Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Wisconsin, Big Ten Tournament

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Wisconsin, Big Ten Tournament

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on March 7th, 2018 at 10:41 AM

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[Bill Rapai]

Friday, March 2, 2018

#3 Michigan 6, #6 Wisconsin 5

[Note: numbers refer to BTT seeding]

1st period

CALDERONE GOAL

UM 1 UW 0 EV 1:40 Assists: Marody & Cecconi

Cecconi puts some mustard on a backhanded clearing attempt and gets the puck out of Michigan’s defensive zone.

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The puck stays more or less on the wall and looks like it’s about to be stopped by Tischke’s skates.

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until it somehow gets through. You can see Marody locked onto the puck in the screencap above, and he’s in perfect position to pick it up and go once it gets past the UW skater. To Tischke’s credit, he makes the right move once the split second he realizes the puck is past him. He turns and moves to get into a position where he can take away Marody’s passing lane to his right.

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That doesn’t mean Tischke’s actually able to take away said lane, though. Marody gets the pass through to Calderone, who’s perfectly aligned. This is extra dangerous for Wisconsin because Calderone is a right-handed shot, so he’s going to get the puck on his on hand.

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It’s also extra dangerous because there aren’t many skaters at this level who can lift a puck from in tight like Calderone. This isn’t the closest to the net that I’ve seen him go top shelf this season, but it’s still impressive because he does it at full speed while allowing the puck to slide past the midpoint of his body to where he wants to shoot, slightly outside his frame to his right.

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[Analysis of the other 743 goals after THE JUMP]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Notre Dame

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Notre Dame

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on February 20th, 2018 at 4:00 PM

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[James Coller]

Friday, February 16, 2018

#1 Notre Dame 2, #18 Michigan 4

1st period

WINBORG GOAL

ND 0 UM 1 EV 12:34 Assists: Hughes & Cecconi

Hughes carries the puck into the zone and starts down the wing long enough to draw a defender, Gilbert, toward him. Gilbert is wise not to step up and into Hughes because Raabe is coming down the wing and, as far as timing is concerned, in excellent position to receive a drop pass.

Hughes waits until Gilbert gets close before making his move. He sees that Gilbert’s moving more or less in a straight line toward the boards, so he cuts up toward the blue line and moves laterally across it.

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Adam Winborg is the Michigan skater in the blue box below. Dawson Cook is the Notre Dame skater in the blue box below. Quinn Hughes is the puck carrier in the screen cap below. Two of the people in said screen cap have just noticed that Winborg is headed for the front of the net. One of them has the puck and is in good position to shoot, and the other has to shift his weight and chase Winborg.

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Winborg keeps his blade on the ice and Hughes’ shot hits it and goes airborne. The puck goes in over Morris’ shoulder in one of the only ways he can be beaten.

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[After THE JUMP: good defense creates offense, though crazy accuracy and puck luck helps, too]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Penn State

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Penn State

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on January 23rd, 2018 at 12:02 PM

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I agree with Luke Martin [Bill Rapai]

Friday, January 19, 2018

#20 Michigan 4, #12 Penn State 0

1st period

BECKER GOAL

UM 1 PSU 0 EV 12:27 Assists: Norris & Slaker

Becker picks up the puck behind the net and passes up the boards for Norris. He then heads for the front of the net as Slaker loops around and gets into position to receive a pass on the red line. Michigan’s power play has just expired (see the still-present chyron at the top of the screen cap) but they’re still looking to isolate and exploit one defender’s coverage.

Norris holds the puck long enough to get the high defender to commit to shutting down the passing lane back to the point, which leaves him a clear pass to Slaker with one defender having to temper his aggressiveness since he’s playing a 2-on-1.

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Norris starts to skate for the front of the net after he passes, then he curls around to get in position for a pass from Slaker. Meanwhile, Slaker skates up to where Norris was; Hults circles and sticks with Slaker, leaving Norris for someone else to check. No one does, though, as Biro pursues Norris and then breaks off his path to get back to the top corner of the now-unnecessary box for…reasons. This leaves Norris wiiiiide open.

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Norris has a clear shot but also has an option since Becker has gotten great position in front of the net, rotating to open himself up so that he could take a pass. The defender on Becker has definitely not gotten great position, instead going around Becker and leaving himself walled off by the guy he’s supposed to be covering.

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Norris’ shot goes off the back of Becker’s blade and in before Autio can even think about getting his stick around Becker. I think he went over the top of Becker to potentially play the lane between Norris and Becker and was way too late to even finish getting to that part of the ice.

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[After THE JUMP: no more cycling but some unreal passing]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Minnesota

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Minnesota

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on January 16th, 2018 at 11:08 AM

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a defenseman in a shooting lane was a common sight this series [JD Scott]

Friday, January 12, 2018

#9 Minnesota 3, Michigan 5

1st period

DANCS GOAL

MINN 0 MICH 1 EV 00:14 Assists: Calderone

Michigan has Calderone high to forecheck, and his presence at the edge of the neutral zone is enough to get Lindgren to pass the puck to Sadek along the boards. Dancs reads the pass and comes charging hard at Sadek.

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Dancs’ rapid pursuit causes Sadek to recoil, and the puck rolls off his stick as he pulls it back across his body. Calderone has skated to the area and picks up the loose puck, turning with it and entering the offensive zone with Sadek in pursuit.

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Sadek closes the gap quickly and Calderone feels the pressure. He decides his best play is to pass back to Dancs, who has plenty of space to operate and picks up the pass cleanly.

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Dancs starts to cut through the middle of the faceoff circle when he pulls the puck out to his side. He holds it there long enough that Sadek reads it as a shot and gets ready to block it. Sadek pulls his stick in and starts to bring his knees together; Dancs still has the puck held out to his side and now has room to shoot around Sadek. He doesn’t try to dangle Sadek, instead opting for a filthy snapshot that beats Robson in the far-side top corner. It’s a perfectly-placed shot, and it doesn’t go in if a.) the goalie has an elite glove hand or b.) the shooter misses his mark.

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[After THE JUMP: this post is antithetical to showing good defense but it was there and we should talk about it]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Notre Dame

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Notre Dame

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on January 9th, 2018 at 10:03 AM

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[Fuller]

Friday, January 5, 2018

Michigan 1, #2 Notre Dame 2

1st Period

Hellickson goal

UM 0 ND 1 PPG 4:44 Assists: Morrison & Burke

Hellickson passes to Evans, whom Slaker tries to close on. Evans turns on the puck and fires, which causes Slaker to drop in an attempt to block the shot. It gets through, but Lavigne makes the save.

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Not without giving up a long and, if you’re Michigan, very unfortunately placed rebound, though. Burke is lurking in the faceoff circle (as you would expect in a 1-3-1) and he doesn’t even have to move to have a perfect opportunity for a one-timer. The rebound happens so quickly that Martin’s spinning around to see where the puck went and Winborg is pushing off his back skate by the time the puck is released.

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Another in a series of unfortunate rebounds, the puck hits Lavigne and falls directly in front of him. Piazza is trying to shove Morrison out of the crease to no avail, and with Martin having taken a step toward Burke there’s space for Morrison to get off a shot.

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[Find the rest of this goal, all the others, and some thoughts on where Michigan stands after this series after THE JUMP]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Michigan State

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Michigan State

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on December 12th, 2017 at 10:16 AM

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[Schnepp (yeah, seriously)]

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Michigan 4, Michigan State 0

1st period

No scoring

2nd period

UM 1 MSU 0 PPG 7:38 Norris from Cecconi & Slaker

Slaker tries to take away the pass down low but the State skater hangs on and hands on and hangs on and eventually forces the pass low. Cecconi reads this and steps in front to pick it off. He proceeds to flip the puck out of the zone and to Becker, who’s waiting for it at the edge of the neutral zone.

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Becker carries in and avoids a cursory stick sweep, which he counters by dropping the puck back for Norris to retrieve upon entering the offensive zone.

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Norris reads the depth of the defensemen and sees that there might be a stick in his passing lane, but there’s a good chance a saucer pass would get the puck to a very open Slaker. He lifts it, but Slaker loses the puck and has to reset. It takes a fraction of a second; the shot is now a writer instead of a one-timer, and the fraction of a second is enough time for Lethemon to read it and safely steer the shot to the corner.

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The puck-side defenseman turns to block the shot and then steps in to clear the rebound. He has Slaker in his face and can’t afford to turn and try to carry it out without taking a gamble; there’s a good chance Slaker strips the puck from him if he does anything but fling it out of the zone. The pressure results in a weak clear, and the puck bounces off the boards about halfway up the zone.

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Becker comes over to get the puck and thinks twice, instead pointing at it for Cecconi to take it. Allowing a defenseman an unimpeded slap shot from the blue line is, at the very least, a good way to get the puck into traffic and maybe deflected. That’s not needed here, though, as Cecconi shoots a top-corner laser over Lethemon’s glove.

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[After THE JUMP: one night Calderone’s putting up a hat trick, the next night the offense stalls and the defense forgets what a backside skater is]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Lake Superior State

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Lake Superior State

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on November 30th, 2016 at 1:05 PM

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[James Coller/MGoBlog]

Friday, November 25, 2016

#16 Michigan 1, Lake Superior State University 3

1st period

No scoring

2nd period

CALDERONE GOAL

UM 1 LSSU 0 PPG 11:51 Assists: Dancs & Martin

Pastujov is carrying the puck in while being hounded by a defender to his right. He’s far enough from the boards that he can spin and bank the puck back to Martin, who’s hovering near the blue line. This also causes the defender to come off of Pastujov and chase Martin. There’s plenty of space for Martin to survey, and with no high defender he passes to the opposite side of the offensive zone.

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Dancs gets the pass from Martin cleanly. He doesn’t have to look far for his next move, as Calderone sees the pass coming across and starts to skate across the slot and almost out in order to get himself into position for a pass from Dancs.

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The defender nearest Calderone makes a mistake, jutting his stick out to take away a passing lane to the front of the net when the puck’s far more likely to go to the guy who’s wearing white and right next to him. Dancs passes, and Calderone gathers it on the forehand. The defender who was on Pastujov and then was chasing Martin at the point is now doing his best to get his stick out and break up the pass (to no avail).

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Calderone settles the puck and fires relatively quickly, and I don’t think the goaltender was expecting this. Calderone’s able to get the puck from almost behind him to right in front really quickly, and though the goalie’s attempting to butterfly it appears as though he’s a half second off; in the screen cap below you can see the puck’s more than halfway there and his five-hole is still open.

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[After THE JUMP: winning Corsi, more goals, and looking ahead to Penn State]

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Boston University

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Boston University

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on November 17th, 2016 at 11:00 AM

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[James Coller/MGoBlog]

Friday, November 11, 2016

#18 Michigan 4, #4 Boston University 0

1st period

LOCKWOOD GOAL

UM 1 BU 0 PPG 10:04 Assists: Piazza & Slaker

Slaker wins the draw cleanly back to Piazza. He surveys options in front of him and sees that nothing’s developed yet, so he starts to move laterally with the puck; you can see that Lockwood’s already on the same page and moving to his left.

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Slaker cuts to the middle of the ice to give Piazza a passing option to the right, while Lockwood loops behind Piazza and presents an option to the left. You can see in this screen cap that there’s only one defender involved in the play, and since Slaker gets in front of him he now isn’t sure whether he should stay in place, carry Slaker, or start to his right to pick up Lockwood.

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The defender decides to shove Slaker and then stay in place, which meansh he has to dig in and sprint once he sees Piazza pass to Lockwood.

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Lockwood has all the time he needs to make a decision and a move, and he decides that he wants to wrong-foot a shot from the top of the circle and hope that the traffic in the shooting lane screens the goaltender.

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The puck grazes the side of the BU defender at the bottom of the faceoff circle and slightly changes direction, and BU’s Jake Oettinger has almost no chance at stopping the shot.

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[After THE JUMP: moooooore goals (also, more goals for the other guys)]

Unverified Voracity Hates Recruiting

Unverified Voracity Hates Recruiting

Submitted by Brian on January 19th, 2016 at 3:30 PM

Harbaugh hates recruiting. Check the timestamp.

Hates it.

There is nothing that has a winner and a loser that Jim Harbaugh hates.

Funny money. OSU announced a huge Nike contract that was a ton more than Michigan in the same way that NFL contracts have a huge headline number but are actually something less remarkable under the hood. The OSU edge is in apparel awarded, which the Buckeyes padded out for the shiny number. The actual details:

  • Both schools have a 15-year deal; Michigan has an opt-out after 11.
  • Michigan gets 12 million upfront; OSU gets 20.
  • OSU gets 3.44 million for the first 11 years and 4.44 for the last four.
  • M gets 4.82 million for the first ten years, 5.32 in 11, and 5.82 for the last four.
  • Total dough: Michigan, 88.8 million. Ohio State, 75.6 million.

OSU gets more upfront but inflation isn't sufficient to make up the deficit, especially since Michigan has an opt-out four years earlier. So OSU's "biggest ever contract" actually delivers 13 million fewer dollars than Michigan's. But OSU gets more Nike volleyballs so they've got that going for them.

Thanks, guys. Michigan lands a couple guys on CBS's list of the best players to pass on the NFL draft this year:

Jake Butt, Michigan TE: Butt had a chance to jump up in a weak tight end class in the NFL Draft but chose to return for his senior season instead. Michigan's passing game could see a boost next season with Houston transfer John O'Korn getting a shot at starters reps after sitting out which would mean even better numbers (and more draft film) for Butt heading into 2017.

Jourdan Lewis, Michigan CB: Lewis and King will be the easy picks for preseason All-Big Ten in 2016 and likely be compared through the season as the Thorpe Award narrows its list for next year. Lewis was also an All-Big Ten and All-American pick this year and leads what has suddenly become a stacked secondary in Ann Arbor.

Desmond King and Dan Feeney also make the list, which is bereft of Buckeyes.

That one play to Hill in the BYU game. James Light breaks down the "T-delay" passing concept, which Michigan pulled out for a big first down against BYU and again in the bowl game:

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The Patriots run a version of it as well; the idea is to sell yourself as a blocker before releasing. Light also has some defensive resources I'm trying to figure out.

Meanwhile at the Shrine Game. Graham Glasgow is leaping off the page to multiple observers.

Meanwhile he was Mike Mayock's main takeaway early:

"He was the guy who really stood out to me," Mayock said. "It's a strong year for centers, but he looks like an NFL starter. Very strong. He could compete at the Senior Bowl."

Seniors Ryan Kelly of Alabama and Nick Martin of Notre Dame are considered the top two centers in this year's draft, followed by another 7-8 with draftable grades. Glasgow now should be firmly in that latter category, and could move up to mid-round status as the draft process continues

Would it be gauche of me to point out that this is another mark in the "UFR is useful and I am not an idiot" column? It would be? Aw, hamburgers.

OSU fallout. Michigan got off rather light:

With the NTDP game next that means Martin will be back after the Penn State series and Dancs will only miss one game.

1980 seniors. Via Dr. Sap:

Smooth move. USA Hockey left Kyle Connor off the WJC team for… reasons. Chris Dilks notes that those were probably not good reasons:

3. Kyle Connor has played eight games since being snubbed by the US World Junior and has scored 20 points. The rest of the Big Ten might be even madder that he didn't get picked than I am. Connor is now tied for the national lead in goals scored with 18 and tied for second in points with 36. His linemate Tyler Motte is also at 18 goals and tied atop the leaderboard in goal-scoring.

He has various other takes from Michigan-OSU and the rest of college hockey in that post.

Midterm hockey rankings. Midterm ratings from the CSB indicate most of Michigan's incoming hockey class should get drafted:

As always, Central Scouting splits North American and European skaters so multiply by 1.5 to get an approximate draft slot. Luce would be a third rounder, Lockwood in the fourth or fifth, and so on.

In addition to those guys Michigan also brings in D Luke Martin, who will not be eligible for the NHL draft until 2017. He is projected as a first round pick, and depending on who you listen to possibly a top ten pick.

One thing to watch: Michigan brings in a whopping eight skaters next year despite having just two seniors (and goalie Steve Racine). While a couple of NHL departures are likely (Werenski is all but foreordained at this point), Michigan is going to have to push some guys back to 2017 or carry a big roster next year. One player (Lukas Samuelsson) has not been announced by Michigan is a walk-on; everyone else is signed to at least some money.

Michigan has a big fish coming in the next year when Michael Pastujov, the younger brother of Nick listed above, arrives. This random NHL mock draft site has him going 4th overall. The NTDP appears to be absolutely loaded, BTW, with six of the top 15 picks in that admittedly speculative mock draft.

Jabrill is okay. Would recruit again.

Of course. The ACC and SEC are trying to ban satellite camps because… they in fact have no reason to do so, they just want to. I'd like to point you to this article from last summer where I gently explain to an Alabama fan that satellite camps are good for prospects as if he cares about that.

Next up, I explain to Penn State fans why making gay jokes about Jim Harbaugh in-home visits is a bad look.

Etc.: Jedd Fisch gets extended two years. His cost was artificially low because he was on a buyout from the Jaguars; this should help keep him around a while. Passing game made huge progress this year.

Partridge on his promotion. Basketball sets a home and home with Cinci the next two years. Walk-on tryouts are on the 23rd. Kenpom on one of the ways RPI is broken. Kiper says Willie Henry could be a first-rounder. Corn Nation on Lawrence Phillips.

More cord-cutting. Sports are actually moving back to broadcast for the greater reach!

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Michigan State

Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Michigan State

Submitted by Adam Schnepp on January 12th, 2016 at 10:00 AM

Friday, January 8, 2016

MSU 2, #8 Michigan 9

1st period

MSU 1 UM 0 EV 09:26 Appleton from Draeger & MacEachern

Selman comes up to the point to try and check Draeger, but he avoids Selman and skates deeper into the zone. Nieves sees this and steps up to cover.

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Appleton is in the opposite faceoff circle banging his stick on the ice and Draeger obliges, passing through the empty part of the slot. 

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Appleton one-times the puck and it hits Cecconi's skate, changing angles and easily beating Racine. There's nothing he can do about a deflection off of a skate that close to the net; it's also worth noting that this play is otherwise well defended.

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[After THE JUMP: Jake Hildebrand stars as Devin Gardner in "Oh. Oh Wow. We Are So Sorry."]