Unverified Voracity Hates Recruiting

Submitted by Brian on January 19th, 2016 at 3:30 PM

Harbaugh hates recruiting. Check the timestamp.

Hates it.

There is nothing that has a winner and a loser that Jim Harbaugh hates.

Funny money. OSU announced a huge Nike contract that was a ton more than Michigan in the same way that NFL contracts have a huge headline number but are actually something less remarkable under the hood. The OSU edge is in apparel awarded, which the Buckeyes padded out for the shiny number. The actual details:

  • Both schools have a 15-year deal; Michigan has an opt-out after 11.
  • Michigan gets 12 million upfront; OSU gets 20.
  • OSU gets 3.44 million for the first 11 years and 4.44 for the last four.
  • M gets 4.82 million for the first ten years, 5.32 in 11, and 5.82 for the last four.
  • Total dough: Michigan, 88.8 million. Ohio State, 75.6 million.

OSU gets more upfront but inflation isn't sufficient to make up the deficit, especially since Michigan has an opt-out four years earlier. So OSU's "biggest ever contract" actually delivers 13 million fewer dollars than Michigan's. But OSU gets more Nike volleyballs so they've got that going for them.

Thanks, guys. Michigan lands a couple guys on CBS's list of the best players to pass on the NFL draft this year:

Jake Butt, Michigan TE: Butt had a chance to jump up in a weak tight end class in the NFL Draft but chose to return for his senior season instead. Michigan's passing game could see a boost next season with Houston transfer John O'Korn getting a shot at starters reps after sitting out which would mean even better numbers (and more draft film) for Butt heading into 2017.

Jourdan Lewis, Michigan CB: Lewis and King will be the easy picks for preseason All-Big Ten in 2016 and likely be compared through the season as the Thorpe Award narrows its list for next year. Lewis was also an All-Big Ten and All-American pick this year and leads what has suddenly become a stacked secondary in Ann Arbor.

Desmond King and Dan Feeney also make the list, which is bereft of Buckeyes.

That one play to Hill in the BYU game. James Light breaks down the "T-delay" passing concept, which Michigan pulled out for a big first down against BYU and again in the bowl game:

screen-shot-2016-01-13-at-6-41-09-pm[1]

The Patriots run a version of it as well; the idea is to sell yourself as a blocker before releasing. Light also has some defensive resources I'm trying to figure out.

Meanwhile at the Shrine Game. Graham Glasgow is leaping off the page to multiple observers.

Meanwhile he was Mike Mayock's main takeaway early:

"He was the guy who really stood out to me," Mayock said. "It's a strong year for centers, but he looks like an NFL starter. Very strong. He could compete at the Senior Bowl."

Seniors Ryan Kelly of Alabama and Nick Martin of Notre Dame are considered the top two centers in this year's draft, followed by another 7-8 with draftable grades. Glasgow now should be firmly in that latter category, and could move up to mid-round status as the draft process continues

Would it be gauche of me to point out that this is another mark in the "UFR is useful and I am not an idiot" column? It would be? Aw, hamburgers.

OSU fallout. Michigan got off rather light:

With the NTDP game next that means Martin will be back after the Penn State series and Dancs will only miss one game.

1980 seniors. Via Dr. Sap:

Smooth move. USA Hockey left Kyle Connor off the WJC team for… reasons. Chris Dilks notes that those were probably not good reasons:

3. Kyle Connor has played eight games since being snubbed by the US World Junior and has scored 20 points. The rest of the Big Ten might be even madder that he didn't get picked than I am. Connor is now tied for the national lead in goals scored with 18 and tied for second in points with 36. His linemate Tyler Motte is also at 18 goals and tied atop the leaderboard in goal-scoring.

He has various other takes from Michigan-OSU and the rest of college hockey in that post.

Midterm hockey rankings. Midterm ratings from the CSB indicate most of Michigan's incoming hockey class should get drafted:

As always, Central Scouting splits North American and European skaters so multiply by 1.5 to get an approximate draft slot. Luce would be a third rounder, Lockwood in the fourth or fifth, and so on.

In addition to those guys Michigan also brings in D Luke Martin, who will not be eligible for the NHL draft until 2017. He is projected as a first round pick, and depending on who you listen to possibly a top ten pick.

One thing to watch: Michigan brings in a whopping eight skaters next year despite having just two seniors (and goalie Steve Racine). While a couple of NHL departures are likely (Werenski is all but foreordained at this point), Michigan is going to have to push some guys back to 2017 or carry a big roster next year. One player (Lukas Samuelsson) has not been announced by Michigan is a walk-on; everyone else is signed to at least some money.

Michigan has a big fish coming in the next year when Michael Pastujov, the younger brother of Nick listed above, arrives. This random NHL mock draft site has him going 4th overall. The NTDP appears to be absolutely loaded, BTW, with six of the top 15 picks in that admittedly speculative mock draft.

Jabrill is okay. Would recruit again.

Of course. The ACC and SEC are trying to ban satellite camps because… they in fact have no reason to do so, they just want to. I'd like to point you to this article from last summer where I gently explain to an Alabama fan that satellite camps are good for prospects as if he cares about that.

Next up, I explain to Penn State fans why making gay jokes about Jim Harbaugh in-home visits is a bad look.

Etc.: Jedd Fisch gets extended two years. His cost was artificially low because he was on a buyout from the Jaguars; this should help keep him around a while. Passing game made huge progress this year.

Partridge on his promotion. Basketball sets a home and home with Cinci the next two years. Walk-on tryouts are on the 23rd. Kenpom on one of the ways RPI is broken. Kiper says Willie Henry could be a first-rounder. Corn Nation on Lawrence Phillips.

More cord-cutting. Sports are actually moving back to broadcast for the greater reach!

Comments

Candor for Sale

January 19th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^

If there isn't already, there needs to be an ongoing list somewhere with predictions on what things Harbaugh will do to impress recruits in the future. You literally cannot post anything that can be considered "too" outlandish.

wolverine1987

January 19th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^

It never made sense to pull content off Broadcast in the first place, and even less now. That's because calble penetration has always been below full adoption--if 90% of the audience has/had cable, you are giving up millions of potential viewers even when cable was at it's height, and even more now.

MI Expat NY

January 19th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^

Although, prior to cord cutting, what percentage of that 10% that didn't have cable were the type of consumer an average marketer was going after?  I doubt it was very high.  Probably consisted mostly of people without the means for cable, old people, or people that just didn't watch much TV.  In that context it made sense to give cable channels more valuable content which could drive up the per subscriber fee.

My question on cord cutting is when does it reach a point where the ISP (which is typically a company that also has a cable tv function) makes some serious attempts at monetizing the high bandwidth users who stream everything without a cable subscription?  I've contended that for a while cable companies were content to let the small portion of cord cutters go because figuring out a new business model was too taxing.  However, as big time companies like ESPN start to feel the pinch, I wouldn't be surprised to see non-tv inclusive internet packages become much, much more expensive for those looking to stream.  

I'm not entirely convinced that what we're currently seeing isn't so much the new, lasting normal of paying just for internet and a couple streaming services at a fraction of the cable tv cost, but rather a Napster-like interruption for the TV industry, necessitating a replacement business model is to come (a la itunes) that won't be as cheap for consumers.  No doubt the cable tv industry is going to see massive upheaval and it was incredibly dumb to have made decisions in the recent past based on the cable tv industry.  But, I'm not convinced that ESPN and co. aren't going to figure out some replacement model in the future that keeps them afloat.  The only way I see the current cable companies getting completely cut out is if non-tv affiliated ISP (google, for instance) become big enough and deliver high enough quality service to eliminate the current major batch of ISPs consisting of the cable and phone companies.  

Bodogblog

January 19th, 2016 at 4:52 PM ^

Yes, this.  They always figure it out.  

I understand these things are not the same, but AT&T was going bankrupt forever and never ever coming back because people were abandoning their home phone lines.  You were going to have a $10-$20 internet connection and a $30 mobile phone bill.  Everybody was going to save money.  Didn't turn out that way because too many rich/important people would stop getting paid, so they figured out how to keep from getting not paid. 

schreibee

January 19th, 2016 at 5:03 PM ^

Unless bodog is a secret Mgoblog user name for the Donald, please don't ever conflate rich/important again.

Yes, bandwidth is gonna COST in the future to pay for all this "cable cutting," and yes most certainly rich people will get richer doing it..

But "important"?!

Cumong man

wile_e8

January 19th, 2016 at 4:22 PM ^

I always assumed it was moved to drive, or at least retain, cable subscription. After all, if you need cable to watch certain can't-miss events, you're more likely to pay for cable. The TV execs didn't care if it had marginally fewer viewers because any lost advertising revenue was made up in cable fees, and the sports execs don't care because they were getting paid either way. Or at least the sports execs didn't care until cord cutters caused the ratings to drop so much that ESPN and company aren't going to pay as much anymore.

jmdblue

January 19th, 2016 at 4:30 PM ^

need some reason to view their $8/month product.  The way to do that is content.  Placing major events on cable used to allow maintanance of subscriber fees and the vast majority of ad revenue.  Now it doesn't.  The model worked until it didn't.

Richard75

January 20th, 2016 at 5:38 AM ^

?

The TV execs may be making mistakes now, but the original move to go to cable despite broadcast's higher penetration was unassailably wise. The very reason we're talking about all this is because of what a cash cow ESPN became. They did so because of subscriber fees, which make up for the lesser reach (and then some, in ESPN's case).

Yes, that model is unraveling now, but only now.

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Tuebor

January 19th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^

Who wouldn't love going on a road trip with their son and a long time close family friend.  I think it is safe to say that Harbaugh is having a lot fun. 

jmdblue

January 19th, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^

I assume we're keeping the powder dry unless/until we actually know something... Not something I would look forward to writing about from Dear Leader's position.

Onward.

ItsGreatToBe

January 19th, 2016 at 4:05 PM ^

NFL talking heads: "Harbaugh hates recruiting so much that he's doubling down on his efforts to win a National Championship so he can build his resume for the hottest NFL job that becomes available after the 2016-17 season. What other reason would possess someone to climb trees, lose sleep, piss off other conferences with satellite camps, and bake birthday cakes. Oakland...ERRRR...LA is totally in play."

DarkWolverine

January 19th, 2016 at 7:30 PM ^

Covers the Cash Side
But incomplete since the deal is similar parts cash and equipment(and other considerations). Brian implies the OSU is messing with the numbers, but Nike is a public company and such contracts are material to their business and must be accurately stated by law. The deals are probably similar or Nike management would be doing a poor job for shareholders. What is still not known is how much money did it cost for Hackett to choose versus the rumored higher contracts from UA and adidas? Perhaps Brian will do a FOIA request to find out.

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Ray

January 19th, 2016 at 5:26 PM ^

Just on the numbers Brian used and came up with a 15-yr NPV (both schools) of $64.3M for us and $57.7M for tOSU. At the 11-yr mark, ours is worth $52.3M, which means even with the out clause we're within 10% of their NPV and we can renegotiate a better deal (or stay in this one) while OSU has their hands tied for another 4 years. This is all back of the envelope but I think directionally it's pretty good.

Obviously the value of the royalties, volleyballs, etc will change this a lot. But this part of the deal seems comparatively good for us.

Edit: you just beat me to it! Numbers seem consistent.

Sopwith

January 19th, 2016 at 5:33 PM ^

I'm always trying to see this from the Nebraska/Osborne side of things. I get why O kept Phillips on the team. It's a credible argument that he needed structure and his "football family." I also think saying his background of abuse "is no excuse for his behavior" is a little like saying a mother's drinking and chain smoking during pregnancy is no excuse for a kid to be brain damaged. Yes, it kind of is an excuse, one that doesn't remove consequences but does a lot to explain.

But the part I just don't see any Nebraska fan addressing is why Osborne had to go beyond just keeping him as part of the team and needed to make him the feature back in the National Championship game. There were plenty of people who practiced just as hard as LP who didn't get to play in that (or in some cases, any games). Putting LP out there, whether fairly or unfairly, opens up Osborne to what has become the non-NU consensus view: that he enabled Phillips' dangerous behavior and, and the end of the day, did it because having LP on the field increased Nebraska's win probability. By a lot. 

And this comment about LP's attack on his girlfriend didn't help Osborne's treatment by history (LINK):

 

Osborne added: "Lawrence and I have agreed on what happened and there's no question, I wouldn't call it a beating, but he certainly did inflict some damage to the young lady. She was dragged down some stairs and there were some injuries."

UMProud

January 19th, 2016 at 6:19 PM ^

For those of us who are fathers we especially appreciate how happy JH looks in this picture.  He is living the dream which, as many fathers dream, is having your son in the "family business".  Harbaugh has his son Jay working with him, earning a good living and having fun.  It truly does not get any better than this...I am fairly envious of Jim Harbaugh.

vertiGoBlue

January 20th, 2016 at 6:48 AM ^

Nice video tribute to the 1980 seniors. I was a freshman during academic year '79-'80 and had season tickets for football - good memories of that team/year (with, of course, the Indiana game being the most memorable).

MGoMagee

January 20th, 2016 at 7:52 AM ^

Anyone else excited about the future of our defensive backfield? This year alone:

1) Josh Metellus

2) Devin Gil

3) Antwaine Richardson

4) possibly Amir Mitchell/brad hawkins

Potential commits:

5) David Long

6) Vert Hill

7) Khaleke Hudson

8) Jordan Fuller

9) Isaiah Simmons

 

That is going to be quite the combination even if we only get 3/5 on the potential guys (which is the most probably IMO)