UM Basketball - The Road Ahead
Saturday was fun, right? Never have I gone from happy drunk-ish to angry drunk-ish in that short of a window. The really ugly part is that you could see it coming a mile away. The movement stops, Dickinson's post ups start in weird spots for him, we don't get into anything until there is like 8 on the shot clock. It has happened like 5 times this year, starting in about the same part of the game. Gross.
Anyway, life goes on. And while it felt like it at the time, the loss does not change that much about what was needed from Michigan before the game started. It made the path harder for sure, but the path is really the same, it just changes the location of where we need to beat Indiana. Michigan v. Indiana play each other again on the last day of the regular season, and for whatever reason Michigan has been dominant at Assembly Hall over the last 7-8 seasons.
I think Michigan needs 4-2, with a BTT win.
What's to come:
@ Wisconsin - 9PM Wend. - Is it good that they are coming off a 10 point loss to Nebraska, or bad? It is good because "ya'll lost to Nebraska by ten? For real?" It is bad because Wisconsin, while safely a tournament team right now, is also not that far away from not being one, so we get Wisconsin in must-win mode. Michigan has a "puncher's chance." Hopefully we don't get slapped around around at the Troll Center again. Would like to claw out of here with a win.
Michigan State - 2/18 8:00 PM - I like Michigan here. Michigan and MSU are comfortably trading home wins right now, and they seem to be content doing it.
@ Rutgers - 2/22 8:30 PM - In the first of Michigan's first road losses last year that ended with players being escorted by the floor by security, Michigan goes to The Rac. The desperation level of this game is going to depend a lot on the outcome of the first Wisconsin game. Could be a do or die.
Wisconsin 2/28 6:00 PM - Death to Backboards
@ Illinois - 2/2 9 PM - Illinois is finally without 295 of utter-BOSS who somehow makes all of his free-throws, but boy there are still formidable. 9 PM at fake-Assembly Hall seems like a tall order. If there is one game on the schedule that I am pretty sure Michigan is going to lose it is this one.
@ Indiana - 3/5 4:30 PM - I feel like this is either going to be a game where I am glued to the TV gasping at everything that takes place or that I am not even going to be watching it. Could be for all the marbles, could just be one final march toward doom.
This is a brutal stretch of games to be entering in the position Michigan is at. I have not lost all hope though. I truly do feel like their best basketball is still in front of them at some point this season. I just hope it still matters when it comes.
Go Blue.
February 13th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
You are right in that they will need to go 4-2 down the stretch. Both Wisconsin and Michigan are playing for their tournament lives Wednesday night.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
They play Wisconsin Tuesday night, not Wednesday. Not correcting you but OP’s post is wrong.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
My bad. Have to say I like the Tuesday tip better.
February 13th, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^
No prob. Didn’t want you to miss it!
February 13th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
Michigan went from tied for 2nd in the B1G with Northwestern at 9-5 to tied for 5th with 5 other teams. If tourney seeding was factored in, Michigan lost the double bye because of, among many other things, a horrible end-of-game play. Just horrendous. They've had so many opportunities this season to actually show out and have failed every time.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
True. They are not out of opportunities yet, though. And on the march toward the bubble, sometimes there are losses that feel like the nail in the coffin that turn out not to be. The aforementioned Death to Backboards being one of them.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
This is a difficult remaining schedule. But each game is an opportunity for a valuable win.
#analysis
February 13th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
The road ahead:
February 13th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
I-75 at McNichols?
February 13th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
I like your optimism in that picture. Looking at that image through the lens of this season makes me feel as though there are landmines hidden in the potholes and probably a Big Foot or two hiding in the roadside brush.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
Make the tournament or don’t, the season isn’t going to feel good. Many questions will remain around the off-season and Juwan and the staff need to improve this team. For the players I hope there is some way forward to making the tourney but otherwise the season has reached the “boy I hope next year isn’t like this year” stage
February 13th, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
There was going to come a time when Juwan was going to have to do a mini-rebuild. His first couple of years he was coaching a hybrid of JB's players and his ideas. Who decides to return is going to make a huge difference for this program for next year. None of the Howard kids are hurting for money, and while I could see Jett wanting to begin his own path, I could also see him coming back for another year with his dad. Bufkin has made huge gains but he is not ready. Reed is going to be a really nice building block (and should be playing more right now). Dickinson really has nowhere to go but Europe so I could see him doing it again, but it is starting to feel like his presence is beginning to sour a bit.
One thing is for sure, it is the perfect time to have a good combo guard coming in and I am excited to see what GW3 is going to bring.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
I think it's honestly going to come down more to the transfer portal TBH. Like, yea, I'm also looking forward to what GW3 can do but I also know we've been pretty disappointed lately with true freshmen and expecting them to make an immediate impact.
It was pretty hard to watch what Hood-Schifino looks like vs. what Dug looks like....
February 13th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Yea GW3 seems like a nice player, but counting on him to come in and be a quality starter in year 1 is not wise. This team will likely need to add 2-3 instant starters, which means they will have to be all in on the portal, which as we know can be a total crap shoot. A shit-ton of stuff will have to go our way for this to be a tourney team next year.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
This is a little hike up Mt Everest. It seems like Michigan's path to the Dance resembles it.
Can they make it? Technically, yes. There are a number of teams in front of them. It's going to be a challenge - especially the last two regular conference games on the road.
I'll be cheering for them.
Go Blue!
February 13th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
Interesting tidbit. That looks like the Hillary Step. It is my understanding that that does not exist anymore and is not nearly vertical any longer. Apparently it has become an easier climb, but everything is relative.
February 13th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
I had read in a couple of places that climbing Everest has its "waiting in line at the DMV" days.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
At this point, I think the most realistic road to the tournament is winning the BTT. Figuring out a way to get a double bye definitely makes that easier. If you want to go down a rabbit hole on BTT seeding possibilities, check this link out.
Ultimately, the team just isn't that good. It makes me kind of laugh to think back to how foolish we (myself included) were when we downplayed losing Houstan, Diabate, and Collins. This team would be so much better with those guys. I think there was even an mgotake that the team would be better off with Williams getting more minutes at the 4 without Diabate. Yikes.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
I don't think it was that the team would be better with more Williams and less Diabate, I think it was more discussed that Dickinson and Diabate did not really compliment each other.
Frankly I never really thought that losing all three of those guys was anything less than disaster. It was more that I expected Llewen to be at least kind of good and he is out for the season anyway and I thought Hunter had another gear.
It you would have told me at the beginning of the season that Jett and Bufkin would be as good as they are I would have thought the team was in good shape.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
That's fair. I agree that Dickinson and Diabate didn't work all that well on the floor at the same time. To me, Diabate is the one who we could most afford to lose. I think a starting five of Collins, Bufkin, Jett, Houstan, and Dickinson would be in a MUCH better spot. That would have allowed Llewelynn to ease into this level of competition, let Williams be a 7-10 minute a game energy guy, let Dug ease into it. So it goes...
February 13th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Less Williams, more Cheddar and Reed.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
After Llewelyn went down, it was going to take a while for this team to learn how to win due to the youth of the guards. The Indiana game showed they are still not ready and time has almost run out on this season. I'm guessing they close out 3-3 or 2-4 with maybe one win in the BTT. That won't get them into the tourney. I'll be cheering them on none-the-less.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
So that would end up being a record of 19-14 (12-8), with 1-1 in conference tournament. With something like 3-11 in Q1 games and 6-1 in Q4.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
Yes. My guess is they would be First Four.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
Honestly, that's basically a first four resume and not all that surprising. Last year ND was 3-11 in Quad 1 games, Rutgers was 5-10, IU 2-12, and Wyoming 0-4. You're mostly arguing about bad teams at that point.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
Yeah I don't remember last year having a significant number of bid stealers. But yeah it'll be tight. You could end up like Texas A&M.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
The fickle game of basketball... One possession goes differently and we are on here crowing how they are the second place team in the Big Ten. This team is close... Real close... not sure what that means in this years Big Ten but they have been super competitive just have not closed out games worth a darn all season. A month ago I was off the Howard wagon and just felt indifferent about the team. Since that time I have witnessed growth. Dugie is coming, Jett is a spectacular talent, Reed is coming, and Bufkin has made a true sophomore leap all season long. That is the growth I am referring to and its noticeable and has even gotten me to tune back in.
The concerning: Dickinson went form All-American to maybe not All Big Ten, We continue to play Williams when there clearly looks like better options available. Outside of Dump in deep to Hunter we have nothing go to for these late game situations. Indiana did a great job of making that nearly impossible late. If that is the case there has to be something available to go to. Coaches need to emphasize that and likely are! I was really happy to see them put the ball in Bufkins hands at the end. I think him or Jett have to be your playmakers currently. If Jett doesn't come back I have no clue how this team is better next year. If he does I could see us playing in the top of the Big Ten easily.
Lets hope we finish strong and make a tournament appearance this squad needs it!
February 13th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
The dreaded double post strikes again ...
February 13th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
I think Michigan's non BTT chances have expired with the loss to IU. The @WI and MSU games are toss-ups. No way they win at Rutgers. Should win at home v WI. No way they win @ILL or @IND.
And so that, IMO, means we close out the final 6 at 2-4. Which leaves us at 10-10 in the Big10. That doesn't make us a bad team, just an average team.
Anything can happen in the BTT. I could see Michigan losing their first game to Maryland (or any number of other average teams they might play) or making it to the final. However I have seen nothing from Michigan this year that makes me think they could win 3 or 4 tough games in a row and so the former seems more likely than the latter.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
With that projection, their non-BTT tournament chances expired before the Indiana game even began.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
Saturday was not fun.
They will lose all remaining road games.
They will lose the BTT opener.
They will finish 16-16 and decline a CBI invite.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
No way. They are getting better. They will have a lot more fight than that.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
After the loss to Indiana on Saturday, my Maize and Blue dobbers are down. This next game is crucial because they need a win to gain confidence to play sparty.
It is a very tough remainder of the regular season schedule. Getting two wins this week is critical.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
I don't think this team has much of a chance of making the tourney but I also think they're "due" for one of those late-game wins and it may well come against a team like Rutgers or Wisconsin. Both of those teams feel beatable on the road and who knows with IU? They got some luck to even win that game in Ann Arbor and Michigan can absolutely hang with with them. I have 0 belief that UM can beat Illinois because they just seem like a bad matchup for Michigan.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Please fire Howard and bring the John B back, Santa that’s all I want for X-Mas this year.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
Forget it. It's over. This team won't be dancing this year. What is even more worrying, is what this team will look like assuming Jett and Hunter move on. This could be the most important off season for Juwan in his tenure, and he has a lot of things stacked against him.
February 13th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
HD isn't going anywhere. He will make alot more money in Ann Arbor than somewhere overseas. Milk this NIL then move on is the move.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
I’d love to be wrong, but I think it’s more likely we go 1-5 against this schedule than the 4-2 we probably need to get on the bubble. We stink on the road and that game at home against Sparty is no gimme.
February 13th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
Not sure 4-2 with 1 btt win gets it done. 12-8 is cute but its a very down year for the big10. They simply didn't do anything in preseason except lose to CMU.
Has a 12-8 big ten record ever not gotten in to the big dance?
February 13th, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^
They are TOAST this has been the Most disappointing M BB team in 30 years and nobody to blame but themselves what a DISSAPOINTMENT
February 13th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
Not getting my hopes up...but I will be watching.
February 13th, 2023 at 6:09 PM ^
Unfortunately, it looks like the road ahead zig zags up, then down, then up again; then it goes in a straight line, and ends in a T.