Vegas has UM finishing behind OSU, Wis, Iowa and PSU (link)
I personally am optimistic about that game @PSU. Newsome and McGloin are both looking
Threeterific(or Gardnerific for the less delusional of us). If Royster goes down they're done.
http://www.betvega.com/ohio-state-is-a-big-favorite-to-win-the-big-10-in-2010-0627101/
...UM has a lot of ground to cover. Team chemistry is a question mark. Leadership is a question mark. Who will be the QB (or will it be a co QB team as it is speculated to be) is a question mark. Here's hoping for a productive August that gets the team to mind meld into a fighting force of hungry ballers who want to shock the world.
This team has a lot to prove.
This actually sounds pretty reasonable. I always wonder how much we in the mgoblog community view this team through rose- (or blue-) colored glasses. We are so focused on every man on our roster and how much improvement has reportedly occurred in the offseason, but you have to think fans of any team who scrutinize their team as much as we do feel the same way over the offseason. I am very optimistic for the 2010 season (to the tune of 8-4), but it seems the general public's view of UM is much lower. As an example of varying insider/outsider viewpoints, this link makes no mention of Denard, who might just be one of the biggest differences on this team this year. I think he would be mentioned within the first 2 sentences of any 2010 preview written by an mgoblogger. But, props to them for saying if anyone can turn UM around it's Rich Rod. Nice to see some public support.
I'm also optimistic to the tune of 8-4. I think it's the nature of fans to get more and more optimistic as the offseason goes along. However, I think we have good reason for optimism.
I like the fact that maybe the national media isn't fully aware of Denard's progress. The memory that the average football fan has of Denard is the interception at the end of the Iowa game and the fact that he doesn't tie his shoelaces. The qb competition is only going to make the team better
With a bowl victory is what I see. I think we're going to see major improvement from the qb position (can't really go wrong with Tate or Denard), as well as the defense. It seems like there aren't many positions that are locks for certain players, so the players that are on the field are going to be the one's who earned it. Please though, average defense is all I'm asking for!
While I am entirely optimistic about 2010, I think you are overstating the situation a bit with "can't really go wrong with Tate or Denard." I hope this is the case, but both have a lot to prove.
What I meant was that no matter who starts, they'll be an improvement over last year, assuming both of them don't get injured at the same time.
good god... tate was so raw.
that I can not disagree with this article.
Like most fanbases, we probably overrate our stars more than the average sports fan, but with our background knowledge we also probably identify good under-the-radar guys better than the national media. Overall, most realistic fans would be happy with 8-4, 7-5 with the right wins and some real progress. The MLive and Freep trolls will certainly bitch, but going something like 10-2 is a longshot.
Not surprising at all. I was surprised that Illinois was given the same odds as Purdue and NW, until I saw that they don't play Iowa or Wisconsin. But I still think NW should have a better chance, since they don't play OSU. And Purdue doesn't get Iowa or PSU. In terms of talent, I think Illinois is 10th best in the B10, but they do have a very easy schedule.
Bucks and Badgers are, imo, clearly the class of the league. After that it's a toss-up. I think Iowa is hugely overrated. Yes, they have a system that allows for "reloading" (if that's what you want to call it), but in 2009 they were a) extremely lucky, b) won a lot of close games against lesser teams (No. Iowa, Ark. St., M, MSU, IU, Minn), c) lost at home to Northwestern and d) had over a month to prepare for a one-dimensional attack and horrendous defensive team in Ga. Tech.
I think we finish anywhere from 3rd (and maybe 2nd if we can upset Wiscy at home) to 7th/8th. Only the game at O-state is "unwinnable." (Of course, anything can happen and if we're 10-1 or 11-0 going into that game, then it becomes very winnable.)
National pundits seem to be ignoring the fact that the Big House is now a hostile environment b/c of the increased noise due to the stadium renovations, and that our road schedule is:
- at ND (rebuilding)
- at Indiana (our offense is loaded and their defense is extremely suspect; I expect us to put up 50 in that game)
- at Penn State (new OL, no QB)
- at Purdue (weak and we owe them a beat down)
- at O-state (well, you know...)
Agreed, I think we finish better than PSU even if we lose the head to head (which I personally think we'll win hence my gamble to road trip to Happy Valley with my wife who is a huge PSU fan).
OSU will be tough but do-able as our offense should be much better, especially in the red zone, and I don't know that their defense can be better than last year since it was pretty amazing, they may have peaked. Their O will be better depending on how Herron and Pryor perform but our sieve-like defense last year played them pretty tight and we should be better on defense overall this year.
I don't know that we can stop the Badgers for 4 quarters but I also don't know if their defense will be able to stop us this year plus we can't underestimate the benefit of playing them outside of Camp Randall.
National pundits seem to be ignoring the fact that the Big House is now a hostile environment b/c of the increased noise due to the stadium renovations
The structures were up last year, so it's not going to be anymore hostile than a year ago and we all know how that turned out.
Let's not overrate sound as a reason we will win games.
Except this year the fans are going to have something to cheer about past the first 4 games.
...the fact there will be thousands more fans yelling from those new structures as well.
And I'll be yelling from my house too!
...you should know how much a factor the noise can be. It was the loudest the stadium has ever been. The biggest home game after that was Penn State, and the crowd was taken out of the game by halftime.
Sound isn't a reason, but if the loudness of a crowd is a factor, then this is as big as this factor has ever been.
Do you think sound was a factor in the loss at Oregon in 2003? If you don't you're kidding yourself.
Sound was a factor in the ND game, but it wasn't in other games b/c the games were either lackluster (IU, Baby Seals, Purdue), over quickly (PSU), or taken over by opposing fans (OSU).
Furthermore, I don't see how my statement "overrates" sound as a factor. When a mediocre team loses to a good team, I don't see how "crowd noise isn't a factor" is a logical conclusion. The logical conclusion is that the game was a mis-match. Now, if the competition is closely matched, e.g. M-ND, then crowd noise is a factor. I expect us to be a lot closer to our competition this year.
If you don't, then yes, crowd noise won't help us one bit.
The Big House definitely seems louder, but during big games, even before the renovation, the place wasn't exactly like the reading room in the law library. I remember when we beat PSU on the last play a few years back...pretty damned loud, if you ask me.
With all due respect to last years ND game, it was a case of last man standing...we couldn't stop them any better than they could stop us. And yes indeed, it was as loud as I can ever remember.
Teams in major conferences learn how to deal with noise...half of their big games are played in "enemy territory" which are rarely quiet.
As far as our record goes this year....I am tired of predicting. Better to be pleasantly surprised than to have a redo of the last few years.
Agree on Iowa. I think a lot of "analysts" see Stanzi is returning to a team that did well last year and automatically chalk them up as league favorite without considering the reasons you list plus the 6 players lost in the draft, one of whom was Stanzi's favorite target.
and OSU is done unless they plan on winning a lot of games kicking FGs. I wish we got Penn State a little earlier in the season with their current QB season as they should at least have figured out a starter by the time our game rolls around. Wisconsin should be a major task, but I hold out hope as we did beat them in 2008 at the Big House behind the rumbling, bumbling Steven Threet (what a run).
The key to this 2010 is getting off to quick start and building confidence. I know we started 4-0 last year, but we also had lost Molk and Tate had hurt his shoulder. IMO if we get by UConn and ND we can start 7-0 and then it's anybody's guess at the final record.
If we do get off to that type of start watch the recruiting flood gates open and the Big 10 better watch out.
I agree that losing TP would put an end to any MNC title shot for OSU, but that team is still loaded on both sides of the ball, and Tressel would just revent to his usual gameplan of running the ball and playing for field position. I mean, he won an MNC with Craig Krenzel at QB. As much as I hate to say it, Tressel is great at winning with mediocre offensive talent.
Although I do not like the sweatervest, his 8 or 9 years as their coach has been amazing for OSU and he is a great coach, but to say he has only had mediocre offensive talent is not a fair statement. Since Tressel has been there, he has had great talent on both sides of the ball. How he has chosen to use that talent (very conservatively IMHO) is what makes it seems like he has had mediocre talent.
Either way the guy wins a lot and I hope that stops soon.
I agree that his conservative approach has hindered his player's offensive production somewhat, but I will counter that if you look at the number of players at OSU during his tenure that became good pro players (ignoring offensive linemen, which have been pretty good), you don't see a factory like you do on the defensive side. The guys he recruits all look great on paper and some become really good pro players (heck, Santonio Holmes was SB MVP), but he has produced far more defensive stars than offensive playmakers. Whether that is a product of his scheme or his recruiting, he has won without blowing the doors off teams offensively outside of Troy Smith's Heisman year.
I totally agree with OSU and Wiscy ahead, and either Iowa or PSU will probably have another good year but not both (my money is on Iowa). I actually think MSU could finish with the same record (or even a game better than) UM, given that they have some depth offensively and defensively. That said, their trajectory will probably be petering out as the year ends, while I expect UM to be improving. Still, 4th-5th in the Big 10 sounds about right for next year's team.
They lost 3 fifth year starters from the O line, both FBs, and their top WR on O and most of their seconday, a LB, and their top pass rusher on D. I question their depth.
They have a couple of RBs returning, still have Cunningham and Dell at WR (provided nobody misses much real time due to the off-season legal issues), a decent QB, and Greg Jones (a pre-season All-American) on defense. Yes, the offensive line is certainly going to take a hit, but they still have good OL in Young and Foreman, and I'll agree that the secondary is in very thin, but then again there is a strong chance that UM will be starting at least one walk-on in our secondary this year. Their defeinsve line is weak, but their linebackers are pretty good (not just Jones, but Gordon is a pretty good senior LB), so the thinness of the line might not be as big of an issue.
I'm not saying MSU is going to be great this year, but I'm trying to be realistic here - MSU has not suffered the massive attrition that RR has, so the team has actual depth with decent, experienced players on both sides of the ball. UM probably has better players on a per-talent basis, but as we saw last year, if the starters falter the drop off (esp on defense) is troubling.
I'm pessimistic about Penn State this year, but overall, the odds seem pretty reasonable. It's just great to not have a first year QB/walk-on QB starting.
I admit, I am a homer. But I think it's probable that we start out 6-0. From there things to me are a toss up. Iowa is tough, but beatable. PSU's defense is going to be good , but their offense is questionable. We should be delivering punishment to ILL. and Purdue. Then we have Wisconsin, who is always beatable because they usually don't score that much, and they play a slow game. I don't expect to win against OSU in the horseshoe. I do however expect that we win 9 or 10 games, and RR be the coach of the year. Lastly, fuck Vegas for their opinion.
I will disagree with you on Wisconsin. They will likely have one of the top offenses in the conference, and maybe even the country, as they did last year.
I agree. Tolzein will be pretty good and Clay is a monster. Their WRs and TEs are good, and they might have the best OLine in the country.
I do however expect that we win 9 or 10 games
We're more likely to win 4 than 10. We need a defense to win 10 games, and besides, this is one of the best years for upper-level conference strength in years. If we can win one against Iowa, Wisconsin, or Ohio State, I will be very surprised. Penn State and UConn are probably better than we are (PSU definitely is). Michigan State and Notre Dame are not going to be easy at all either. I wish we could go 10-2, but seriously, we should be looking at 7-5. As for it being probable that we start 6-0, that's more than just homerism. It could happen, but by no means is it probable.
It's been a tough few years. Terry Hawthorne made me lose all hope.
Its understandable. I hope we can get back to the old Michigan in which it is at least probable that we can win every game.
Agreed. I hope it's more of a Michigan 2.0 where we run over teams and don't stop. Beating Illinois, Purdue, MSU etc. 63-0 is much better than winning 27-14.
I'm pretty sure that 7-5 is Brian's published expectation. Sadly, I don't think it is far off--nor is it cynical. If Michigan finishes at 8-4 I will be ecstatic. That record for Michigan won't elicit from me ecstasy every year, but in 2010 it sure as hell will.
stays in Vegas.
Good. Our team is much better when people underestimate us.
If we finish fifth in the Big Ten, we're probably looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of an 8-4 season with a respectable bowl bid. Would certainly be a step in the right direction. Ohio State and Wisconsin are the class of the conference. Iowa will still be strong. I'm not quite as certain about Penn State though.
Our team will be more fundamentally sound in terms of developing the knowledge and skills to run RR's system, and more resilient in terms of actually having some depth. Thus, one of the changes this year will be a higher baseline of performance. But we are still young, so there will be some (good and bad) surprises.
Accounting for the mercurial nature of college football, this year we will win all but one of the games we predictably should, we will win some of the toss ups, and we win at least one we predictably should not. We will beat UConn and ND, we will beat either PSU or MSU (or both), and we will win at least one of the games against the big three (OSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin). 9-4 season.
I'm coming around on Penn State a little. I know they're O-line was a disappointment during spring practice but, they're only losing 2 guys and they have a bunch of solid o-line recruits waiting in the wings. If we're counting on Omameh and Lewan to be stealth monsters, I'd imagine that PSU has a couple of guys they think can do the same. One of their guys (Troutman) has extensive starting experience even though he wasn't a starter last year and another one (Pannell, I think) was playing a different position in the spring. They'll be down but I don't think they'll be a heap of trash either.
As for QB, neither Robert Bolden nor Paul Jones were on campus yet, AFAIK. With all due respect to McGloin, I wonder how hard Newsome was being pushed in practice. As unlikely as I think that PSU would start a true freshman at QB, I also think it's unlikely that they would leave their best option on the bench merely because he's a freshmen. I have to think one of those 3 would emerge as a not terrible player for them this year.
Their defense lost some ballers to the draft, that's where I think they slip the most. But then, again, they've recruited like mofos so who knows if they have a Roh or Martin primed for a shot at early PT.
Their schedule is brutal. I don't think there's any way they hang @ Alabama (week 2) or @ Ohio State. (Novemeber). Beyond that I think they could lose two of the following four games : @Iowa, Mich., NW, MSU.
IMO Penn State actually lucked out in their conference schedule for 2010. Looking at their schedule I predict PSU will finish 8-4 or 9-3 with losses to Bama, Iowa and OSU almost certain and possibly a loss to MSU, UM or NW in Happy Valley.
If PSU's conference schedule had been flipped (away games become home games and vice versa) they probably would have finished between 6-6 and 8-4 as the likely losses would have now been Bama, Iowa, OSU, and at least one, probably two, of the away games at UM, NW and MSU.
Here we have some guy named "Mike Rose" saying, "This is probably the last chance for HC Rich Rodriguez to impress Big Blue Nation before a change is made." Leaving aside the fact that David Brandon is the one person RR needs to impress, Michigan is NOT "Big Blue" Anything!
If many Wolverine fans are annoyed by this, imagine how Kentucky fans feel. (Not that I care.)
Leaving aside the fact that David Brandon is the one person RR needs to impress,
While this is true, Brandon's criteria for being impressed are not based on RR's sartorial choices, wine preferences, or his ability to tell a good joke or carry on a good conversation. In other words, Brandon's being 'impressed' is based on wins, revenue, potential, UM culture, and whatever standard Brandon wants to set for baseline coaching tenure. He will also give a big ear to to MSC, and a smaller one to boosters, and - that's right - the press. Whether RR impresses Brandon or not goes beyond Brandon himself.
1. The odds are only a reflection of, with apologies to Yogi Berra, what the oddsmakers think the public thinks. They aren't really predicting where the teams will finish, but only trying to even up the betting.
2. Rose did call Michigan his "best ROI" pick, so he has some respect for the maize and blue, or at least acknowledges the possibility of them somehow winning the conference.
This is reasonable.