Mason NEEDS this, Pistons, after all you've put him through
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|9 weeks 3 days ago||Pretty charts are welcome,||
Pretty charts are welcome, but not the background images
|21 weeks 4 days ago||You're right and that's||
You're right and that's depressing.
|21 weeks 4 days ago||While I agree that running||
While I agree that running the ball on 4th and 2 might have been successfull less than 30% of the time, I believe there are less conservative playcalls that would have done better. Spreading the field and looking for a quick slant/hitch/out + have Devin scramble if nothing is open HAS to be at least 30% successful - I would suspect much more.
Love the going for it, hate the play.
|22 weeks 2 days ago||It's pretty telling that in||
It's pretty telling that in 2008, that tire-fire of an offense with zero credible passing threat, our running backs never performed this terribly. Against Utah - the worst rushing game of the year - our backs still got 2.4 ypc. I just can't believe that the offensive talent level on this team is worse than 2008.
|23 weeks 2 days ago||This play could so easily||
This play could so easily option off that slot LB. Have Funches run a slant or a hitch, give Gardner an actual read at the mesh point. If Gardner pulls on the second play, any throw to Funchess is at least 5 yards with a single safety to beat. There's got to be something in place to punish that blind aggression.
|26 weeks 4 hours ago||Alright, I put way too much||
Alright, I put way too much effort into this, but it's an interesting question. Weighing all of those factors is difficult, so I looked at the results of previous years.
From 2005 to 2013, there have been 823 overtime drives. I looked at only the first drives of each overtime.
Scoring - 72%
TD - 44%
FG - 28%
Turnover - 14%
So Gibbons kick is 65% vs 72% playing normally. The chances are much closer than I thought they would be. Figure in that our offense was playing badly, Devin is turnover prone, and Gibbons is an above average kicker - the correct decision might have been the kick.
(A game ending pick 6 has only happened twice in the last 7 years - less than .5%. The games were Pitt vs Ohio 2005 and Vandy vs Tennessee 2011)
|26 weeks 16 hours ago||For an average college||
For an average college kicker, missing the both the 4th quarter + 1st OT FG is ~18%. Seriously, even with all that happened in this game, I think we win it 9 times out of 10.
I won't extrapolate Gibbons stats because of low sample sizes, but he is 6/11 from 40+ over the last 2 years (4/9 before this game).
Predicted points from from an average kicker during this game was 14.25, and Gibbons scored 12. He definitely performed below average, but not by much.
|26 weeks 17 hours ago||Risk can be quantified. "a FG||
Risk can be quantified. "a FG wins it" - College kickers can hit a 40 yarder ~65% of the time. Why throw the ball? Because we shouldn't be so afraid to throw the ball that we accept a 35% chance at 0 points.
Sure, Gardner is a turnover machine - 7% of his throws get picked off. So give him some easy reads, get away from a run game that hasn't worked all night (does the reason really matter?) and go for the win. Or at the very least give poor Gibbons a better at the kick.
|26 weeks 19 hours ago||This is a great||
This is a great series.
Borges isn't an idiot. He's been doing this for a long time. There's a lot of nuances to his playcalling, the things he did made sense at the time, there's a lot of logic to his decisions. He has a complete lack of understanding of statistics, though.
Running into a stacked box where you have 6 blockers for 6 defenders can be successful. You can call it "putting the players in a position to be succesful" . But it doesn't work out that way.
It only takes one unblocked man to stop one of these running plays at the line. Say your OLine is making blocks 90% of the time - your plays are still only 50% effective. Look at Saturday's game, and it's obvious that our Oline was much worse than 90%. And what's the upside? Perfect blocking gets us 5 yards. Add in underclassmen tight ends that can't block anything + losing our best player, then you have what happened Saturday - perfect blocking happens hardly ever, most runs get stopped at the line. Borges is calling plays like he expects the offensive line to execute - all of Borges's calls make sense if the offensive line executes - and it's absurd to think that the offensive line will execute. That's how you get 1 ypc on playcalling that "makes sense".
So get rid of useless tight ends, spread the field so you have to execute fewer blocks to be successful. You can say that's not Borges's philosophy - well I hate Borges's philosophy. Our super-manball Carr days averaged 4.5 ypc at best - that's the ceiling here. There's no reason for a team as talented as Michigan to settle for that.
Now, onto the overtime playcalling. You can say Borges was being "conservative". He wasn't. He was afraid to take a risk. Your goal in that situation is to maximize your chance of winning. Running three straight plays into a stacked box and settling for a 40 yard field goal = 65% chance of winning* in OT1. Throw a fade to Funchess, run something to the edge, have Gardner run it - ANYTHING but settling for 0 yards gained. Sure, having Gardner pass has a 10% chance of being picked off, but you're ALREADY at a 35% chance of scoring 0 points if you decide to play "conservative".
*(everyone that says Gibbons should have made that kick is wrong. It doesn't matter how many he kicked in a row, he's still a college kicker. anything else is gambler's fallacy bullshit).
|1 year 25 weeks ago||34-14 Michigan 198 rushing||
198 rushing yards
|1 year 26 weeks ago||34-13 michigan||
|2 years 19 weeks ago||If Georgia beat LSU, it would||
If Georgia beat LSU, it would still be LSU-Bama in the NC game, then Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
|2 years 22 weeks ago||Explain yourself. Data goes||
Explain yourself. Data goes in, rankings come out. Where is the bias?
|2 years 23 weeks ago||853||
|2 years 50 weeks ago||At least I have chicken||
At least I have chicken
|3 years 13 weeks ago||For me it was the entire 2007||
For me it was the entire 2007 season. Going 8-4 with half your offense nfl-bound upper classmen is just horrible. We're never going to have more talent than that; that was the ceiling of our program under Lloyd and his refusal to do anything except run left. He took the chains off the offense against Florida and great things happened. It was depressing.
Usc and bama are going to be more talented. That's just the way recruiting goes. Yes, michigan can be successful with a vanilla pro-style offense. But not against more talented teams, not in bowls, and not against osu. If that's ok with you, then we should have kept Lloyd, and Hoke was a good hire. I really hope I'm wrong here, but I'm afraid that I'm not.
|3 years 13 weeks ago||Let's not take cheap shots at||
Let's not take cheap shots at Drew Sharp's mom. She's been so good to us all...
|3 years 15 weeks ago||Thanks Dave Brandon! No,||
Thanks Dave Brandon!
No, wait, you're just some whiney fan. Jesus, can we wait a week, then cheer for whoever is at the helm next year?
|3 years 15 weeks ago||421||
|3 years 15 weeks ago||One more week.||
Just one more week.
|3 years 15 weeks ago||You're looking at it all||
You're looking at it all wrong.
See the Big 12 is all: "Hey man, look at all my 12 teams." And we're all: "WTF is this, that is NOT 12 teams. Counting Baylor and Iowa State that's hardly even 10."
Then the B1G is all: "Yeah we're doin all right, hangin out with 10 teams." Then when they're not looking it's BAM 12 TEAMS IN THE FACE.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||16th in Defense??||
Beilein for DC!
|3 years 17 weeks ago||I wouldn't worry too much||
I wouldn't worry too much about it. I got a deferment letter, then an acceptance letter a week later.
|3 years 18 weeks ago||Objection!||
Asked and answered.
|3 years 18 weeks ago||I'm glad you took time to||
I'm glad you took time to post this fresh new take on the situation.
|3 years 19 weeks ago||Wiscy already put up||
Wiscy already put up 31 on the best defense they'll face this year.
The best offense that TCU saw (SDSU!) put up 35. I like wiscy in this game.
|3 years 19 weeks ago||Mmmmm, steaks.....||
|3 years 19 weeks ago||posted from iPhone||
Did you have to ruin the moment?
|3 years 19 weeks ago||dupe||
|3 years 19 weeks ago||We'd just move him to guard||
We'd just move him to guard anyway.