Wilson and Wagner Invited to NBA Combine (Walton as Alternate)
The NBA Combine invites went out today. 60 players were invited, including DJ Wilson and Moe Wagner. Derrick Walton is listed as one of the 5 alternates. I guess based on the fact that Ball and other high picks might not attend, Derrick has a good chance of getting in. Link Below.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19273805/nba-invites-more-60-players…
April 30th, 2017 at 12:00 AM ^
April 30th, 2017 at 12:19 AM ^
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April 30th, 2017 at 12:20 AM ^
April 30th, 2017 at 12:41 AM ^
Just, like, generally. Breathing in, breathing out, maintaining my normal heart rate. Not going through tunnels, not being around farts, not doing any dares with a seven-year old.
April 30th, 2017 at 12:28 AM ^
I think Mo will be back. Im pretty damn nervous about Wilson though.
April 30th, 2017 at 12:48 AM ^
I think both would definitely be better served by coming back for another year. They're pretty close to where Darius Morris was when he left early. Wagner especially I could see going in the second round. He had issues with defense and strength. Wilson was more polished but I could see him moving into the lottery with a full season of work under JB.
I'd like to see your math on the $2 million - show your work - but for now, I'll take your word for it.
What the second round is - for *early entrees* (read: guys less likely to be ready to contribute immediately; read: that covers both Wilson and Wagner) - is a career killier in terms of career longevity, which is where the real money is.
The math don't lie.
My study - yes, I show my work:
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/first-round-why-it-matters
I also lay out the logic behind why sliding into the second round as an early entree is a "bad" way to go. The quotation marks are because it is legit money, it's just not a lifetime's worth of money and it severely compromises your ability to make lifetime money and then some.
April 30th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^
will check out your post more later (got in absurdly late from travel), but, again, I think the numbers say you're drawing the wrong conclusion: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/first-round-why-it-matters#comment-3125435
Because back when I posted that I ran *exactly* the comp you're asking for here and the results were dramatic in favor of the last 5 in the first round. The team investment (different to invest a 1st) plus the three years to work things out create a huge break point that comes right at the last pick of the 1st round.
I also note in that comment section that Darius is at the very high end of outcomes for his specific group (early entries, 2nd round).
To bring the numbers over, here were the results in terms of a "years of service" comp:
(listed as average YoS) (last 5 of 1st Rd vs. first 5 of 2nd Rd):
2003 8.8 to 4.6
2004 9.0 to 3.4
2005 7.2 to 5.0
2006 5.8 to 5.6
2007 5.2 to 4.2
2008 5.0 to 4.8
2009 5.8 to 4.2
2010 4.0 to 2.2
2011 3.4 to 2.2
(two of the years are close, although advantage still to the last 5 over the first 5, the rest of the years, that ranges from a tangible to a dramatic difference)
(also note that I throw out 3 eurostash picks in an effort to be painstakingly fair in my results (would make the results that much more favorable to my contention to keep them)).
April 30th, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^
even on a quick glance, I found 3 of the 4 - Draymond, Jae Crowder. Quincy Acy.
They are three that actually prove my point.
If you have the misfortune of sliding into the 2nd round, the biggest potential ameliorative is that you be a SENIOR with a fully developed game, ready to play immediately, and therefore worth the immediate attention of your team.*
My whole point centers around guys who slide to the 2nd round who are early entries - they are not as ready to be immediate contributors (they haven't plugged holes that make it difficult for them to be rotation players on the NBA level and they still have the handicap of the vagary of 2nd round status.
Draymond is literally the poster child - actually poster man, because dude was a man with a fully developed game when he got drafted - for my point.
It's okay to slide to the 2nd round if you're a senior who is ready to play. It's not okay if you're an early entry who won't come in league ready.
* I have a whole section in the study I link above that shows all the positive outcomes for seniors in the second round and how they differ from their early entry counterparts.
from being correct.
I don't disagree with your first paragraph, but I don't know where in heck you get the conclusion that opens the second paragraph.
And my study shows that you hit the full 180 with "You'll likely reach your full NBA potential."
That is wrong, at least from the extensive results I studied and present in the link above - and you've isolated precisely the reason a guy should really think it through if he's in danger of sliding into the second round if he's early entry.
Darius probably wasn't reaching any higher, although you never know - if he'd come in fully developed, there's a real chance he would have stuck instead of bounced around, and sticking in your first gig is a key precursor to a career of being on some roster, any roster (these guys can bounce around but they consistently catch on as a full roster player with team after team year after year), which, with veteran pay scale makes you crazy money even if you're just a guy on the bench for 12 years. DJ and Mo both clearly have pro-potential, in my mind, but guys like that can wash if they 1) can't contribute immediately and 2) are thrown into the vagary of second round draft status. There's a reason guys in the second round who have stuck in a program for a full 4 have much higher longevity outcomes. They're ready to plug in day one.
April 30th, 2017 at 11:36 AM ^
the NBA drafts on potential and the longer you stay in school the less potential you have. If you think a fourth year in college is going to move DJ into the lottery I have some ocean front property in Arizona for sale.
April 30th, 2017 at 11:53 AM ^
the NBA, in the last 5-6 years, has started to move away from that line of thinking. Sure, if you're viewed as a potential all world talent, yes, potential matters.
But if you're not one of those guys, the NBA has started to focus on who is ready to contribute immediately and start providing ROI on day one.
It's like how Moneyball first led to OBP being the new new source of value to how teams have moved onto other "hidden" stats. These things change. It's hacky to trot out some maxim that might have been true a decade ago, but is considerably less true now.
April 30th, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^
This season, a record 88 players made their NBA debuts (http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/245790/Record-88-Players-Make-NBA-…), and a record 38 players from the D League were called up 54 times (http://dleague.nba.com/callups/).
I think things are trending in a direction that is more friendly for ~NBA ready~ prospects. As the D-League itself develops there will be more activity at the end of the bench and more 2nd rounders and UDFA will get their shot.
Yeah, Burke sure hurt his draft stock by coming back another year...
April 30th, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^