I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
- Member for
- 2 years 44 weeks
|2 years 20 weeks ago||I expect Michigan's '11 D to be in the top 13-ish%||
of D's that jumped 50+ spots because Michigan has everything needed, i.e.,
1. elite D coaching
2. lots of returning starters
3. lots of *experienced* returning starters
4. above average 4-year recruiting
IMO teams with 1-4 are set up for maximal progress. In '11 I expect Michigan's D to be somewhere around 30; and then 15-ish in '12.
btw, great read. enjoyed it.
|2 years 22 weeks ago||Cheer up Michigan fans!||
I expect your Defense to be between around #30 next year. And here's why--it's an argument by analogy:
In 2009 FSU was #79 Defensive S&P (DS&P) http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef2009
In 2010 we were #32 in DS&P http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef
Here's what changed between 2009 and 2010:
1. A new, good OC who was implemented a conservative, simple scheme that the players could handle.
2. 2009 was a historically bad year (worst year in 20+ seasons).
3. In 2010 FSU returned 8 D starters, but only 2 were seniors (in 2010).
Sound familiar? In 2010 you were #86 DS&P, which is slightly worse than FSU in 2009. In 2011 your D will be coached by a new, good DC who will run a back-to-basics D that your D players can handle. You return more starters in 2011 than FSU did in 2010 *but* you also return more experienced starters than FSU's. Returning starters is only 1 piece of the puzzle for projecting DS&P--also important is what class (Fr, So, Jr, Sr) these returning starters are.
FSU's progression from 2009-2010 and the similarities to Michigan's transition from 2010 to 2011 make me believe that Michigan's D will be somewhere around #30 DS&P.
|2 years 44 weeks ago||Well said||
FSU finished with the best record in 5 years; beat both their in-state rivals for the first time in 11 years by the greatest margin of victory ever; and the bowl win over a favored SCAR was important.
Now, your comment (about poor W/L record & good recruiting) does apply to FSU classes before 2011, e.g., 2010, etc.