Wilson and Wagner Invited to NBA Combine (Walton as Alternate)

Submitted by Bones032 on

The NBA Combine invites went out today. 60 players were invited, including DJ Wilson and Moe Wagner. Derrick Walton is listed as one of the 5 alternates. I guess based on the fact that Ball and other high picks might not attend, Derrick has a good chance of getting in. Link Below.

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19273805/nba-invites-more-60-players…

FGB

April 30th, 2017 at 12:41 AM ^

Just, like, generally.  Breathing in, breathing out, maintaining my normal heart rate.  Not going through tunnels, not being around farts, not doing any dares with a seven-year old. 

MichiganMAN47

April 30th, 2017 at 12:48 AM ^

If both come back we will definitely compete for a Big Ten Championship. If only one comes back we will still be in solid shape.

Cruzcontrol75

April 30th, 2017 at 1:28 AM ^

I'm no mathematician but I'm sure there are less NBA draft picks than that. It's all part of the game. If played correctly probably 120 or so of them get feedback on what they need to do for next years draft then withdraw by the May 24th deadline. I think Wagner and Wilson will realize that they have a few things to work on before they are ready for the Association. They will improve their draft stock en route to defending the B1G tournament championship. Miles Bridges on the other hand can help his stock a bit, but can actually stand to lose more in the eyes of NBA GMs than Wilson and Wagner by coming back.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/heres-why-its-not-a-bi…

bluesalt

April 30th, 2017 at 4:48 AM ^

And most who go to the combine will be in the draft. There are 66 players who've been invited to the combine. Wagner and Wilson are two of seventeen invitees who've not yet signed agents and are still testing out the process, so no, it's certainly not a guarantee they leave, but lumping them into the larger group of 137 who've declared is greatly understating the likelihood that one or both remain in the draft.

Also relevant is that this year's draft is relatively weak on bigs and heavy and guards and wings, whereas next year's draft will have a lot of quality bigs. This will give both of them a chance to impress in 5-on-5 drills.

I hope they both come back, but I'm not expecting it. Even being picked in the first ten picks of the second round would likely earn them over $2 million in guaranteed salary for their first two years -- that plus reaching your dream of playing in the NBA is difficult to turn down. I think they'll have to have poor combines to return, and I can't in good faith root for them to fail at that experience. A combine that meets expectations will put either at the end of the first round or beginning of the second.

Seth

April 30th, 2017 at 6:01 AM ^

Um, this year is chock full of bigs, particularly bigs in range of Mo and DJ. Caleb Swanigan is expected to go late 1st round or early 2nd in most mock drafts. There are few lottery pick bigs this year but there're a ton on guys Wagner and DJ have to separate from, most of them with more than a half a year of good film.

ThadMattasagoblin

April 30th, 2017 at 2:43 AM ^

I think both would definitely be better served by coming back for another year. They're pretty close to where Darius Morris was when he left early. Wagner especially I could see going in the second round. He had issues with defense and strength. Wilson was more polished but I could see him moving into the lottery with a full season of work under JB.

bluesalt

April 30th, 2017 at 5:03 AM ^

People keep citing him as an example of a player that shouldn't have left early, but he played most of four years in the NBA, is still on the fringe of the league even at this point, and made over $3 million while doing so. There's no evidence whatsoever that he would have had a more successful career had he remained in school for an additional year.

Getting picked in the early second round of the draft both gets you paid and means teams are willing to put the time and energy into helping you continue to develop your game. You'll likely reach your full NBA potential. If either have a guarantee to be picked even at #41, where Morris was picked, I'd encourage them to stay in the draft.

freejs

April 30th, 2017 at 5:46 AM ^

I'd like to see your math on the $2 million - show your work - but for now, I'll take your word for it. 

What the second round is - for *early entrees* (read: guys less likely to be ready to contribute immediately; read: that covers both Wilson and Wagner) - is a career killier in terms of career longevity, which is where the real money is. 

The math don't lie. 

My study - yes, I show my work: 



http://mgoblog.com/diaries/first-round-why-it-matters

I also lay out the logic behind why sliding into the second round as an early entree is a "bad" way to go. The quotation marks are because it is legit money, it's just not a lifetime's worth of money and it severely compromises your ability to make lifetime money and then some. 

bluesalt

April 30th, 2017 at 6:40 AM ^

Morris made $3 million for his career, per his basketball reference page (which is highly reliable for any player in the internet age.)

The $2 million I mention in a different reply. If you're referring to that, it's simply that a player who makes the minimum salary for his first two years will make over $2.2 million per the new CBA, combined with the fact that every player drafted 31-40 who signed a deal last year got at least two years guaranteed, and the year before all but two got two years guaranteed upfront (and of those two that didn't, one got a guarantee of over half his year 2 salary, and both made their second year).

As for your post you linked, it's not apples-to-apples with what I'm arguing. My point is specific to about the first ten spots or so in the second round in an average draft (some years this might extend to 15, and others as few as five). The back half of the second round is not good for long-term NBA success, either in contract or career longevity, but the differences between #25 and #35 are not so stark. Just looking at 2012, the most recent draft in which all players have reached free agency (or signed an extension prior to reaching free agency), we see that only one player picked from 21-30 signed a multi-year deal after his rookie contract (Miles Plumlee), while four players picked 31-40 did so, two of whom signed for more than Plumlee. A fifth player in the 31-40 range was from Europe, and only signed his first NBA contract last summer, but got 3 years, $9 million when he did (equivalent to about the 8th pick in the most recent draft). For the past couple of drafts, 1-2 picks in the early 30s got more guaranteed than late 1st rounders did.

Again, I think people are too quick to lump the entire NBA second round as one group when analyzing these sorts of things. If I had the time, which I don't, I'd do what you did and look at it for every 10 draft slots. I think you'd see a pretty small difference overall between picks 21-30 and 31-40. I'm saying late first vs. early 2nd doesn't greatly matter, not non-lottery vs. any second. If Wagner or Wilson hear a lot of evaluations that point them to pick 45, they should absolutely return to school. But if they're hearing they're on the cusp of the 1st round and 2nd round, it's pretty equivalent regardless of which side they end up on.

freejs

April 30th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^

will check out your post more later (got in absurdly late from travel), but, again, I think the numbers say you're drawing the wrong conclusion: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/first-round-why-it-matters#comment-3125435

Because back when I posted that I ran *exactly* the comp you're asking for here and the results were dramatic in favor of the last 5 in the first round. The team investment (different to invest a 1st) plus the three years to work things out create a huge break point that comes right at the last pick of the 1st round. 

I also note in that comment section that Darius is at the very high end of outcomes for his specific group (early entries, 2nd round). 

To bring the numbers over, here were the results in terms of a "years of service" comp:

 

(listed as average YoS) (last 5 of 1st Rd vs. first 5 of 2nd Rd):

2003  8.8 to 4.6

2004  9.0 to 3.4

2005  7.2 to 5.0

2006  5.8 to 5.6

2007  5.2 to 4.2

2008  5.0 to 4.8

2009  5.8 to 4.2

2010  4.0 to 2.2

2011  3.4 to 2.2

 

(two of the years are close, although advantage still to the last 5 over the first 5, the rest of the years, that ranges from a tangible to a dramatic difference) 



(also note that I throw out 3 eurostash picks in an effort to be painstakingly fair in my results (would make the results that much more favorable to my contention to keep them)). 

 

 

freejs

April 30th, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^

even on a quick glance, I found 3 of the 4 - Draymond, Jae Crowder. Quincy Acy. 

They are three that actually prove my point

If you have the misfortune of sliding into the 2nd round, the biggest potential ameliorative is that you be a SENIOR with a fully developed game, ready to play immediately, and therefore worth the immediate attention of your team.* 

My whole point centers around guys who slide to the 2nd round who are early entries - they are not as ready to be immediate contributors (they haven't plugged holes that make it difficult for them to be rotation players on the NBA level and they still have the handicap of the vagary of 2nd round status. 

Draymond is literally the poster child - actually poster man, because dude was a man with a fully developed game when he got drafted - for my point. 

It's okay to slide to the 2nd round if you're a senior who is ready to play. It's not okay if you're an early entry who won't come in league ready. 

 

* I have a whole section in the study I link above that shows all the positive outcomes for seniors in the second round and how they differ from their early entry counterparts. 

 

freejs

April 30th, 2017 at 5:55 AM ^

from being correct. 

I don't disagree with your first paragraph, but I don't know where in heck you get the conclusion that opens the second paragraph. 

And my study shows that you hit the full 180 with "You'll likely reach your full NBA potential." 

That is wrong, at least from the extensive results I studied and present in the link above - and you've isolated precisely the reason a guy should really think it through if he's in danger of sliding into the second round if he's early entry.

Darius probably wasn't reaching any higher, although you never know - if he'd come in fully developed, there's a real chance he would have stuck instead of bounced around, and sticking in your first gig is a key precursor to a career of being on some roster, any roster (these guys can bounce around but they consistently catch on as a full roster player with team after team year after year), which, with veteran pay scale makes you crazy money even if you're just a guy on the bench for 12 years. DJ and Mo both clearly have pro-potential, in my mind, but guys like that can wash if they 1) can't contribute immediately and 2) are thrown into the vagary of second round draft status. There's a reason guys in the second round who have stuck in a program for a full 4 have much higher longevity outcomes. They're ready to plug in day one. 

 

 

 

freejs

April 30th, 2017 at 11:53 AM ^

the NBA, in the last 5-6 years, has started to move away from that line of thinking. Sure, if you're viewed as a potential all world talent, yes, potential matters. 

But if you're not one of those guys, the NBA has started to focus on who is ready to contribute immediately and start providing ROI on day one. 

It's like how Moneyball first led to OBP being the new new source of value to how teams have moved onto other "hidden" stats. These things change. It's hacky to trot out some maxim that might have been true a decade ago, but is considerably less true now. 

 

 

Lee Everett

April 30th, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^

This season, a record 88 players made their NBA debuts (http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/245790/Record-88-Players-Make-NBA-…), and a record 38 players from the D League were called up 54 times (http://dleague.nba.com/callups/).  

I think things are trending in a direction that is more friendly for ~NBA ready~ prospects.  As the D-League itself develops there will be more activity at the end of the bench and more 2nd rounders and UDFA will get their shot.

bacon

April 30th, 2017 at 6:08 AM ^

The reality for players in the NBA draft is that if you're not in the top 20 picks, your career is done. You might make it as a role player, but the NBA has almost no room for development, and even if you could make it to bench status after a year or two, there's an influx of new kids every year and no incentive to keep people who aren't playing meaningful minutes. And good luck getting someone else to sign you if you're not playing. At least there's the D-league now, but there's (on average) 62 players total from the NBA in that league. That's less than 2 per team, and it's biased towards players with three or less years in the NBA. So, if you're not ready to play in the NBA, don't go into the draft.

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm