What does the 12 team playoff look like now with realignment?
Thinking about this the upcoming 12 team playoff and not sure what they’re going to do with it. Last I heard, the four conference champs would get a bye, while the next four highest ranked get a home game, while the remainders play on the road.
With the PAC basically gone and the ACC up in the air, what’s the solution to this? Do they just go with the four highest ranked get bye, then next four home game, etc.?
It took years to negotiate this format into existence; it will not go away quickly. They are going to keep the "conference champions only" rule for the top 4 in the forseeable future.
August 5th, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
So, the ACC and Big 12 Conference Champs automatically get a bye?
August 5th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
You think that would slow down Clemson from leaving (if they were serious). Might see Oregon State with a bye then next season. It would be a huge benefit for the bottom of the PAC teams who stuck around.
August 5th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
No there are technically no automatic byes. The 6 highest rated conference champions make the CFP, and the 4 highest rated of those 6 will receive byes, with no conferences getting autobids.
But yeah, I assume that the practical result here is that the ACC, B"10", B12 and SEC champions will have the 4 byes 90 percent of the time.
August 5th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
Under the current format plans for 2024 and beyond, ND wouldn't be able to ever receive a first round bye (unless they were to join a conference), correct?
August 5th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
I believe that is correct.
August 5th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
It took years to negotiate between 5 relative equals.
the next iteration is a negotiation between 2 equals. Much easier.
It has 12 teams? It’ll look a little different every year due to different teams being in it.
August 5th, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
If we take cal and Stanford we get the pac 12 guaranteed slot. :)
August 5th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
This will all be solved using the sort-of-helpful-but-not-scientific ranking system.
Somebody on the fringe will get shafted. It already happens almost every year.
August 5th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
It will be super hard for any independents or even conference champs outside of the B1G and SEC to make the playoffs in the future. 2 loss teams navigating the juggernaut of those super conferences will and probably should get a nod over a 1 loss team with a less competitive schedule.
August 5th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
We’re not far from B10/SEC moving to make their own exclusive championship (if they work together) or championships if they become two competing leagues. Once the acc GoR ends, the last big market schools will make their choice of b10/acc. Notre Dame will join the B10 finally and we’ll be left with two competing national football leagues.
August 5th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
So does this basically ensure that a G5 team never gets a bye? It sounds like, if I’ve heard correctly, a spot is reserved for the highest ranked G5 team. But if the four P5 conference champions get a first round bye, what do you do in the occasional years that you have a very highly ranked G5 team with a solid resume, like you did with Cincinnati last year? Are they just stuck with a first round home game and have to deal with it?
And then what happens if you get an 8-4 Purdue team that sneaks into the BTCG and knocks off a 12-0 Michigan or OSU team that simply has a bad day? Purdue would seriously get a first round bye?
August 5th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
In that scenario, a G5 champ would likely be ranked higher than Purdue so Purdue would be in the playoff but not guaranteed a first round bye.
SEC champ
ACC champ
BXII champ
AAC champ (UTSA or Tulane for example, if they go 12-1 or 11-2)
B1G champ (Purdue in this example)
Mtn West champ (say SDSU)
get first round home games
the big IF is that the Pac-12 being dead means their "slot" is now essentially a second Group of 5 slot, since its remnants are likely to go to the Mountain West.
August 5th, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
ESPN will just decide to give Alabama the trophy. Games are meaningless now.
August 5th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
Or whichever SEC team it pushes to be there.
August 5th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
The SEC and Big10 will get 4 each, all other schools will fight over the other 4.
August 5th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
If the Hoke years were going on right now in this climate of college football, I wouldn't even be watching college football anymore. It sucks to see what this game is turning into. Michigan kicking ass is the only saving grace for me right now
August 5th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
The latter half of the hoke era was increasingly difficult to watch regardless of what the national landscape looked like.
August 5th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
This assumes the Pac 12 will even exist next year. Just lower the number of automatic bids from 6 to 5, top 4 get a bye. Shouldn't be that hard.
August 5th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
There are still more conferences. Keeping the number at 6 is a lot easier than renegotiating everything... and actually helps mollify smaller-conference schools (including a number of the schools on the losing end of this past week) by giving them an incrementally better chance at getting a piece of the pie.
Ironically, a school that's on the losing end now might wind up with a realistic path to the playoff where none previously existed if the dominoes fall right. Their chances of winning haven't changed any, but at least they're in the show (and, perhaps in the long run, that becomes a rising tide that lifts the boats in the "have-not" portion of the division, just perhaps). Keeping the "6" number is politically wise.
August 5th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Who knows, they just want high revenue games to collect dollars. They’ll figure something out.
b12 and acc seem set to exist as second class conferences who get a seat at the table for the next decade. Once all the large market teams have been consolidated into b10/sec I expect a full exit from the ncaa and a fresh look at playoffs and access, possibly two exclusive national college football leagues ala the afl/nfl era. Maybe a mlb style nl/al final cross league championship.
August 5th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Of the top 24 highest value college football teams, 12 are SEC, 11 are B10. The other is ND.
This will only increase with B10/SEC schools getting double or triple what B12 and ACC are getting.
College football IS the B10 and SEC now. I expect playoff arrangements to reflect that reality shortly.
You have to anticipate that recruiting will follow this pattern. If you're a 5* or 4.5*, you're going to want to play in the big leagues, i.e. the SEC and B1G.
August 5th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
Maybe an unpopular opinion, but they need to get rid of automatic bids. Take the 12 best teams, period. I would hate to see a 10-2 P5 team ranked in the top 10 lose out to a conference winner of a G5 conference that wouldn’t finish in the top half of a P5 conference.
August 5th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
And conference tiebreakers are going to get more and more messy as these leagues get bigger and schedules more unbalanced.
I'm not too worried about a 10-2 team being left out over the one G5 team that gets in; basically every year the best G5 team is going to be a top-12-ish team.
Last year, for example, Tulane was ranked #16 in the final poll and wound up finishing 12-2 by beating USC. I'd argue they're at least as good as PSU, the aforementioned USC, and Washington, the 3 schools that finished 10-12.
What bothers me way more is Notre Dame having an auto path in and a world where FSU or Clemson get in over a more deserving team because they play in a much weaker conference.
Lots of ideas about this are interesting but obviously this roiling chaos means nothing's obvious.