College basketball open thread- Saturday
A lot of good games today. Not too much of note in the Big Ten (although Purdue is showing that they really have improved with their demolition of Minnesota), but a lot elsewhere.
#6 Georgetown is taking on #17 Syracuse right now. Of course we want Syracuse there.
#11 Florida is in a tight one with Kentucky in the first half.
#24 ND travels to #8 Louisville, so we (yuck) want them to win that.
#9 K-State plays at #13 OkSU. There, I think it's okay to root for KSU, since we've beaten them - that's really a nice win on our résumé.
#4 Kansas at Baylor. It's a longshot, but let's go Bears.
And of course, #3 Duke at UNC tonight.
So far they're up a decent amount on Minnesota. With the road win over Wisconsin and staying competitive against Michigan, I think they're a different team now. Watching Ronnie Johnson today vs. against Eastern Michigan is night and day. Rapheal Davis has really come along as well. Hammons may have snapped out of his slump.
3 games, makes our close road win look even better.
You mean Trey Burke's close road win? :)
Yeah I dunno about Michigan in the tournament. That defense means anyone can beat them, but Trey Burke means they can beat anyone else.
We showed against MSU that we can play good team defense (our rebounding was poor, but our initial D was very good). Whether we can do it consistently is the question.
I think we may see the 1-3-1 make a return at times in the tourney. It works best against opponents that haven't seen it much.
Yeah, they definitely seem to have turned the corner. They don't lose much after this year, so they could be a contender next season.
I'd say the only key senior is DJ Byrd, and to be honest I think Purdue might get more production out of a different starter at that spot (such as Donnie Hale, or either of incoming freshmen Bryson Scott or Kendall Stephens) next year than they're getting out of Byrd this year. The best player on the team is Terone Johnson (a junior), but the next four after him are probably Ronnie Johnson (freshman), AJ Hammons (freshman), Sandi Marcius (junior), and Rapheal Davis (freshman).
I can't decide what I want in that Florida-Kentucky game...normally I want the higher ranked team to sink, buuuut I still have hope for Iowa and it would be nice to see Kentucky's bubble popped
why don't they transfer? not saying this makes it better, but isn't it another option for the players?
Goodwin could be a top 10 pick. Poythress and Cauley-Stein are projected to be mid first round picks. Not sure where they got the idea that Noel was their only pro. It simply isn't true.
That mock draft you linked has Cauley-Stein going 10th and Goodwin in the 20s. Most updated mocks still have Poythress mid first round as well.
Minnesota's effective FG% was 33.9% at the half, whereas Purdue is shooting 60.6%. That percentage for Purdue comes despite fewer offensive rebounds and committing a few more turnovers. On the other hand, Purdue has more defensive rebounds and almost twice the assists of Minnesota.
Per Massey, this is probably the only other near-tossup game in the Big Ten this weekend, with the pregame estimate of 59% in favor of Minnesota winning. We have 55% for a win probability against Indiana. They give Iowa and 88% chance against Nebraska, and MSU a 96% chance against Northwestern.
Does Massey take game location into account? I'm surprised Minnesota would be favored when they've been terrible away from the Barn.
Massey says in his own FAQ that he actually does consider homefield advantage (not sure how much as the formula is proprietary, of course) and that early season games are de-rated to a certain degree, which I assume means that conference schedules would tend to mean more then.
Huh. I don't understand why the computers like Minnesota so much. They're on the verge of finishing 8-10 in league play (losing 10 of their last 15) and going 1-8 on the road in conference, but somehow they're considered a lock for the tourney. I know they did some good work out of conference, but their resume to me seems like that of a bubble team at best.
A bubble team at best? Have you looked at who is near the bubble? Most of those teams either have no good wins or a pile of bad losses. 13 top 100 wins, 3-5 against the top 20, only played 3 games against sub 200 competition. They have beaten MSU, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin in conference.
They're an interesting case study. You can make arguments for them both ways. They have a lot of good wins, but the losing conference record - even in a strong conference - hurts them. They certainly seemed like a lock as recently as a week ago. But if they end up finishing the season losing to Nebraska, Purdue and then their 8-9 opponent . . . it could get dicey.
They are a lock. Top 25 RPI and #2 schedule from a power conference. Teams like that never miss. Virginia, who is also on the bubble, has 7 top 100 wins and some how 7 sub 120 losses. They are not even close to the Gophers.
They have a top 25 RPI right now. After today they'll drop (losing to a 100+ team), and if they lose the 8-9 game, which might be a rematch against Purdue, they'll drop further. If they win the Thursday game they're probably OK, but if they lose they could be sweating it out. Late-season collapses can be punished by the committee (our 2006 and 2007 teams come to mind). There's always one team that unexpectedly gets left out. They could be that team.
Palm has them as an 8 seed. They would have to fall to probably a 13 to be left out. 16 teams would have to pass them. As long that RPI stays top 40 they would be fine and it will. Look at who Kentucky, Tenn, St.Mary's, etc. have beaten. Those teams are on the right side of the bubble. A bunch of the bubble teams are in the SEC so they are going to eliminate each other. Who else would jump them? Maryland? No chance. Providence and St. John's probably will need to get to the Big East final. Iowa is going to be in front of them. They don't have the quality wins and they played a weak Big10 schedule. Umass and Xavier probably need to get to the A10 final.
I know Minnesota did a ton to shore up its resume in December (and then opened B1G play with a win over MSU). But they've been horrible for most of the last two months. To lose 10 of your last 15 (and go 1-8 on the road in league play) is pretty unthinkable for a tourney team. I guess they'll survive the selection committee but aside from the IU game (where the hell did that performance come from?) they sure haven't passed the eyeball test for awhile now.
When we played Minnesota, they were ranked #9 in the country. In next week's Big Ten Tournament, they will be the #9 seed out of 12. Unreal.
They would face Indiana in the QF. Could be an earlier exit for the Hoosiers.
Why? Conference rankings are not a criteria for getting a bid and for good reason. The 4 teams in the Big10 Iowa didn't play twice were: Michigan, MSU, OSU, and Illinois. They have no claim to be ahead or even close to Illinois or Minnesota.
Iowa also played a terrible, terrible non-conference schedule (308 SOS in the non-conference). They played 5 teams with a 300+ RPI. And they've kind of had that thing Northwestern had the last few years where they have lost a lot of close games against good teams that would be resume builders (losses by 3 and 4 at home to MSU and IU, respectively; 3 point loss at Minny, a double OT loss at the Trohl Center).
I'm rooting for them to make it, because I like the way they play and because FRAN! is entertaining, but they've kind of dug their own grave by scheduling so poorly and failing to finish games.
We can always hope for Kentucky to loose the first game they play in the SEC tourney. Kentucky is garbage away from home. That would hopefully put them back into the NIT.
a rivalry may die but our hatred is eternal. syracuse is officially closed!
Wow. I was watching Georgetown/Cuse' game for the most part earlier and was assuming the Minnesota/Purdue game was later. Did not know until this thread that Purdue beat their ass. Iowa will now probably finish 6th in the Big Ten. I know people are hell bent saying they're not close to being in as conference "standings" are not a pre-req for Tourney bids, but man the 6th team in the Big Ten not getting a bid?
I think they have a shot, but in reality they are the number 8 team in the Big10. 5-9 against the top 100 isn't good.
I just watched the Nebraska Behemoth try to kill Aaron White. It's not worth the assault charge, man! You play for Nebraska!
Though many "Bracketologists" have Syracuse (23-8, 11-7 in Big East) currently listed as a four seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Orange have dropped four of their last five games, with their only win in that time coming at home against the last-place team in the Big East, DePaul (11-19, 2-15 in Big East before their game today at home against Pitt). Today’s 61-39 loss to Georgetown marked the lowest point total EVER for Syracuse in a Big East game.
Although Syracuse's RPI has been in the top 20 most of the year, and they were 17th before today's game, they've been playing poorly for the past five weeks. Their only win against an RPI top 30 team came on January 19 at Louisville (70-68). Their last win against a top 50 RPI team was at home on February 4 against Notre Dame. If their RPI drops below 20 after today, that's six-seed range for the NCAA Tournament.
Syracuse will finish fifth or sixth in the Big East, so their opening game in the Big East Conference Tournament should be a win, but if they were to lose that game, it would not be unreasonable for Syracuse to wind up with a seven or eight seed in the NCAA Tournament.
As expected, the Big Ten results of today did not change the relative probabilities of our seeding too much, but there is the Wisconsin / Penn State game yet to consider. Wisconsin is a heavy favorite on Massey (80.0% chance of a win), but the game will eliminate one possibility. The table below describes the probabilities in the event of a Wisconsin win or loss:
SEED | RIGHT NOW | WISC. WIN | WISC. LOSS |
1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
2 | 9.35% | 9.35% | 9.35% |
3 | 45.65% | 45.65% | 45.65% |
4 | 9.00% | 0.00% | 45.00% |
5 | 36.00% | 45.00% | 0.00% |
The Baylor Bears came to play tonight! Up 37-28 over KU at the half.