty sophisticated analysis of how experience and age effects an offensive line. If a person combines that information it becomes pretty clear that expectations for 2013 were unreasonably high. I admit that I grossly under estimated the difficulty of "seasoning" an offensive line where the interior players had never taken an in game snap.

The fantasy is occupied by all of you who set the bar to retain Hoke at 9+ wins, or a Big Ten championship, or beating one or both of MSU or Ohio, or pick your fantasy.  

Here is reality. The team has to learn yet another new offense, the third new offense in four years. They are still young and that does make a huge difference in the performance we can reasonably expect. (Doubters and nay sayers please read the mentioned posts.) 

So reality is:

   Hiring Nussmeier gives him two years to get the offense on track which gives Hoke those same two years. As long as this team wins six regular season games Hoke, and those of his staff who he chooses to retain, will be back in 2015. All you fantasy types can complain and whine but that is how 2014 is going to play out.  

But there is good news:

   Despite the challenges there is a good chance that an improved defense will help a still struggling offense to win eight or nine games, and if by chance or luck or fate the offensive line gels quickly and takes a statistically unlikely stride the team could win anywhere from 10-12 regular season games. Unlikely but not impossible. 

So what does this mean for us "fans"?   

It's time to buckle up and stop whining and complaining and return to being fans. It's time to recognize that just as 2013 proved to be a season of very high variance, 2014 has that same potential. It's time that we decide to take the 2014 season as it comes. Be happy for the team's successes and stoic to its stumbles. 

uminks

April 30th, 2014 at 10:44 PM ^

Now in the next couple years, we'll see if he turns into a good coach. I really think 2015 is the earliest we can judge Hoke. I  hope our players really develop this season or I'll be disappointed and perhaps looking for a change. But given the young talent it will be difficult to win more than 8 games this season. That's why I will not get too down with 6 to 8 wins this season. But 2015 there better be much better play with 9 or more wins

Feat of Clay

May 1st, 2014 at 10:30 PM ^

I don't think Dorsey can be counted because he was never admitted. No action was taken on his application because it was never completed (there remained required stuff missing).