How bad is it?
Running for our lives...against UConn
2013. The season of Manball. The season of Devin Gardner. The thumping of CMU. The return of Ol' 98. The full bucket of KFC after Notre Dame. The...WTF just happened?
Brady Hoke appeared poised to repeat the third-year success of past Michigan coaches with more of his recruits taking the field and the full installation of his offensive philosophy of MANBALL. An easier schedule meant 9 wins was almost a worst-case-scenario. Ohio at home was going to be the most significant edition of "The Game" since 2006.
Is it time to throw all of that away?
Michigan is 4-0 heading into its first bye week, but never has undefeated felt so much like a funeral. CMU went as expected, Notre Dame was pure joy; now there is an anxious certainty that armageddon is just around the corner.
You know it's bad when the gif is from The Shining
But I thought, "Maybe it's not as bad as it looks. Maybe there is some semblance of hope in the numbers that I'm just not able to see now." So I set out to find solace in statistics, in search of some great white buffalo to sooth my soul.
Let's start with Akron. We're talking about a team that has picked-up only 17 recruits ranked above two stars on rivals in the last five years. To put that in perspective, Michigan had 17 players with FOUR stars or better in the 2013 class alone. Saying there is a "talent gap" is like calling the Grand Canyon a pothole.
Maybe a chart will make me feel better:
Date | Opponent | Surface | Result | Rush Yards | Pass Yards | Plays | Total Yards | Yards/Play |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08/29/13 | @ UCF | Grass | L 7-38 | 134 | 116 | 60 | 250 | 4.17 |
09/07/13 | James Madison | Turf | W 35-33 | 69 | 287 | 57 | 356 | 6.25 |
09/14/13 | @ 18 Michigan | Turf | L 24-28 | 107 | 311 | 79 | 418 | 5.29 |
09/21/13 | La.-Lafayette | Turf | L 30-35 | 134 | 321 | 70 | 455 | 6.50 |
Totals | 444 | 1035 | 266 | 1479 | 5.56 |
This is Akron's offensive output through their first four games. UCF held Akron to 168 fewer yards and 1.12 fewer yards/play. How bad is 5.29 yards/play? Last season, only Alabama, Northwestern, Ohio State, and South Carolina averaged more yards/play against us. All of those teams finished the season ranked #17 or higher. UMass averaged 3.92 yards/play; Purdue 3.49; Illinois 2.53. Even Nebraska only posted 5.02, while Air Force managed 4.63.
Not since GERG has a cupcake been able to move the ball so effectively against Michigan, and even the 2008 defense had a better average yards/play than 5.29. So yeah, that's really bad. I'm not feeling any better yet. Maybe another chart?
Date | Opponent | Surface | Result | Rush Yards | Pass Yards | Plays | Total Yards | Yards/Play |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08/31/13 | Central Mich. | Turf | W 59-9 | 242 | 221 | 68 | 463 | 6.81 |
09/07/13 | 22 Notre Dame | Turf | W 41-30 | 166 | 294 | 72 | 460 | 6.39 |
09/14/13 | Akron | Turf | W 28-24 | 177 | 248 | 62 | 425 | 6.85 |
09/21/13 | @ Connecticut | Grass | W 24-21 | 192 | 97 | 72 | 289 | 4.01 |
Totals | 777 | 860 | 274 | 1637 | 5.97 |
That's better. Our offense cranked out 6.85 yards/play vs. Akron--even better than we did against CMU. Sure, there were some negative plays and the MANBALL didn't really get going until late, but you can't argue the offense wasn't productive when it piled-up 425 yards on just 62 plays. The real problem was the 62 plays--a number indicative of bad defense and turnovers. If we get to 70 plays--roughly our average in the three other games--we're looking at about 480 yards of offense.
But there was something in that chart that bothered me...
HOLY $#!%!!! We only managed 4.01 yards/play agasint UConn? The only game we did worse than that in 2012 was Nebraska. We put up 4.80 yards/play agasint 'Bama, 5.26 against MSU, and even managed 4.53 against ND. Only MSU and VaTech held us under 4.01 yards/play in 2011 (3.73 and 3.54, respectively) and NO ONE kept us that low in 2010. In 2009, Penn State held us to 3.42. Three teams did in 2008--but those three teams had a combined seven losses. In 2007, Penn State allowed just 3.91, while Ohio didn't let us move: we averaged just 1.49 yards/play.
What do you notice about all those teams? They're good. Most of them were really good. I am not willing to go back further than 2007, but I seriously doubt Michigan has ever had such a poor offensive performance against a cupcake. We averaged 6.22 in The Horror.
I need more chart.
Date | Opponent | Surface | Result | Rush Yards | Pass Yards | Plays | Total Yards | Yards/Play |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08/29/13 | Towson | Grass | L 18-33 | 81 | 206 | 55 | 287 | 5.22 |
09/14/13 | Maryland | Grass | L 21-32 | 25 | 349 | 79 | 374 | 4.73 |
09/21/13 | 18 Michigan | Grass | L 21-24 | 47 | 159 | 57 | 206 | 3.61 |
Totals | 153 | 714 | 191 | 867 | 4.54 |
UConn managed just 3.61 yards/play against us. That's basically what MSU and VaTech did to us in 2011, and it's far better than Towson or Maryland fared against the Huskies. It's even better than the 3.68 yards/play we allowed to CMU. Only Purdue and Illinois were held to lower yards/play in 2012, and only Illinois in 2011. Miami (NTM) and Delaware State were the only teams held under that average in the RR era, and in 2007 we held Minnesota to 3.50 and Notre Dame to...1.44.
So...how bad?
In the Akron game, the defense was really, really bad. Against an opponent whose players barely make the Rivals rankings. In the UConn game, the offense was even worse. While UConn's 40 three-star recruits (and one four-star!) in the last five classes make Akron jealous, they're hardly a football powerhouse.
The good news is that only one side of the ball sucked in both games (although special teams certainly haven't helped much). That kept us from a second-coming of The Horror. The bad news is that we are capable of playing at historically bad levels on both sides of the ball. Elite teams don't do that.
Based on the last two weeks, it's hard to look at any of our remaining games and feel totally secure. We're not playing anyone as bad as Akron or UConn the rest of the way. If our offense plays like they just did, Minnesota could beat us. If our defense plays like they did against Akron, Indiana could beat us. I just threw-up in my mouth thinking about that.
If we can get the team to play to its potential on both sides of the ball, we could definitely still get to double-digits in the win column. That's a big "if". For now, I'm revising my 10-2 prediction to 8-4. We could easily lose four-out-of-five in November, or Penn State could trip us in October.
It's frustrating that I am this nervous/anxious for the Minnesota game as a measuring stick.
September 26th, 2013 at 11:11 AM ^
Maybe Minnesota comes in and lays a stinker and we win by 5 touchdowns. Its a crazy game, and that's why the games are played. I'm going to sit back and watch.
September 26th, 2013 at 11:44 AM ^
Not to be naive, but isn't there a good possibility that part of having a young team is that they tend to play to their opposition. They sure looked flat against Akron, and seemed to take a while to rev up against UCONN. I know the Indianas and Iowas of the B1G aren't elite teams, but they are still a step up from Akron and UCONN. I'd like to believe that the effort and focus on the small things we seemed to do okay against ND is closer to what we'll see going forward.
September 26th, 2013 at 2:47 PM ^
This analysis uses only one metric and seems to dump the context (like gameplan, what offense does to defense/vice-versa, &c.). Brian has come to exact opposite conclusions, and while this is an interesting attempt, I think it's a bit wanting in depth.
September 26th, 2013 at 10:12 PM ^
I dreamed that I drove to Goodland, KS to watch the Michigan vs Iowa game since my local ABC/ESPN affiliate was showing the OK ST. game! Well, IA put their speedster KO returner at RB and WR at times and he scored 5 TD's. Plus a thunderstorm put a 2 hour delay to the game. It was a horrendous blowout by IA. I woke up in a cold sweat!
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