Wednesday's Rooting Guide - Bubble Edition
Hi all. One more day before our pivotal game with Rutgers! And while Michigan wasn't in action last night, the bubble moved considerably. Let's look at some of that before we dive into today's rooting guide:
- Based on some teams winning and losing, Michigan's NET ranking jumped from 65 to 62 overnight. Love to see that!
- The MSU game is 6 spots away from a Quad 1 win. The Northwestern home game is 9 away as well.
- Of the 6 games I discussed yesterday, 4 of the 6 games went our way!
- No change yet to Lunardi's bracket, so nothing new to report there just yet.
Quite a few games tonight that would help Michigan. Let's take a look:
- Syracuse at Clemson (Clemson by 5) - 7pm EST on ACC Network - While Clemson has a gaudy conference record (11-5), they had a pretty meh non-conference record. While they do have 3 Quad 1 wins, they also have 3 Quad 4 losses. Most brackets have them just ahead of Michigan. Syracuse can take care of that problem for us. Go 'Cuse!
- Minnesota at Maryland (Maryland by 15.5) - 7pm on BTN - No big mystery here. Maryland is one of our Quad 1 wins and we need to keep it that way. Need the Terps to beat a bad Minnesota team.
- Vanderbilt at LSU (Vandy by 2.5) - 7pm on SEC Network - Vandy is a super fascinating team that is just entering the bubble on most sites. They've won 5 games in a row but their NET ranking needs some help (currently at 87) but they do have 4 Quad 1 wins. We're rooting for LSU in this one to keep Vandy on the outside looking in.
- Wake Forest at NC State (NC State by 5.5) - 9pm on ACC Network - Interesting game here. Wake is a team that keeps winning a few in a row and losing a few in a row. They're on the bubble fringe on most sites but a win like this would push them up. We're rooting for the Wolfpack here.
- North Carolina at Notre Dame (UNC by 6.5) - 9pm on ESPN - This is a pretty big one for us. No way around it, Mike Brey's last season at ND has been a rough one. But he could get one last signature win by beating the reigning National Champs. UNC is on the cut line on almost all brackets, and while we want our loss to them to look as good as possible, we don't want them to take our bid either. A loss to the Irish would be a big hit to UNC's chances. I can't bring myself to say it but you know what we want here.
- Iowa at Wisconsin (Iowa by 1) - 9pm on BTN - This is probably the most important game of the night for Michigan, for multiple reasons. There's no way around it, if I were to guess, only one of Michigan or Wisconsin is going to make the tourney, I'm not sure I see a way that we both will without something fluky. We're rooting for the Hawkeyes in this game, although if the Badgers do win, it may push our game with them this weekend to a Quad 2 win (Wisconsin is currently 78 on the NET rankings) and we could jump Iowa in the Big Ten tourney seatings. Lots to consider in this game but I'm rooting for the Hawkeyes.
- New Mexico at Boise State (Boise by 6) - 10:30pm on FS1 - This game is one of those rare Double Bubble games! Most brackets do have Boise State in the tournament but most have New Mexico at the cut line. A loss here likely sends the Lobos down a bit and we can use all the help we can get. Go Boise!
So, there you have it. Lots of opportunities for Michigan to move up the ladder tonight, with obviously the big move tomorrow night.
Until tomorrow, Go Blue!
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
This is great content. The bubble is a stressful affair. Thanks for simplifying it a bit for me.
I think the MGoblog crew should treat this as your writing sample and give you an interview.
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
Appreciate that! Just glad people are finding these helpful :)
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
Thanks. Good to know.
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
[Just one note: Kansas is reigning national champs, UNC lost in the title game].
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
Yes, good catch! Thanks for that.
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
Does Boise play on a blue court?
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^
GO BLUE
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^
I know we're still an extreme longshot to be playing anywhere but the NIT but damn OP these are done so well.
This might be my favorite repeating user post since Swim Lanes. Great job!
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
Wow! What a compliment! Thanks much!
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
It is unlikely but it is not extremely so, imo. I expect this team to win 3 of 4 here to finish the season. They did it last year and I think they are going to pull it off this year too. Only difference between the finishes is that they will need one win in the BTT this year. That first game will not be a game they can drop or they will not be in.
February 22nd, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
Let’s just go 4-4 and take care of it from the drop.
February 22nd, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
Great updates True Blue. I've nominated you for poster of the month.
February 22nd, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
Great stuff. Thanks for throwing this together.
Feels like UNC is mortally wounded with a loss to ND. I know the Irish already took down MSU (by 18!) so they can beat a team like UNC. Also, Clemson is really weird because nearly half of their conference wins (5) have come against ACC teams ranked outside the top 200. In effect, the ACC has a bottom quarter of Minnesotas and they've been able to beat up on them. I'd be surprised if they jumped UM but I guess they can pile up wins.
Would be nice if Iowa pulled off the win in Madison but it's not a gimme. If UM flipped either of those two games to wins they'd be looking quite a bit better for the tourney, and at this point there's no way a Wisconsin win at home is going to help UM's NET rating so knocking them off the bubble is bigger than any resume bump.
February 22nd, 2023 at 4:24 PM ^
I generally root for the Lobos but it's been kind of fun to watch them come back to earth (plummet?) after making a brief appearance in the T25 ealier this season. It might be that he's a Pitino, but no me gusta Richard Pitino.
February 22nd, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
I've been cheering for Pitt to stay in the Top 50 for Q1 scalp purposes, but now that they're #53 NET and flirting with the bubble, starting to believe it's better they fall off completely, as we're now up to #62, and a H2H is close enough to potentially come into play with another Pitt L or two.
February 22nd, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
I think we need them to be good. They are by far our best non-conference win. If they fall off that hurts our résumé.
February 22nd, 2023 at 5:18 PM ^
H2H doesn’t factor into it as much as Q1 and Q2 combined record, road record, SOS. I suppose if you’ve got two teams and they are extremely comparable down the line and the bid comes down to them then the H2H would matter but it just doesn’t seem to come into play all that often.
February 22nd, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
How the heck is Clemson ahead of us on any brackets? You are right though, I look at a couple of bubble watches and Clemson is in there as "Work to do" while Michigan isn't mentioned.
Clemson 19-8 (11-5)
NET - 82
KenPom - 84
SOR - 69
KPI - 65
SOS - 125
NC SOS - 344
Avg NET Win - 176
Avg NET Loss - 149
Q1: 3-3
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 8-3
now Michigan 15-12 (9-7)
NET - 62
KenPom - 49
SOR - 68
KPI - 59
SOS - 35
NC SOS - 147
Avg NET Win - 137
Avg NET Loss - 62
Q1: 3-9 (Pittsburgh will be back up there soon, I'm counting it lol)
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 5-1
Like....outside of overall record Michigan beats them everywhere you look and in many cases significantly. Clemson's overall record is better than Michigan because they've played 11 Q4 games, compared to Michigan playing a combined 9 games in Q3 AND Q4. Broken down a different way, 63% of Clemson's games have been Q3 or Q4 compared to 33% of Michigan's.
This is very similar to Wake Forest last year who a bunch of people had over UM until they faded in the conference tourney. Like I don't understand why any self-respecting bracketologist would look at this data and say Clemson should be on a bubble watch and Michigan should not be.
Any that's my complaint...I completely understand if bracketologists arent ready to put UM in their watches yet. But I would also expect teams with clearly worse resumes (Clemson) or similar resumes (Penn State) to also be excluded.
/rant
February 22nd, 2023 at 6:22 PM ^
Great analysis here, and I agree with basically everything you've mentioned.
The killer this year is the Big 12. Them getting 8 of 10 teams in & just basically having Quad-1 opportunities every night. The Big Ten has certainly gotten the benefit from that in years past. Sadly, it's hurting us this year.
February 22nd, 2023 at 8:01 PM ^
Record still matters a lot to the committee. A 19-8 (11-5) record in a P6 conference "seems" tourney-worthy to them.
February 22nd, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^
Yeah, if you look at the ACC they have 4 Minnesota-level teams (Louisville, GT, FSU, and ND) and so everyone gets to inflate their record off them.
February 22nd, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
I hope to see what Fran does if the Badgers are to be given a free 2 pts and keeping the ball for possession.
He might in fact commit a murder and I'm all for seeing it unfold.
February 22nd, 2023 at 7:56 PM ^
This is front page material. We need to move you on up!! Great stuff.
February 22nd, 2023 at 9:33 PM ^
Really appreciate that!
February 22nd, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^
Bit of a mixed bag in the early window but some interesting results:
- LSU takes down Vandy. That should knock Vandy out of any possible contention without winning the SEC Conference Tournament
- Maryland throttled Minnesota, so they hold serve and will continue to be a Quad-1 win for us.
- Michigan opponent Lipscomb got a nice road win against Florida Gulf Coast. Interestingly enough, before tonight, Lipscomb is 21 spots from moving to a Quad-3. Every little bit counts.
- Kentucky took down Florida on the road. That loss looks better and better by the day.
- Unfortunately, Clemson killed Syracuse, so they will likely stay above us for now.
- Lastly, the shocker of the night. Boston College beat #6 Virginia by 15 points!
Onto the other 4 games to watch tonight!