I wanted to draft him for my fantasy league but he went several rounds before he should have. That's what happens when you have a league with your college friends who all went to U of M...
I'm happy he is getting a shot and hope he makes the most of his opportunity.
Given the B1G bowl tie-ins only the Little Caesar's bowl would be a neutral/home game. Everything else is squarely in the other conferences territory (Rose in CA, Capital/etc. in FL, Dallas in TX...). That fact plus the unfavorable matchups (plus the conference ineptitude) have lead to some bad bowl records in recent years.
I feel like this game reminds me of Akron in so many ways:
1. 28-24 sounds about right (maybe 24-20), it will be close
2. Sadly, Devin gives them a 7 point gift just when the game looks to be going Michigan's way
3. State has a chance to win it late but their O can't pull it off and the D holds
4. I will question why the O goes MANBALL for large stretches of the game... only to open it up for 3-4 drives and get scores... then go back to MANBALL
On 4th down with a chance to end the game the D is going to pin their ears back at the first sign of pass. Let them come and throw it right over their heads to a RB with blockers.
Maybe I play too much NCAA / have the Indiana game burned into my memory, but 5 minutes is plenty of time if the play doesn't work and I need 2 scores.
At this point of the season I really don't care much about the ranking. Win games and the rest will fall into place.
We have the ability to beat anyone on our schedule - we also have the ability to lose to anyone on our schedule. We control our own destiny so it comes down to how we play week in and week out.
I know this doesn't fully answer your question, but it is a 0.1% chance that a subset of scenario 1 happens. If Michigan wins out and both MSU and Neb drop an additional game then we win the division outright - 1 in 1000 accoring to the OP.
Given 75%-95% probabilities of winning each of their remaining games outside of Michigan that puts MSU and Neb as a ~50-50 shot to drop 1 game outside of Michigan. If they both lose in 0.1% of scenarios that means that 1 or neither lose in 0.3% of scenarios. I would guess that scenario 1 has about a 0.5% chance of happening, but it is hard to tell without knowing the projected win probabilities for each game.
I'm surprised that it is so low; however, it looks like both MSU and Neb have fairly easy schedules remaining other than the game against us.
Similar story with Guinness in Ireland. Much better there and really in most of Europe than it is in the US. Don't know if it is freshness or just different brew sites. I would think Guinness and Heineken have other facilities that brew for the US.
I'm thinking of the 2009 team. While Michigan won thanks to Tate Forcier, Tate/Floyd had 246 yards and 3 TDs in the game. They accounted for nearly 2300 yards and 24 TDs in 2009. They also accounted for nearly 2300 yards and 17 TDs in 2008...
That very last paragraph sticks out for me. That Floyd/Tate passing attack was nearly impossible to stop. Given Gardner's stat lines when he has time vs. not that could really be something.
Gardner can still pass for 400 yards; all he needs is 2 200 yard receivers... or 1 300 yard cloaking-receiver and 1 100 yard mega-receiver.
Funchess exceeded my expectations. I felt like I was pretty high on him to start the season, but wasn't expecting back-to-back 100+ yards games. He already has over double his receiving yards from last season (492 vs. 234). His emergence makes it tough for Ds to key only on Gallon and opens up the passing game.
Compared to the past few years this schedule is a step up: Hawaii or AFU are probably the easiest games on that list (things could change in the next 5 years). No Delaware St or UMass (though they are now FBS) at least.
This scheduling change is likely due to the shift from the BCS to the playoff. At least the powers that be recognized the change and made some schedule adjustments.
The fact that MSU's O is ranked the same as PSU's scares me a lot. If MSU puts up 34 in regulation like PSU did then we would definitely lose. I don't see our O scoring more than 24-28 on MSU.
Any draw plays or shotgun runs we run are always welcome. Fitz excels in space so spreading the D out and giving him those opportunities can translate to success.
I feel that MSU will stack the box even if we try to spread them out though. That would leave Funchess and Gallon in 1-on-1s; they need to win those battles as much as the o-line needs to win their 1-on-1s.
I remember attending Michigan Tech vs. GVSU at the Big House almost 10 years ago. If I remember correctly, my ticket was only $5 for that. My friends and I decided to get decked out in black and yellow for Tech and had a blast even tho they ended up losing.
This time I know my rooting interests will be set long before kickoff. I despise wearing wearing anything but Maize & Blue (especially red of green) on Saturdays, but I can make an exception for The Rock.
I think it is funny that after all the SEC hype for two consecutive years A&M and Mizzou "stun" the conference and win games they're not supposed to. Maybe the Big 12 was really the best conference 3 years ago...
I know, it is tough to argue with the championships. I still feel like the SEC gets too much hype. I can't wait for the playoffs to come next year. It'll be great to give more teams the chance to play.
I think we make it to the B1G Championship Game since the Legends is a weak division. I don't know if we have what it takes to win that and make the Rose Bowl...
Their O isn't very good but they have a stout D. Dantonio puts a lot of focus on the MI game, hopefully these next two weeks give us time to put some wrinkles in.
Looking at the Michigan - Penn St. - Indiana trio it is interesting to see how some times the best O can get the job done and other times the D is required to carry the team.
Home field is a big advantage in college football as well - probably a bigger deal in fairly even matchups.
That's how I read it. Akron outperformed their season avg. against us, but everyone else was below average.
Plus the D generally plays a bend-don't-break style. They may give up some yards here and there but they've been very good at keeping people out of the endzone. They still haven't given up a rushing TD on the season, I don't know how many other teams can say that...
Funchess on the outside was a great move. He has great speed for his size and creates a huge mismatch on jump balls.
The o-line looked like it gelled a lot better. Pass protection was good and as you noted the YPC was better than it had been considering Devin didn't break a few big ones like in past weeks. Minny's best player is the DT, he was pretty much neutralized by the interior line all day.
While it may be more "fair" to charge students the same prices as everyone else, it would cause a rift in the fan base. Many students have the willingness to pay for tickets but not the ability as they are also covering student loans and many other costs associated with attending U of M. U of M would risk isolating their future fanbase by raising prices. People get hooked of MI football when they attend games and see what it is like, if they don't attand games at school they will be less likely to attend games later on.
The defense is good and hopefully improves with Jake Ryan's return along with young players getting more PT.
The offense can be good as long as they avoid turnovers. One stat I was amazed by during the UConn game: for the however many games Devin was starter he has more turnovers than any other player, during that same stretch only Manziel accounted for more TDs. Huge upside but also a big risk if Devin can't shake the TOs.
The gameplan was a lot more favorable for Devin in the second half. Shorter passes, more runs - things to get his confidence back. It did seem to help and I'm am quite thankful for that. Hopefully he can keep some positive momentum going for here on out. The bye week came at a very good time.
Fitz had some great plays (the run after the option pitch) and plenty of plays he could have done a little better. Sometimes taking the 2-3 yards and living to fight another day is the best option. Don't base your opinion purely off of the stat line.
When the Lions played the Vikings week 1, Peterson had an ~80 yard td run but finished with only ~90 yards on the day. The poor rest of the game AP had contributed to the Lion's winning, even if his total stat line wasn't bad.
I get that same feeling too. I'd love to see some data to show if that is really the case or if there is some mental bias because it makes my blood boil.
Not only was Morgan's int an awesome play, it came at a very critical time. That is two weeks in a row the D got a huge pick when they needed to provide a spark. Now if only we didn't have 4 turnovers before then...
I was lucky enough to have my college years match Denards. While I only met him a few times (very briefly at that) he was always so happy and fun to be around. He is the most electric player I can remember watching, anytime the ball is in his hands he has the chance to break a long one. I'm gonna miss him in a Michigan jersey but wish him the best in the NFL.
I think he meant the most significant play of Terrance Robinson's career.
Denard had so many significant plays as demonstrated by the GIFs you really can't pick just one. His unbelievable comebacks against ND and finally beating OSU would probably be at the top for me.
Live it definitely looked weird from the angle they showed on TV. Seeing the replay it was very obvious he kneeled and put the ball down, that angle was the same one the back umpire had of the play. The refs whistled the play dead when he put the ball down. After the whistles, 3 ASU players jumped on the ball and proceeded to sit on it for several seconds. That is the definition of a delay of game. The only thing Wisconsin could have done was get to the line with 7 seconds, not 3 to have a better case to the refs. It was a blown call.
I could see #98 being awarded to the best/most important/captain of the offense. I'd love for it to get used every few years only when we have a dynamic playmaker worthy of wearing it. I think Devin is a great choice for it; even if he throws picks he can put the ball in the endzone. If it gets used every year then it loses some of the mystique.
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I wanted to draft him for my fantasy league but he went several rounds before he should have. That's what happens when you have a league with your college friends who all went to U of M...
I'm happy he is getting a shot and hope he makes the most of his opportunity.
Given the B1G bowl tie-ins only the Little Caesar's bowl would be a neutral/home game. Everything else is squarely in the other conferences territory (Rose in CA, Capital/etc. in FL, Dallas in TX...). That fact plus the unfavorable matchups (plus the conference ineptitude) have lead to some bad bowl records in recent years.
Thank you for diving into the numbers as usual.
Seems like on D we want to make State nickle and dime down the field and force them into 3rd downs - which plays well with what we have been doing.
On O we need to take some shots and hope for the big play. Does anyone know how many big plays the State D has given up on the season?
I feel like this game reminds me of Akron in so many ways:
1. 28-24 sounds about right (maybe 24-20), it will be close
2. Sadly, Devin gives them a 7 point gift just when the game looks to be going Michigan's way
3. State has a chance to win it late but their O can't pull it off and the D holds
4. I will question why the O goes MANBALL for large stretches of the game... only to open it up for 3-4 drives and get scores... then go back to MANBALL
Screen pass.
On 4th down with a chance to end the game the D is going to pin their ears back at the first sign of pass. Let them come and throw it right over their heads to a RB with blockers.
Maybe I play too much NCAA / have the Indiana game burned into my memory, but 5 minutes is plenty of time if the play doesn't work and I need 2 scores.
At this point of the season I really don't care much about the ranking. Win games and the rest will fall into place.
We have the ability to beat anyone on our schedule - we also have the ability to lose to anyone on our schedule. We control our own destiny so it comes down to how we play week in and week out.
I know this doesn't fully answer your question, but it is a 0.1% chance that a subset of scenario 1 happens. If Michigan wins out and both MSU and Neb drop an additional game then we win the division outright - 1 in 1000 accoring to the OP.
Given 75%-95% probabilities of winning each of their remaining games outside of Michigan that puts MSU and Neb as a ~50-50 shot to drop 1 game outside of Michigan. If they both lose in 0.1% of scenarios that means that 1 or neither lose in 0.3% of scenarios. I would guess that scenario 1 has about a 0.5% chance of happening, but it is hard to tell without knowing the projected win probabilities for each game.
I'm surprised that it is so low; however, it looks like both MSU and Neb have fairly easy schedules remaining other than the game against us.
Of course I'm doing work... Don't you see the pretty charts I'm looking at!
I just tried a pumpkin ale from Kennebunkport Brewing Co that had a great spice/pumpkin flavor. Almost like liquid pie!
Don't know much else about KBC; the bottle says they're from Maine. I was able to get it on the west coast at a Trader Joes.
Similar story with Guinness in Ireland. Much better there and really in most of Europe than it is in the US. Don't know if it is freshness or just different brew sites. I would think Guinness and Heineken have other facilities that brew for the US.
I'm thinking of the 2009 team. While Michigan won thanks to Tate Forcier, Tate/Floyd had 246 yards and 3 TDs in the game. They accounted for nearly 2300 yards and 24 TDs in 2009. They also accounted for nearly 2300 yards and 17 TDs in 2008...
They had some impressive stat lines in the O:
http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=292550130
http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/87/year/2009/notre-…
http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/87/year/2008/notre-…
That very last paragraph sticks out for me. That Floyd/Tate passing attack was nearly impossible to stop. Given Gardner's stat lines when he has time vs. not that could really be something.
Gardner can still pass for 400 yards; all he needs is 2 200 yard receivers... or 1 300 yard cloaking-receiver and 1 100 yard mega-receiver.
So here is a sad kitten
Funchess exceeded my expectations. I felt like I was pretty high on him to start the season, but wasn't expecting back-to-back 100+ yards games. He already has over double his receiving yards from last season (492 vs. 234). His emergence makes it tough for Ds to key only on Gallon and opens up the passing game.
Compared to the past few years this schedule is a step up: Hawaii or AFU are probably the easiest games on that list (things could change in the next 5 years). No Delaware St or UMass (though they are now FBS) at least.
This scheduling change is likely due to the shift from the BCS to the playoff. At least the powers that be recognized the change and made some schedule adjustments.
The fact that MSU's O is ranked the same as PSU's scares me a lot. If MSU puts up 34 in regulation like PSU did then we would definitely lose. I don't see our O scoring more than 24-28 on MSU.
Any draw plays or shotgun runs we run are always welcome. Fitz excels in space so spreading the D out and giving him those opportunities can translate to success.
I feel that MSU will stack the box even if we try to spread them out though. That would leave Funchess and Gallon in 1-on-1s; they need to win those battles as much as the o-line needs to win their 1-on-1s.
3:30 is much nicer for the west coast constituent.
I'm sure my sleep schedule was one of the major factors in determining kickoff time.
In other news...
The grass is green today.
I remember attending Michigan Tech vs. GVSU at the Big House almost 10 years ago. If I remember correctly, my ticket was only $5 for that. My friends and I decided to get decked out in black and yellow for Tech and had a blast even tho they ended up losing.
This time I know my rooting interests will be set long before kickoff. I despise wearing wearing anything but Maize & Blue (especially red of green) on Saturdays, but I can make an exception for The Rock.
I think it is funny that after all the SEC hype for two consecutive years A&M and Mizzou "stun" the conference and win games they're not supposed to. Maybe the Big 12 was really the best conference 3 years ago...
I know, it is tough to argue with the championships. I still feel like the SEC gets too much hype. I can't wait for the playoffs to come next year. It'll be great to give more teams the chance to play.
I think we make it to the B1G Championship Game since the Legends is a weak division. I don't know if we have what it takes to win that and make the Rose Bowl...
Their O isn't very good but they have a stout D. Dantonio puts a lot of focus on the MI game, hopefully these next two weeks give us time to put some wrinkles in.
Looking at the Michigan - Penn St. - Indiana trio it is interesting to see how some times the best O can get the job done and other times the D is required to carry the team.
Home field is a big advantage in college football as well - probably a bigger deal in fairly even matchups.
That's how I read it. Akron outperformed their season avg. against us, but everyone else was below average.
Plus the D generally plays a bend-don't-break style. They may give up some yards here and there but they've been very good at keeping people out of the endzone. They still haven't given up a rushing TD on the season, I don't know how many other teams can say that...
Funchess on the outside was a great move. He has great speed for his size and creates a huge mismatch on jump balls.
The o-line looked like it gelled a lot better. Pass protection was good and as you noted the YPC was better than it had been considering Devin didn't break a few big ones like in past weeks. Minny's best player is the DT, he was pretty much neutralized by the interior line all day.
While it may be more "fair" to charge students the same prices as everyone else, it would cause a rift in the fan base. Many students have the willingness to pay for tickets but not the ability as they are also covering student loans and many other costs associated with attending U of M. U of M would risk isolating their future fanbase by raising prices. People get hooked of MI football when they attend games and see what it is like, if they don't attand games at school they will be less likely to attend games later on.
Length like that really plays well in Beilein's system. I'm looking forward to some great years of MI hoops to come!
Go Blue!
That was my exact reaction.
Maybe Illinois beating Cincy or OSU/NW over Cal?
There is always Wisconsion beating ASU on the road... too soon?
The B1G turned in another pretty weak nonconference.
The defense is good and hopefully improves with Jake Ryan's return along with young players getting more PT.
The offense can be good as long as they avoid turnovers. One stat I was amazed by during the UConn game: for the however many games Devin was starter he has more turnovers than any other player, during that same stretch only Manziel accounted for more TDs. Huge upside but also a big risk if Devin can't shake the TOs.
The gameplan was a lot more favorable for Devin in the second half. Shorter passes, more runs - things to get his confidence back. It did seem to help and I'm am quite thankful for that. Hopefully he can keep some positive momentum going for here on out. The bye week came at a very good time.
Congrats to Juwan!
That is awesome to hear. He always seems like a hard worker and a genuine great guy.
Also, having Michigan ties at coaching spots around the league can't hurt recruiting!
I expect this to be a very high scoring and exicting game. Both teams have top notch offenses and less dominant defenses. Lets see some points!
What is Light Urple?
That and sad panda gifs have been my go to these past two weeks...
Oh UT fans, they really topped it this week. Content of comments aside, "their" are some who skipped grammer lessons apparently.
Fitz had some great plays (the run after the option pitch) and plenty of plays he could have done a little better. Sometimes taking the 2-3 yards and living to fight another day is the best option. Don't base your opinion purely off of the stat line.
When the Lions played the Vikings week 1, Peterson had an ~80 yard td run but finished with only ~90 yards on the day. The poor rest of the game AP had contributed to the Lion's winning, even if his total stat line wasn't bad.
I get that same feeling too. I'd love to see some data to show if that is really the case or if there is some mental bias because it makes my blood boil.
Not only was Morgan's int an awesome play, it came at a very critical time. That is two weeks in a row the D got a huge pick when they needed to provide a spark. Now if only we didn't have 4 turnovers before then...
That's awsome. My roommate was on the quizbowl team. The best we ever did was compete at Charley's... Always happy when a UofM alum succeeds!
Very nicely done. Not only is it an entertaining strip it's lessons are scarily accurate.
Michigan: 35
UConn: 9
I don't think has been taken...
I was lucky enough to have my college years match Denards. While I only met him a few times (very briefly at that) he was always so happy and fun to be around. He is the most electric player I can remember watching, anytime the ball is in his hands he has the chance to break a long one. I'm gonna miss him in a Michigan jersey but wish him the best in the NFL.
I think he meant the most significant play of Terrance Robinson's career.
Denard had so many significant plays as demonstrated by the GIFs you really can't pick just one. His unbelievable comebacks against ND and finally beating OSU would probably be at the top for me.
After this past week the team is focused and on point. 38-10 with a lot of Shane Morris in the 4th quarter.
Live it definitely looked weird from the angle they showed on TV. Seeing the replay it was very obvious he kneeled and put the ball down, that angle was the same one the back umpire had of the play. The refs whistled the play dead when he put the ball down. After the whistles, 3 ASU players jumped on the ball and proceeded to sit on it for several seconds. That is the definition of a delay of game. The only thing Wisconsin could have done was get to the line with 7 seconds, not 3 to have a better case to the refs. It was a blown call.
I could see #98 being awarded to the best/most important/captain of the offense. I'd love for it to get used every few years only when we have a dynamic playmaker worthy of wearing it. I think Devin is a great choice for it; even if he throws picks he can put the ball in the endzone. If it gets used every year then it loses some of the mystique.
Both have to represent Huron High Scool with the #17. Yea homegrown boys!