Daniel L

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3 years 46 weeks

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3 years 15 weeks ago You could have just, you

You could have just, you know, not read it. No one is forcing you to be here and read anything. We all choose to. And if you don't like it, you can just read the parts you like. Jesus, it's not like it's a newspaper you pay for now is it? It's a blog, read what you want, when you want. Is this such a difficult concept?
3 years 17 weeks ago This should definitely be a

This should definitely be a rule in all sports for applied cheap shots.
3 years 44 weeks ago Argh The picture is like 2 years old isn't it?  So it was when Tate was like 16.
3 years 44 weeks ago Yes but All teams have homer wagering.  In addition, if a line was pumped by Michigan homers away from what is a really expected then money from professionals would likely come into play to equalize the lines.  Vegas definitely wants to spur betting, but it wants to spur betting on BOTH SIDES of the line.  And yes, while fanbases can be more irrational in certain cases and cause line movement (UM and ND are good examples because of their large followings and money'ed alumni base) the overall effect would be very small (maybe a point on a per game spread, half a game on a win expectancy).  The most extreme example of this was the -3 Michigan/ND spread last fall.  There was no possible way the teams were that close based on watching them play. I believe it opened at -3 and closed at -9.5 or something.  It's pretty rare Vegas gets an opening line that wrong in lieu of something big happening in the interim.
3 years 44 weeks ago Wins vs Chance to win MNC

There's actually a big difference between expected wins and chance to win the MNC.  You have to look at the distributions under them.  Looking at a group of games for Michigan (PSU/Wisconsin/Illinois) if Michigan can win 1, then they can likely win them all, and only OSU would be a large threat.  If Michigan loses to one of those teams, they are likely to lose to all 3.

Based on the Vegas odds and win expectancies, I'd wager it's highly likely Michigan's distribution curve has "mini-peaks" around 5 win and 11 wins.  This is not the say the odds or 5 wins are the same as the odds of 11, but that Michigan is more likely to win 11 than 10, or 5 than 6/7 than a normal distribution would suggest.

In normal words, if I have a 10% chance to win $15, and a 90% chance to win $5, my expected return is $6.  If I have a 50% chance to win $5 and a 50% chance to win $7 my expected return is also $6.  However, it's pretty clear that the upside is higher in the first set of outcomes.

I wouldn't call them suckers bets Bryan.  It's in Vegas' best interest to set lines/expectencies right on the dot.  They want the same amound of money on both sides of the deal (in the case of odds to win MNC they want money according to the odds).  Everything in Vegas is set to give the house a very small take from a ton of transactions.  In aggregate, you're not really betting against the house in sports betting, you're betting against the people on the other side of the line, and Vegas takes a 1-2% skim for enabling the transaction.

3 years 44 weeks ago I think This needs more ads IMO. State Farm should just get a huge ass graphic on my screen. Unreal how many ads I see right now.
3 years 44 weeks ago Whoaaa, I can't believe I Whoaaa, I can't believe I spelled it like that.  I'll edit my post.
3 years 44 weeks ago Unreal Joe Morgan, Steve Phillips, Chris Berman, and Rick Reilly in the same booth. FJM is going to the biggest field day ever with this.
3 years 44 weeks ago Oh duh Yeah, you win.
3 years 44 weeks ago Absolutely Bill Martin never saw these jerseys once.  At all.  Some lackey from the AD just drew them with crayon on a napkin and gave them to Adidas.  Unfortuanately for all of us, after he finished drawing the upper shoulder stripes he had flattened the point on his Crayola, which is the reason the lower stripes are so wide.  Crayola is the enemy here, not Adidas.
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