Week 14 Polls and Ratings - AP #10, Coaches #11
Run down of the advanced stats after Week 13 heading into the Game and Rivalry Week. As usual, FEI won't be out for a couple days so the F/+ (#10 before Indiana) and FEI (#14 before Indiana) are not updated at this time. Michigan made another jump in most of the advanced stats except S&P+.
AP Poll #10: http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
Coaches Poll #11: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
F/+ #??: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
FEI #??: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
Massey Ratings #7 (#7 Power Rating): http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings
Sagarin Ratings #7 (#8 in Predictor): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI #7: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
SRS #5: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-ratings.html
538 #7: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/
Michigan's team statistical profile:
ESPN FPI: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=130&year=2019
Massey Ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=308075
- Michigan's SOS this season was even better than anticipated.
- Ohio State still looks like a Death Star as the distance between OSU and everyone else is striking in the advanced stats. Top 4 in the country and in the Big Ten listed. Some advanced stats projections of The Game follow at the end.
S&P+:
1. OSU 36.2
2. Alabama 32.6
3. LSU 29.9
4. Clemson 28.8
7. PSU 24.1
10. Michigan 22.7
12. Wisconsin 21.0
ESPN FPI:
1. OSU 33.2
2. Clemson 30.7
3. Alabama 29.2
4. LSU 25.8
6. PSU 23.0
7. Michigan 22.0
13. Wisconsin 20.3
Sagarin Predictor:
1. OSU 105.35
2. Clemson 100.52
3. Alabama 98.98
4. LSU 95.02
7. PSU 91.62
8. Michigan 90.96
9. Wisconsin 90.77
SRS:
1. OSU 27.24
2. LSU 20.83
3. Alabama 20.76
4. Clemson 20.76
5. Michigan 18.83
8. Wisconsin 18.23
9. PSU 17.80
Massey Power Rating:
1. OSU 88.21
2. Alabama 85.23
3. Clemson 84.73
4. LSU 82.68
7. Michigan 75.81
9. PSU 74.65
13. Wisconsin 72.47
THE GAME PROJECTIONS:
S&P+: +13.5 point underdog (without home field advantage)
ESPN FPI: Michigan 26.1% projected win percentage. +11 point underdog (without home field advantage).
Sagarin Predictor: Michigan +12 point underdog (taking into account home field advantage).
SRS: +8.5 point underdog (without home field advantage)
Massey Prediction: OSU 35, Michigan 28. Michigan 27% projected win percentage.
538: Michigan 30% projected win percentage.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
I wonder how the computer projections would look if they only looked at the last 5-6 weeks.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^
The sample size is really small looking at so few games, but some of them do a rating that weights more recent play more heavily than earlier games. By the RECENT Sagarin rating, Michigan would be #6, but there is almost no change for OSU as they are still #1.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
November 24th, 2019 at 2:15 PM ^
I didn't see a thread on the advanced stats earlier. Apologies if I missed it. I did see the Coaches Poll thread, but I don't consider that the purpose of this thread. I put the polls in here to be complete, but I was posting this more to discuss the advanced stats. I think I did have the AP Poll first if that makes you feel better.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
Your post is more comprehensive. No apology needed.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:12 PM ^
I going into this week believing that Ohio State is going to get upset.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
I wonder what we would rank if we beat OSU 40-10.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^
Not a chance FL, MN, and OK are in front of Michigan after an Ohio win. Let the chips fall. Love everything i've seen out of The Team since they stepped on the field against ND
November 24th, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^
the distance between OSU and everyone else is striking
I don't care what those stats say. I saw Ohio St play Michigan St, Wisconsin, and Penn St. They are not looking as powerful as the media is saying.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^
I never would have thought this before reading these advanced stats (or maybe previously in my life) but if (when?) Michigan beats them Saturday, I hope they win out and are national champs. As much as it would suck to watch them win it all, having Michigan be the only team that could beat those bastards is an ok-enough 2nd place trophy for me. (For now.)
November 24th, 2019 at 2:37 PM ^
You got that kinda wrong. It's better to say "If they won it all" you would feel proud that Michigan was the one team that defeated them, but you don't pull for them to win it all.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^
Michigan opens up +9 point underdog in Vegas, and the spread is now up to +9.5.
November 24th, 2019 at 3:30 PM ^
The line is likely to build all week, maybe up to 10.5 points by early friday. I bet the sharps bet it back down to 9.5 or 9 when its all said and done.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
I will take a 25-30% win chance against OSU.
Better than I would have predicted.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
So what happens to those projections if homefield is taken into account?
November 24th, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
Home field is usually worth around 3 points on average.
November 24th, 2019 at 6:07 PM ^
I know that’s what Vegas says, but watching Michigan football -especially under Harbaugh- that seems really low.