Tennessee is not recruiting well just because they got 18 dudes
- Member for
- 3 years 10 weeks
- View recent blog entries
|2 years 33 weeks ago||Denard!||
I wanted to draft him for my fantasy league but he went several rounds before he should have. That's what happens when you have a league with your college friends who all went to U of M...
I'm happy he is getting a shot and hope he makes the most of his opportunity.
|2 years 33 weeks ago||B1G Bowl Tie-Ins||
Given the B1G bowl tie-ins only the Little Caesar's bowl would be a neutral/home game. Everything else is squarely in the other conferences territory (Rose in CA, Capital/etc. in FL, Dallas in TX...). That fact plus the unfavorable matchups (plus the conference ineptitude) have lead to some bad bowl records in recent years.
|2 years 34 weeks ago||Great Post!||
Thank you for diving into the numbers as usual.
Seems like on D we want to make State nickle and dime down the field and force them into 3rd downs - which plays well with what we have been doing.
On O we need to take some shots and hope for the big play. Does anyone know how many big plays the State D has given up on the season?
|2 years 34 weeks ago||I feel like this game reminds||
I feel like this game reminds me of Akron in so many ways:
1. 28-24 sounds about right (maybe 24-20), it will be close
2. Sadly, Devin gives them a 7 point gift just when the game looks to be going Michigan's way
3. State has a chance to win it late but their O can't pull it off and the D holds
4. I will question why the O goes MANBALL for large stretches of the game... only to open it up for 3-4 drives and get scores... then go back to MANBALL
|2 years 34 weeks ago||Screen pass||
On 4th down with a chance to end the game the D is going to pin their ears back at the first sign of pass. Let them come and throw it right over their heads to a RB with blockers.
Maybe I play too much NCAA / have the Indiana game burned into my memory, but 5 minutes is plenty of time if the play doesn't work and I need 2 scores.
|2 years 34 weeks ago||At this point of the season I||
At this point of the season I really don't care much about the ranking. Win games and the rest will fall into place.
We have the ability to beat anyone on our schedule - we also have the ability to lose to anyone on our schedule. We control our own destiny so it comes down to how we play week in and week out.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Partial Answer||
I know this doesn't fully answer your question, but it is a 0.1% chance that a subset of scenario 1 happens. If Michigan wins out and both MSU and Neb drop an additional game then we win the division outright - 1 in 1000 accoring to the OP.
Given 75%-95% probabilities of winning each of their remaining games outside of Michigan that puts MSU and Neb as a ~50-50 shot to drop 1 game outside of Michigan. If they both lose in 0.1% of scenarios that means that 1 or neither lose in 0.3% of scenarios. I would guess that scenario 1 has about a 0.5% chance of happening, but it is hard to tell without knowing the projected win probabilities for each game.
I'm surprised that it is so low; however, it looks like both MSU and Neb have fairly easy schedules remaining other than the game against us.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Of course I'm doing work...||
Of course I'm doing work... Don't you see the pretty charts I'm looking at!
|2 years 35 weeks ago||I just tried a pumpkin ale||
I just tried a pumpkin ale from Kennebunkport Brewing Co that had a great spice/pumpkin flavor. Almost like liquid pie!
Don't know much else about KBC; the bottle says they're from Maine. I was able to get it on the west coast at a Trader Joes.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Similar story with Guinness||
Similar story with Guinness in Ireland. Much better there and really in most of Europe than it is in the US. Don't know if it is freshness or just different brew sites. I would think Guinness and Heineken have other facilities that brew for the US.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||2009||
I'm thinking of the 2009 team. While Michigan won thanks to Tate Forcier, Tate/Floyd had 246 yards and 3 TDs in the game. They accounted for nearly 2300 yards and 24 TDs in 2009. They also accounted for nearly 2300 yards and 17 TDs in 2008...
They had some impressive stat lines in the O:
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Agreed. They should do that.||
That very last paragraph sticks out for me. That Floyd/Tate passing attack was nearly impossible to stop. Given Gardner's stat lines when he has time vs. not that could really be something.
Gardner can still pass for 400 yards; all he needs is 2 200 yard receivers... or 1 300 yard cloaking-receiver and 1 100 yard mega-receiver.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Double Post||
So here is a sad kitten
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Funchess exceeded my||
Funchess exceeded my expectations. I felt like I was pretty high on him to start the season, but wasn't expecting back-to-back 100+ yards games. He already has over double his receiving yards from last season (492 vs. 234). His emergence makes it tough for Ds to key only on Gallon and opens up the passing game.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Compared to the past few||
Compared to the past few years this schedule is a step up: Hawaii or AFU are probably the easiest games on that list (things could change in the next 5 years). No Delaware St or UMass (though they are now FBS) at least.
This scheduling change is likely due to the shift from the BCS to the playoff. At least the powers that be recognized the change and made some schedule adjustments.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||The fact that MSU's O is||
The fact that MSU's O is ranked the same as PSU's scares me a lot. If MSU puts up 34 in regulation like PSU did then we would definitely lose. I don't see our O scoring more than 24-28 on MSU.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Any draw plays or shotgun||
Any draw plays or shotgun runs we run are always welcome. Fitz excels in space so spreading the D out and giving him those opportunities can translate to success.
I feel that MSU will stack the box even if we try to spread them out though. That would leave Funchess and Gallon in 1-on-1s; they need to win those battles as much as the o-line needs to win their 1-on-1s.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||California Wolverines Approve!||
3:30 is much nicer for the west coast constituent.
I'm sure my sleep schedule was one of the major factors in determining kickoff time.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||In other news||
In other news...
The grass is green today.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||They changed the definition||
They changed the definition of literally to also mean figuratively or virtually... You have to be care how you use it now or my head might literally asplode.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||I remember attending Michigan||
I remember attending Michigan Tech vs. GVSU at the Big House almost 10 years ago. If I remember correctly, my ticket was only $5 for that. My friends and I decided to get decked out in black and yellow for Tech and had a blast even tho they ended up losing.
This time I know my rooting interests will be set long before kickoff. I despise wearing wearing anything but Maize & Blue (especially red of green) on Saturdays, but I can make an exception for The Rock.
|2 years 35 weeks ago||I think it is funny that||
I think it is funny that after all the SEC hype for two consecutive years A&M and Mizzou "stun" the conference and win games they're not supposed to. Maybe the Big 12 was really the best conference 3 years ago...
I know, it is tough to argue with the championships. I still feel like the SEC gets too much hype. I can't wait for the playoffs to come next year. It'll be great to give more teams the chance to play.
|2 years 36 weeks ago||B1G CG||
I think we make it to the B1G Championship Game since the Legends is a weak division. I don't know if we have what it takes to win that and make the Rose Bowl...
|2 years 36 weeks ago||Most worried about MSU||
Their O isn't very good but they have a stout D. Dantonio puts a lot of focus on the MI game, hopefully these next two weeks give us time to put some wrinkles in.
|2 years 36 weeks ago||Fantastic.||
|2 years 36 weeks ago||Mich-PSU-IU||
Looking at the Michigan - Penn St. - Indiana trio it is interesting to see how some times the best O can get the job done and other times the D is required to carry the team.
Home field is a big advantage in college football as well - probably a bigger deal in fairly even matchups.
|2 years 37 weeks ago||That's how I read it. Akron||
That's how I read it. Akron outperformed their season avg. against us, but everyone else was below average.
Plus the D generally plays a bend-don't-break style. They may give up some yards here and there but they've been very good at keeping people out of the endzone. They still haven't given up a rushing TD on the season, I don't know how many other teams can say that...
|2 years 37 weeks ago||Funchess, O-Line||
Funchess on the outside was a great move. He has great speed for his size and creates a huge mismatch on jump balls.
The o-line looked like it gelled a lot better. Pass protection was good and as you noted the YPC was better than it had been considering Devin didn't break a few big ones like in past weeks. Minny's best player is the DT, he was pretty much neutralized by the interior line all day.
|2 years 37 weeks ago||While it may be more "fair"||
While it may be more "fair" to charge students the same prices as everyone else, it would cause a rift in the fan base. Many students have the willingness to pay for tickets but not the ability as they are also covering student loans and many other costs associated with attending U of M. U of M would risk isolating their future fanbase by raising prices. People get hooked of MI football when they attend games and see what it is like, if they don't attand games at school they will be less likely to attend games later on.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||Welcome Kam!||
Length like that really plays well in Beilein's system. I'm looking forward to some great years of MI hoops to come!