Updated Opponent Watch Post Week 1

Submitted by alum96 on

Some quick thoughts on future opponents after getting some glimpses in week 1.  Normal caveats apply i.e. level of opponents, reading too much in 1 week, improvement from week 1 to 2.  I didn't watch every game but the ones I didn't a quick scan through the box score leads to some comments.

  • Notre Dame - Golson looks much improved as it would be expected.  Didn't watch the whole game but ND's offense today reminds me of a 2010/2011 type UM offense.  High risk/high reward plays - which often work against overmatched opponents but lead to less success against better teams.  Golson is not the runner Denard was but you just need to have escapability to be a thorn in the side.  ND had a lot of explosive plays in between some slogging.   Rice is not a garbage team but not a great team - impossible to determine ND's defense but for a program under spotlight and turmoil it was a good performance.  Expecting a great matchup next week.
  • Miami (OH) - it doesnt matter.  Was one of the bottom 5 teams in the nation last year.
  • Utah - The Utes destroyed the mighty Idaho State Bengals.  Who last year lost 56-0  to Washington.  With a game against Fresno St next week (who were destroyed by USC) and then a bye week Utah is going to roll in to Michigan Stadium as a big mystery.  We won't learn anything from their first 2 games.
  • Minnesota - EIU self detonated with lots of turnovers despite moving the ball decently.  EIU scored all their points in the 4th against what I presume to be Minnesota scrubs. Berkley Edwards had some nice runs, as did David Cobb.  Mitch Leidner was Mitch Leidner... a mid level MAC QB with his arm.  Defense created turnovers but gave up some yards in the air; run defense seemed stout - again adjust for opponent. 
  • Rutgers - go Big 10!  A bit of a surprise going out West and beating a mediocre WSU...as Rutgers is likewise mediocre.  But with the Big 10's lack of success on the OOC trips to the Pac 12 over the decades I won't devalue any win out there.  Offense is as expected, a very nice RB and a QB who... well... he is a senior.  WSU was a .500 team last year but was destroyed by top end competition while beating the Rich Rods, and USC and then a lot of bad teams.  So congrats to Rutgers - UM's talent should overwhelm if we have our heads on straight.  Expect our defense to focus on taking away their run and let our corners have fun with their QB.
  • PSU - Hackenberg.  Damn.  Beast mode.  Allen Robinson? Who cares.  May I introduce you to Geno Lewis and DaeSean Hamilton - both over 160 yards receiving.  Oh and the 3rd WR had 7 catches as well.  PSU OL was positively "2012 Michigan-ish" and despite some quality backs very little was created on the ground.  UCF was incredibly challenged on offense through a half before settling on a QB in the 2nd and challenging PSU's defense.  This game is going to be all about our air defense.  With Hackenberg until the clock is 0:00 you will feel like they can score points.  If their OL develops in 2015 they could be a scary offense but for this year - hopefully they remain 1 dimensional.
  • MSU - impressive open versus a bad opponent.  Cook was on fire - amazing transformation in 12 months, they have a bevy of big bodies WRs to throw to.  Going to be a big challenge for our secondary.  The running game on the other hand was not super cool.  They got yards but not that push like last year and suffered an OL injury which may carry over - Dantonio won't divulge obviously.  Defense was interesting - one continues to marvel at their run defense, it was amazing even accounting for opponent.  The 1st team defense simply does not allow you to run on them as they stuff the box.  There WERE opportunities through the air and over the top of the safeties but it requires a competent QB, something JSU lacked.  Second half was completely useless info as a bunch of backups played.  I expect them to slash Oregon in the air - but will their run game work.  And will their secondary clean up their issues versus a very good QB. Will be interesting to see if Oregon can run on MSU as well.  Should be a very interesting game.
  • Indiana - funny box score actually.  Indiana beat a light weight but not by that much.  And instead of an air raid they went run crazy.  Sudfeld threw 18 passes.  No not in the first quarter...the entire game.   Tevin Coleman went off for 247 on the ground and another dude named Roberts for 129.   We'll get a better read on Indiana when they face Missouri in a few weeks.
  • Northwestern - disappointing.  Unless Cal is much improved from last year when OSU went in there and made them look like a HS team...that was a bad game for NW.  Even with the recent losses of personnel.  Northwestern brings in a very solid Northern Illinois program (no home field advanage eh?) next week and that could be a significant loss if things dont change quickly.  NW has a BRUTAL schedule early (@ PSU, Wisc, @Minn, Nebraska, @Iowa) - on paper they could lose all 5 of those or even if its 2-3 they could be demoralized by the time UM shows up.
  • Maryland - also not as expected.  See Indiana.  Tons of production on the ground, not much in the air.  CJ Brown - their starting QB - was not that great.  Backup Caleb Rowe looked a lot better at least via the box score.  Maryland plays a spirited West Virginia in 2 weeks who gave Alabama a very good game; should tell us more.
  • OSU - not going to knock them for going into a solid Navy team and winning late.  They suffered a key QB loss and 1st time starter is going to struggle - and these armed forces teams have wacky offenses difficult to prepare for.  Going to be a few weeks to get a good read on them.

 

Overall - on paper UM should have clear talent advantage on all but 3 of these opponents. OSU can't really evaluate at this time what their offense will be, check back in 4 games.  MSU looks the part (athletic, fast) and has a big test out in Oregon next week - after that won't be tested until Nebraska.  Indiana and Maryland were confusing on how they won - both featured healthy ground games rather than passing attacks we all expect.  Northwestern game seems a lot easier today than it did Friday - if they lose to NIU the season could spin out of control fast.   Rutgers is basically a poor man's Minnesota.   Minnesota is a team UM should handle as it is 1 dimensional.  Utah who knows.  Our DL and secondary need to step up big vs PSU.  Give Hackenberg time and he will demoralize. 

reshp1

August 31st, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^

Minnesota looked attrocious. E Illinois actually had more total offense than they did for the game. E IL just kept setting Minnesota up with great field position with some attrocious mistakes. Minnesota could easily have lost to this team if E IL was even remotely competent about silly mistakes and penalties.

alum96

August 31st, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^

Leidner gonna Leidner.  Run defense was good by Minnesota vs what was a very good team last year (who lost its QB to the draft).  From what I read they brought in an experienced transfer and he had some decent yardage vs Minnesota but yes turnovers killed - one inside their own 10, and one inside Minnesota's 10.  EIU looks like a team that is generally pretty solid for FCS and then due to their QB was really good last year so the competition was probably better than what we had or MSU had.  Again it is Minnesota - they are going to try to run it down your throat all day and play decent defense and be opportunistic so as far as what Minnesota does - they did it.  EIU scored with 27 seconds left so it was still Minn 42 - EIU 14 with 30 seconds in the game despite Minnesota being meh.  Granted Minn scored a lot late too.   First half was pretty ugly on both sides.

RockinLoud

August 31st, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^

Re: MSU vs Oregon

What's the one team in the B1G that's given MSU's defense consistent problems? Nebraska. They run a weird hurry up option based offense with speedy RB's and WR's that can stretch the D all directions.  While I'm not privy on the nuances of either team, Oregon seems to run a similar offense and I expect them to hit some big plays against Sparty if their secondary plays like they did against JSU.  Should be a very interesting game!

alum96

August 31st, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^

Think it is going to be a high scoring affair.  Apparently Oregon's LBs were pretty bad versus a terrible opponent yesterday and their All American CB twisted his ankle in the 2nd quarter.  JSU started the game trying to do the Brian Kelly plan, throw it long and deep to the sidelines and there were opportunities but this strategy requires WRs and a good QB - something Oregon has, so I expect both teams to light it up.  I could see this something like 42-33.

LSAClassOf2000

August 31st, 2014 at 2:57 PM ^

The defensive performance of Oregon was "meh" - 370 yards against a team that probably would be completely stifled by other defenses. Actually, the Coyotes ran a few more plays than the Ducks did, so even the tempo of Oregon can be overcome if you can manage over 70 offensive snaps per game (South Dakota ran 73 snaps). It turns out to be an average of 5.06 yards allowed by Oregon.

ypsituckyboy

August 31st, 2014 at 1:53 PM ^

UCF would've won that game if Holman had played the entire game. That offense went from night to day when he replaced DiNovo. The talent difference between the two QB's was pretty stark, so it seems pretty crazy that the coaches, even after a full offseason of practices, somehow thought DiNovo should get the nod. 

m1jjb00

August 31st, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^

the West Division looks bad with only Nebraska taking care of business.

Wisconsin is 1 dimensional on offense (1/2 dimensional if Gordon is out.)  Losing two defensive linemen kills them.  McEvoy throws like Taylor Martinez without having his talent or an offense built around his running abilities.  Wisconsin is going to have to go some sort of option offense, or it's going to be a very long year.  Might be a long year anyway.  Don't get excited about holding LSU close.  LSU is overrated too.

Nebraksa -- as noted took care of business while getting a highlight-reel catch.

Iowa -- Hmm,.  Beat Northern Iowa by 8 with the game within reach through most of the game and winning turnovers 2-0.   Was even in yards.  Less than inspiring.

Minnesota -- Meh.

Illinois -- Beat Youngstown State by 11, while losing yardage battle and gaining only 78 yards net on the ground.  Lunt is probably your 5th or 6th best QB in the Big Ten.

Pudue -- Was up on Western by 3 half way through the 4th quarter.  Lost yardage battle by 49 yards, while only outgaining WMU on the ground by 13 yards.

Northwestern -- Yeesh.  Good for them to fight back, but they got beat by Cal fair & square.  I thought they'd be better.

charblue.

August 31st, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^

He is poised with the mechanics and style you want to see in a pure pocket passer with ability to make all the throws. We already know he doesn't wilt under pressure or last minute deficits with the game on the line. He just finds a way to make plays. The fact that the rest of his team is not as mature, developed or talented as him is the only thing that prevents Penn State from challenging for the title this year. Winning that first game will give his team confidence going forward. 

pinkfloyd2000

August 31st, 2014 at 4:19 PM ^

Yes, (one of) my alma maters...

Simply awful last year. However, there's a new coach/new regime in place this season, and they already look to be MUCH improved. Sure, the final score was kinda ugly vs. Marshall, but 27 points, well...I'm not sure they totalled that in the last six games last season. They held their own and didn't lie down vs. a tough opponent, for the most part.

You might remember the starting Miami QB from such teams as...Notre Dame: Andrew Hendrix.

I'm not going to call for an upset, by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami keep it (relatively) close for a while.

Bobby Boucher

August 31st, 2014 at 8:25 PM ^

I learned last season not to put too much emphasis in everyone's opening game.  Last year we came out of the gate swinging and ended with disappointment.  MSU looked very beatible in their opener last year and ended up Rose Bowl champs.  

Just saying...