Wednesday's Rooting Guide - We're on 11 Brackets addition!
Morning everybody. Holy cow, another night of really exciting games! Much like most of the weekend & Monday, it was a mixed bag for Michigan's chances. We really get a chance to have a say in that tomorrow. But before that, let's look at what happened last night, where Michigan stands, and our rooting interests for today:
- As mentioned, the results last night were mixed. Clemson in particular losing was massive (thanks UVA!) and Texas Tech losing essentially means they likely have to, at a minimum, make the Big 12 final to even have a chance. The last-minute collapse by SDSU against Boise State was a bummer for sure. Hell, even South Carolina gave Mississippi State all it could handle on the road. If you count the Spartan win (which I am here), we went 3-4 in games we were interested in last night.
- Kind of an added bonus game last night, I mentioned to keep an eye on Michigan non-conference opponents. Well, don't look now but Lipscomb is in the A-Sun semi-finals and has a chance for a Quad-2 road win on Thursday. They're inside 150 on the NET rankings now.
- As for Michigan, Kenpom, Torvik, and NET rankings are holding steady (we're back to 55 on the NET rankings today). Kind of an interesting one to keep an eye on, without playing last night, College of Charleston dropped from 51 to 54 last night and are just ahead of us. That will be a team to watch in Colonial Conference tourney this weekend.
- As of their update last night, Bracket Matrix has us on 11 brackets (more than I would have thought to be honest). We should get another update later today.
Alright, let's look at tonight's games because there are some important ones for sure:
- Auburn (19-10, 9-7) at Alabama (25-4, 15-1) - (Bama by 10) - 7pm EST on ESPN2 - Auburn is in a really interesting position. They've now lost 7 of their last 10 games. And they end their regular season at Alabama and home against Tennessee. If they lose both of those games, they're sitting at 19-12 and 9-9. And while they are 37 on the NET rankings, they only have 2 Quad-1 wins. My general feeling is, if Auburn losses both of these final games, they're likely going to be one of the last teams in the tournament heading into the SEC tournament. If they lose that opening game there, yikes! We're rooting for Bama here.
- Pittsburgh (21-8, 14-4) at Notre Dame (10-19, 2-16) - (Pitt by 3.5) - 7pm on ESPNU - So, this one has been the daily debate here lol Here's where I stand (today). Pitt still has a chance to win the ACC regular season. Yes, the ACC is down but there is just no way they would get left out in that scenario. And we are ever so close to Pitt being another Quad-1 win for us. If they lose to ND tonight, I think our rooting interests may change but for tonight, my personal opinion, I think it's in Michigan's best interests for Pitt to win.
- Penn State (17-12, 8-10) at Northwestern (20-9, 11-7) - (NU by 4) - 9pm on BTN - I would argue there are two really important games for Michigan tonight. This is the first one and this one matters for two reasons. Penn State and Michigan are right by each other on most bubble lines. Like us, they have 3 Quad-1 wins. The one-up they have is no Quad 3 or 4 losses. Their last-second loss to Rutgers was a big help, we need that same help from Northwestern tonight. We still have a decent shot to get Northwestern up there for that 2nd Quad-1 win from them as well. Go Cats!
- Utah State (22-7, 11-5) at UNLV (17-11, 6-10) - (Ut. State by 2.5) - 11pm on CBS Sports Network - This is that other really critical game I mentioned. Utah State is right behind Michigan's tail on the Bracket Matrix and right around them on most bubble lines. Interestingly enough, the 9 brackets that have Utah State do not have Michigan. You do the math. Utah State only beat UNLV by 4 points on Utah State's home court back in mid-January so this game isn't impossible by any means. We're big Runnin' Rebel fans.
Not sure if others have noticed but over the last few nights, we've been rooting for a number of underdogs. That's not the case tonight. 3 of the 4 games, the team we want is favored. Let's make it 4-4 on the night and head into a massive game for Michigan tomorrow. Go Blue!
Texas Tech lost last night yet their NET apparently went *up* by five spots.
I noticed that too... anybody know why?
Put simply, they only lost by four at Kansas which is significantly outperforming expectations for a team of their rank so their raw NET improved. (the math for NET is a little more complicated than that, but that is effectively the answer)
The reason they moved up so many spots - and I made this point yesterday or the day before - is that the teams ranked 50-54 are bunched extremely tightly. They all have essentially the same NET (which remember, are actual "scores" that are then ordered to get the ranks). Hence, even if it was a tiny improvement for TTU, they were able to jump them all.
That close bunching is why Charleston dropped behind Pitt and Oregon despite none of them even playing. So some tiny change in their NET because of something their opponents did was enough to drop them two spots because the scores are so close.
Those teams (North Texas, Oregon, Pitt, Charleston and Michigan) all have basically identical NET raw scores and have been shuffling in that range all week without even playing.
And that means Pitt should be able to move to the front of the group (like TTU did) with a solid win over ND tonight. It won't be enough to just win, they need to win by probably 12 give or take a few points - because again that'll be what it takes to significantly exceed the expectations for them in that game - and the'll move to top 50. Of course the more they win by above that threshold, the more space they'll get.
So we're not just rooting for Pitt to win, we're rooting for a blow out (and short of that, we'd probably rather they lose than win close). High variance event is what we want.
I wonder if making the quad cutoffs based on the underlying score, and not the ranking, would improve the system. So if teams are ranked from 0 to 1, and teams go 28. 0.8587, 29. 0.8574, 30. 0.8560, 31. 0.8543, 32. 0.8533, etc, then making the cutoff for Q1 as >0.85 rating instead of >= 30 ranking would be better.
First lets see if this system would help or hurt Michigan, then step 2 lets petition the selection committee to use this system.
That might be a good idea. I was just thinking about how frustrating it would be if Pitt misses the top 50 by like 0.001 or whatever.
But there is a frustratingly arbitrary nature to the quadrant cutoffs either way. This year it's probably to Michigan's advantage because most of their q1 games are barely q1 and opposed to the q2 games that are barely q2 (only MSU and Pitt fit here but Michigan has a lot of q1 games on the brink of being q2 - luckily most of those are losses - UVA, IU, UNC, @Wiscy - so they aren't in danger of losing a q1 win unless Maryland pulls an IU and gets blown out to drop ten spots).
This is different than last year when a lot of their q1 games were high end, very high difficulty q1 games.
The hope is that the committee uses some level of eye test and not solely the numbers. Michigan is playing extremely well right now, and did so for the whole month of February give or take a lack of rebounding at Wisconsin. Hopefully that factors in.
Most likely reason is someone on their schedule moved from a quad 2 win to quad 1 or something along those lines
No, NET doesn't have anything to do with the quadrants. The quadrants are simply a method of bucketing difficulty of games for the committee to compare resumes. The quadrants are a result of NET rankings, not an input.
Yea, I noticed that too. I got nothing. I tried to look at their wins and losses and, yea no clue.
Maryland at Ohio State
- Pittsburgh (21-8, 14-4) at Notre Dame (10-19, 2-16) - (Pitt by 3.5) - 7pm on ESPNU - So, this one has been the daily debate here lol Here's where I stand (today). Pitt still has a chance to win the ACC regular season. Yes, the ACC is down but there is just no way they would get left out in that scenario. And we are ever so close to Pitt being another Quad-1 win for us. If they lose to ND tonight, I think our rooting interests may change but for tonight, my personal opinion, I think it's in Michigan's best interests for Pitt to win.
THWND!
Thanks for these write-ups, True. Good stuff.
A 3rd reason Northwestern winning helps Michigan, the only way Michigan can finish with the 1 seed is if Northwestern, Michigan, and Purdue all tie, then Michigan wins the Tiebreaker. Of course that requires Purdue to lose to Illinois and Wisconsin, so unlikely.
Another thing is that a lot of the other bubble teams are starting to win games and have higher NET than Michigan, i.e. 39 Memphis, 45 UNC, 26 Boise, 44 Miss St. Meaning that the bubble is shrinking and Michigan is unlikely to back in. Have to win tomorrow to keep pace.
We don't want the one seed because that involves Wisconsin beating Purdue.
That involves us winning the next two as well, which would make the badgers moot.
I don't like Wisconsin, but not to the point where I'd pass up a shot at a Big Ten title because they'd win a game.
Yeah, I mean if we win the conference we’re getting into the NCAA Tourney
Honestly, if we won a share of the conference title, I wouldn't even care if we missed the tournament. I'd take that banner over scraping in off the bubble in a heartbeat...
I hate to say this, and I know it is going against conventional wisdom right now, but I feel like Michigan has to either beat both Illinois AND Indiana or beat one and make it to the BTT final to get a spot. This is not just "feels," it is about who is in front of us and what needs to happen.
Conventional wisdom has the most bubbly teams as ASU, Wisconsin, Miss State, NC, OK State, and Michigan.
Arizona State has UCLA and USC left. Both tough games on the road. But because they are tough games on the road, neither is going to hurt their resume that bad if they lose, and they pasted us head to head. And frankly if I had to bet, coming off that miracle against Zona, I think they get one of them.
Wisconsin has Purdue and Minnesota left. What is the worst that can happen? The realistic worst is that they lose to Purdue and beat Minnesota. (And they have Purdue at home). Does a Michigan split put us over the top on them? I don't think so. They are in 60 more brackets than Michigan on bracket matrix.
Miss. State - At a (surprisingly semi-competent) Vandy team remaining. They could lose this. That would be good.
North Carolina - Home v. Duke. Probably going to win. But they appear to be ahead of us on the bubble right now, so what does a loss do to them against a Michigan split? Not much, I don't think.
Ok State - At Texas Tech remaining. They could lose this. That would be good.
I just do not see a whole lot of upward mobility. I don't think the bare minimum, a split and a Friday BTT win, quite gets this done.
I think it's a pretty straightforward path and we control our destiny more than people realize over the next three games.
1. Go 3-0 and we're definitely in
2. Go 2-1 and we're almost assuredly in
3. Go 1-2 and we're almost assuredly out (unless the one win is in the B1G tourny and they go on and make the finals)
4. Go 0-3 and we're definitely out
It's a three game season now.
Agree with all of this. I think my one caveat to #2 is if the 2nd win is against Minnesota. I think we may need a 3rd win in that scenario. Otherwise, in full agreement here.
I agree with everything except for (2).
I think it is "go 2-1 and it is a complete coin flip as to whether we get in."
I would add "get a double-bye and go 3-1 and we are almost assuredly in"
Agree. Going 2-1 and getting into the tourney is probably going to depend on what other teams on the bubble do and whether teams like Florida Atlantic, Liberty, etc win their conference tourney.
Respectfully disagree. Despite all the protests from the committee brand still does matter and Michigan basketball is a pretty big brand with a very large audience draw. And a 19-13 Michigan is almost assuredly not getting left out of the dance, especially with as well as they're playing down the stretch (which again, i know they claim that doesnt matter). Way more likely than a coin flip.
Back in the day I was selling something to a hospital and the materials manager told me something I've never forgotten. He said, "when the door to my office is open, it's all quality, quality, quality as my purchasing decision driver. But when the door is closed it's actually price, price, price."
The door to the selection process is closed.
Edit: And thanks again TrueBlue for doing these. Unbelievably awesome feature and one i definitely look forward to reading every day!
I don't disagree regarding brand, but to say they are "most assuredly" in at 2-1 is to basically assume that all of the conference tourneys go chalk and 2 or 3 teams lose the specific game we need them to lose. To me, that is somewhat unrealistic.
Michigan going 2-1 down the stretch gives them 2 more Q1 wins, and assuming a split with Illinois/IU on the road that also gives them a Q1A win. Michigan with 11 combined Q1/2 wins with 5 of those in Q1 is a very strong bubble resume. Michigan might also pick up further Q1 wins from teams moving up in the NET (MSU, NW, Pitt). Sure, it doesn't guarantee them an at-large bid, but it makes their resume a lot stronger than similar profile teams on the bubble. Hence why they would be "most assuredly" in.
Are you still selling ortho products? And if so, will you be at Academy next week?
If we win one of the next two, we'll have three Quad 1 road wins. That's a lot. We'll also have around eight wins against teams in the tourney field (Pitt, Maryland, MSU, Northwestern x2, Rutgers, maybe Wisconsin, UI/IU) with possibly more to come in the BTT. We should be on the right side of the bubble if that happens.
Yeah, this mostly matches what I expect. If they split the next 2 games and then win a BTT game they're in good shape. I'm not even sure if the Minnesota caveat applies for that BTT win but definitely would help if it wasn't the Gophers. Also, if they go 2-0 this week then I don't think it really matters what happens in the BTT (unless the loss is to the Gophers).
Every 10 and 11 on bracket matrix is vulnerable. Auburn, Nevada, Memphis, USC, Boise, WVU.
I do think you're right that Wisconsin, ASU, and UNC are probably going to remain ahead of Michigan with a split. They only need 3ish teams to falter. Ok St, Miss St, and USC are probably the 3 prime candidates right now because their NET is in the mid 40s, and their Q1 records are passable if Michigan splits.
Us both going 1-1 absolutely would leap frog us over Wisconsin in that scenario in most brackets. Your bubble is also too small. USC is pretty solidly in right now as the highest 11 seed but if they go 0-2 this week and Michigan goes 1-1 they are now sitting on the bubble with us going into the conference tournaments. If we win our first game and they lose their first finishing 0-3 we probably pass them. Same thing with if Boise loses early in the MWC. Finishing 2-1 puts Michigan squarely on the bubble and probably 50-50 in or out.
How do you think Michigan leapfrogs Wisconsin if both go 1-1 and Wisconsin's loss is to Purdue? They still have 2 more Quad 1 wins at that point, a head to head split, no quad-4 losses, and a win over a top 5 team. Once again, Michigan and Wisconsin are not close on bracket matrix. Badgers on 74 brackets to Michigan 11.
We don't pass Wisconsin there. Outside shot if Pitt and MSU become Quad 1 wins.
Because our win would be a Quad 1 game and theirs would be against Minnesota.
On Bracket Matrix, Wisconsin is the last 11 seed. They may be in a lot of brackets, but almost everyone is putting them in Dayton.
Wisconsin is on 74 brackets but some of that is lagging brackets; in the 61 brackets that got posted yesterday, for example, they're 11 in 41, 12 to 7 of them, and unlisted in 13. That's a real shift for them considering only a couple of days ago (the 26th) out of 30 brackets they were 11 to 23, 12 to 2 more and only missing from 5 of them. Now if they beat Purdue then they're in but if they go 1-1 down the stretch they're going to be 17-13, 9-11 in conference and possibly walking into a tough first BTT game.
Also, their biggest win is against Marquette, who's #13 in the NET ratings. Them sweeping Iowa is probably their biggest calling card right now.
I agree that Wisconsin is probably in as we speak right now but their OOC schedule wasn't great (134th to KenPom vs. UM's 160th), there's a good chance they'll finish with a losing conference record, and over the past month and a half they've been a mediocre-to-bad basketball team. These team sheets aren't purely a NET rating and if the Badgers finish poorly down the stretch I'm not sure they'll be saved by being a better basketball team in mid December.
Ok. I will accept that response.
Sorry, man, you're looking at it wrong. Michigan is very close to Wisconsin on the matrix. Wisconsin is the last team in, Michigan the third team out. They are literally as close as two teams on the same seed line. That margin is razor thin.
Being on a bracket is binary and there's mostly consensus from bracket to bracket so it's easy to go from just off most brackets to just on most brackets. Take ASU for example. They were on zero brackets before Saturday. One road q1 win and they're now on 55. Same will happen for Michigan and the spots they'll be taking will be Wisconsin's. Will be a swift reversal.
This is acceptable as well.
With a split Michigan will move ahead of Wisconsin if they don't beat Purdue.
With a split Michigan will likely move ahead of ASU if they lose at both UCLA and USC.
With a split Michigan will move ahead of UNC if they lose to Duke.
With a split Michigan will move ahead of Ok State even if they beat TTU.
I'm surprised people aren't talking more about Auburn. They have almost an identical resume to Michigan right now, so Michigan could move ahead of them with a split.
And to ak's point, USC isn't safe so if they lose to ASU, they're in trouble. The loser of that game almost certainly moves behind a Michigan team that splits.
There's lots of room for upward mobility. These teams are all very close and splitting q1 road games is better than what most of them will do the rest of the way.
I really don't think there is a convincing case as to 1 and 4 above, and I think 2 is an unlikely scenario.
I want to clarify, I am not trying to be a downer, I just think Michigan has more work to do than we would like to think if A LOT doesn't break our way.
Well, hopefully we split so we find out. I'm quite certain you will be proven wrong. Michigan and Wisconsin are very close right now.
Same with ok state who is even closer to Michigan right now.
The matrix goes Wisconsin as the last team in and then Ok State, UNC, Michigan as the first three out. Those four are extremely close. An extra q1 road win for Michigan compared to the others will do it for them.
I think you are stating the obvious. We absolutely need 2 more wins. Howeva, there is still a very definite chance that we win 2 games and still don't make the tourney. All of this bubble rooting stuff just helps us understand what we need to happen to make the tourney IF we win 2 games.
Long-time lurker, first time poster. Just wanted to say thank you for posting these everyday. You’ve truly been my go to for who we need to root for. So thank you and Go Blue!!!!
Welcome to the board! As a side note, the show isn't the same without Joe Gatto.
Thanks for the welcome!!! And agreed, the show isn’t the same without Joe. He was the funniest one.
Liberty is another team to root for... they are 41 on KenPom. Atlantic Sun Conference Tourney is in the semi-finals and a non-Liberty could (possibly) be a seed-stealer if Liberty still gets a bid. Liberty (25-7) plays E. Kentucky (20-12) at 7pm and the other semi-final is our old friend Lipscomb (at 20-12) vs. Kennesaw St. (24-8).
Bubble teams also want Oral Roberts to win its tourney and for FAU to win the Conference USA tourney. Oral Roberts is #28 in the AP and FAU is ranked in the 30s on KenPom (with AP votes).
Whoever is "Last Four In" will be rooting for Liberty, Oral Roberts, and FAU to win their conference tournaments while flipping through ESPN+ channels all next week
You lost me at 'root for Liberty' lol ;)
But seriously, I agree with your analysis here!
Yeah. Some of these smaller conference tourneys are huge for teams on the bubble.
Liberty will absolutely not be an at large. They have zero q1 wins, only one q2 win and three quad three losses. They are not close.
Not sure why Auburn is so much higher on NET and a 10 seed in nearly every bracket.
Auburn 19-10 (9-7); NET 37:
Q1: 2-8 Q2: 6-1 Q3: 8-1 Q4: 3-0; SOS: 36; Average NET Win: 131, NET Loss: 41
Best Win: 72-59 (H) vs Arkansas (Net 14); Worst Loss: 64-76 (A) vs UGA (Net 150)
Michigan 17-12 (11-7); NET 55:
Q1: 3-10 Q2: 6-1 Q3: 4-0 Q4: 4-1; SOS: 28; Average NET Win: 126, NET Loss: 60
Best Win: 81-46 (H) vs Maryland (Net 20); Worst Loss: 61-63 (H) vs CMU (Net 323)
Yes our worst loss is much worse but we have more Q1/Q2 wins with a harder schedule. Should they be ahead of us? Probably. 18 spots ahead of us and safe in the tournament (for now), doubtful.
If Auburn loses their next 2 games, @Alabama, Tennessee, then they slide into 1st 4 out and are probably going to need multiple wins in the conference tournament.
The singular NET rank is not a heavily weighted criteria but the reason they're so far ahead has to do with margins of victory.
And yes, they have a very similar resume to Michigan. They are 11 spots ahead of Michigan on the matrix but I do think they're in more trouble than most bracketologists seemingly think. They've lost seven of ten and I suspect they've been slow to be downgraded.
It is always in Michigan's best interest when Notre Dame loses!