UM Top 10 in simulated post-season BCS
As noted in a prior thread, no official post season BCS rankings exist.* However, correctly calculated, UM finished in the top 10 in the BCS.**
Sweet.
*http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/when-do-final-bcs-standings-come-out
**The author of the calculated rankings said he would “for fun” include USC, using their AP poll finish in place of the Coaches Poll, for which they were ineligible. He found USC to be #10, ahead of UM, but USC would not have been included in any real BCS poll. Furthermore, this calculation was invalidly based on the wrong (AP vs. Coach’s) poll.
http://www.bcsknowhow.com/post-season-bcs-rankings-simulation-alabama-a…
January 12th, 2012 at 9:25 PM ^
Top 10ish.
January 12th, 2012 at 9:51 PM ^
They finished 11th.
January 12th, 2012 at 10:14 PM ^
Also, USC rating not correctly calculated, as stated in the footnote
January 12th, 2012 at 10:02 PM ^
We're kinda #10 in a poll that kinda doesn't really exist. I kinda like that.
January 12th, 2012 at 10:14 PM ^
It seems kind of weird that there wouldn't be a postseason BCS poll, no? I guess if its only purpose is to identify the two teams that play in the championship game, that's fine, but why not publish one just for fun?
January 12th, 2012 at 10:25 PM ^
but the BCS thinks in strange ways.
Possibly, the BCS people worry that the final poll could contradict the results of the BCS game--for instance, if LSU lost to ALA narowly, then in theory, LSU could end up ranked number one in the final BCS poll.
Interesting. Does the BCS consider their ranking method valid only before and not after the final game?
January 13th, 2012 at 1:51 AM ^
the mysterious Harris Poll. It is intentionally set up to not be done after the MNC game. I've been working with my own spreadsheet that uses the Coaches poll, the 6 computer polls (drop the high and the low), and substitutes the AP for the Harris poll. But I hesitated posting it due to the weirdness that USC presents in the AP poll.
It should be noted that USC appears in all of the computer polls. In addition, 3 of the 6 computer polls (Massey, Sagarin, Wolfe) include schools beyond the Div. I-FBS schools. If any schools that are ineligible for FBS post-season make the top 25 on a computer poll, they are ignored and everyone below them moves up one spot.
Thus, the way to properly include the AP poll in this Pseudo-BCS would be to re-calculate the point totals for all 60 ballots, moving up all the schools on each ballot that are below USC (or North Dakota State, although their 2 votes were both for 25th place). There would still be the issue that this would mean that only a Top 24 or 23 would appear on each ballot (since, unlike computers, the AP pollsters do not rank all 120 teams or even the 26th team), but that would just eliminate some of the "others receiving votes" at the tail end and maybe rejigger the last couple of places in the top 25. As it turns out, the ordering is still the same, but it makes the % of perfection (points/1500) more accurate for teams that are eligible for post-season in FBS.
As a note, in the AP, USC votes were between 4th and 12th and averaged around 6th place. Michigan votes were between 8th and 18th and averaged around 12th place. Only one AP voter out of the 60, Desmond Connor, had Michigan rated ahead of USC (9th vs. 12th). So Michigan would have picked up 59 points. Same story for Baylor and Wisconsin. South Carolina would have picked up 55 points.
I couldn't find a site that had a nice spreadsheet with all the ballots together - Pollspeak came the closest, but you either get the data for one school or one voter, not the whole collection at once. There are fewer schools than voters, and I think I got all the data to get this calculated.
So, let's call this PseudoBCS v1.0 for the 2011-2012 season. Here's the top 25, and the others receiving votes. After making the adjustments to the AP calculations, the only changes it made were to swap #22 and #21 Clemson and Texas. Sigh. But this is certainly more true to the BCS calculation than that purported site that knows listed above. (Apologies ahead of time if this table formatting doesn't work ideally).
Final - Jan. 9 | PSEUDO BCS | AP Top 25 | Adj AP | USA Today | Computer Rankings | |||||||||||||||
RK | TEAM | AVG | PVS | RK | PTS | % | RK | Adj Pts | Adj % | RK | PTS | % | AVG | A&H | RB | CM | KM | JS | PW | % |
1 | Alabama | 0.9889 | 2 | 1 | 1495 | 0.9967 | 1 | 1495 | 0.9967 | 1 | 1475 | 1.0000 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.97 |
2 | LSU | 0.9573 | 1 | 2 | 1425 | 0.9500 | 2 | 1425 | 0.9500 | 2 | 1404 | 0.9519 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.97 |
3 | Oklahoma State | 0.9265 | 3 | 3 | 1399 | 0.9327 | 3 | 1399 | 0.9327 | 3 | 1367 | 0.9268 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0.92 |
4 | Arkansas | 0.8343 | 6 | 5 | 1198 | 0.7987 | 5 | 1226 | 0.8173 | 5 | 1188 | 0.8054 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.88 |
5 | Oregon | 0.8146 | 5 | 4 | 1250 | 0.8333 | 4 | 1274 | 0.8493 | 4 | 1290 | 0.8746 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 0.72 |
6 | South Carolina | 0.7423 | 9 | 9 | 1013 | 0.6753 | 8 | 1068 | 0.7120 | 8 | 1084 | 0.7349 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0.78 |
7 | Boise State | 0.7242 | 7 | 8 | 1127 | 0.7513 | 7 | 1162 | 0.7747 | 6 | 1162 | 0.7878 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 0.61 |
8 | Stanford | 0.7144 | 4 | 7 | 1167 | 0.7780 | 6 | 1190 | 0.7933 | 7 | 1106 | 0.7498 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 0.60 |
9 | Baylor | 0.6016 | 12 | 13 | 780 | 0.5200 | 12 | 839 | 0.5593 | 12 | 775 | 0.5254 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 0.72 |
10 | Michigan | 0.5886 | 13 | 12 | 839 | 0.5593 | 11 | 898 | 0.5987 | 9 | 925 | 0.6271 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 0.54 |
11 | Wisconsin | 0.5468 | 10 | 10 | 905 | 0.6033 | 9 | 964 | 0.6427 | 11 | 911 | 0.6176 | 14 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 0.38 |
12 | Oklahoma | 0.5381 | 14 | 16 | 572 | 0.3813 | 15 | 631 | 0.4207 | 15 | 610 | 0.4136 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 0.78 |
13 | Kansas State | 0.5374 | 8 | 15 | 621 | 0.4140 | 14 | 681 | 0.4540 | 16 | 602 | 0.4081 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0.75 |
14 | Michigan State | 0.5299 | 17 | 11 | 873 | 0.5820 | 10 | 932 | 0.6213 | 10 | 912 | 0.6183 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 0.35 |
15 | Houston | 0.4605 | 19 | 18 | 518 | 0.3453 | 17 | 578 | 0.3853 | 14 | 673 | 0.4563 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 12 | 0.54 |
16 | TCU | 0.4256 | 18 | 14 | 653 | 0.4353 | 13 | 713 | 0.4753 | 13 | 710 | 0.4814 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 15 | 0.32 |
17 | West Virginia | 0.3334 | 23 | 17 | 547 | 0.3647 | 16 | 607 | 0.4047 | 18 | 554 | 0.3756 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 0.22 |
18 | Georgia | 0.2951 | 16 | 19 | 439 | 0.2927 | 18 | 497 | 0.3313 | 20 | 345 | 0.2339 | 17 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 20 | 22 | 0.32 |
19 | Virginia Tech | 0.2928 | 11 | 21 | 329 | 0.2193 | 20 | 389 | 0.2593 | 17 | 574 | 0.3892 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 29 | 28 | 0.23 |
20 | Southern Miss | 0.2749 | 21 | 20 | 411 | 0.2740 | 19 | 471 | 0.3140 | 19 | 429 | 0.2908 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 32 | 23 | 13 | 0.22 |
22 | Clemson | 0.1320 | 15 | 22 | 188 | 0.1253 | 21 | 233 | 0.1553 | 22 | 237 | 0.1607 | 26 | 28 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 0.08 |
21 | Texas | 0.1248 | 24 | 30 | 15 | 0.0100 | 29 | 22 | 0.0147 | 28 | 29 | 0.0197 | 16 | 15 | 32 | 21 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 0.34 |
23 | Nebraska | 0.1177 | 20 | 24 | 143 | 0.0953 | 23 | 188 | 0.1253 | 24 | 144 | 0.0976 | 24 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 0.13 |
24 | Auburn | 0.0952 | 25 | 27 | 40 | 0.0267 | 26 | 55 | 0.0367 | 29 | 28 | 0.0190 | 19 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 0.23 |
25 | Florida State | 0.0908 | 28 | 23 | 154 | 0.1027 | 22 | 200 | 0.1333 | 23 | 205 | 0.1390 | 28 | 31 | 27 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 0.00 |
January 13th, 2012 at 12:48 PM ^
I did not realize that the Harris Poll was not done post-season.
January 13th, 2012 at 8:35 AM ^
This might be a dumb question, but is USC ineligible to receive a ranking in the Coaches' Poll / BCS just because they're ineligible for postseason play, or is it a special sanction they were given?
I'm wondering if Ohio will be similarly unranked for all of next season due to their own postseason ineligibility.
January 13th, 2012 at 9:51 AM ^
Not certain, but I believe this will apply to Ohio as well. Someone correct me if I am wrong (not that I need to request such a thing here ;) ).
January 14th, 2012 at 8:12 PM ^
to get back with the reply, but here's the official details.
The USA Today Coaches Poll (Presented by Allstate (tm)) has this footnote this year:
Because it is serving an NCAA-imposed bowl ban, Southern California is not eligible to receive votes this season under AFCA policy.
Thus, osu will likewise be ineligible to receive votes next season in this poll.
Had not noticed it before, but right above this statement was the last voter alphabetically in the list - Ron Zook. I guess ex-coaches get to vote as well (didn't study the whole list but there are probably a few others in there).
January 13th, 2012 at 7:35 PM ^
Go Blue!