Tourney hopes simplified

Submitted by cypress on
I could be wrong on this but it appears the scenarios for getting a bid is pretty simple. If we lose to MSU, we are out unless we win the BTT. If we win, we will be either the 4 or 5 seed in the BTT. The only scenario where we would be 6th at 9-9 is if Illinois and PSU win out. UI would have to beat Purdue, PSU would have to beat OSU and Minny. So it's likely we would be the 4 or 5. Win that game, we are in. Lose, and we hold our breath. So let's start with Sparty.

James Burrill Angell

March 1st, 2011 at 1:09 PM ^

If we win we're a 5 seed as State (assuming they beat Iowa), us and Illinois would be tied and we both have tie-breaker on MSU and Illinois has it on us so the seeds would be Illinois #4, M #5, MSU #6.

I think its simple. Win Saturday but lose first round of the BTTourney and we're 50/50 and waiting for other results to likely be in the play in game if at all.

Win Saturday and first round of the BT Tourney and we're a lock to go dancing.

Bosch

March 1st, 2011 at 1:11 PM ^

for PSU to split their last two games.  They beat Minn once this year and I don't see why they couldn't again.

If there ends up being a four way tie for 4th place, Michigan would get the 4 seed because of the tie break (overall head to head vs other 3).

cypress

March 1st, 2011 at 11:18 AM ^

Being the 5 seed *might* be enough to get us in with a loss to Illinois, but it would be close. Man, that Wiscy game is haunting us.

jtmc33

March 1st, 2011 at 12:59 PM ^

"Man, that Wiscy (or Kansas, or Illinois, or OSU at home, or OSU on the road, or IU on the road, or Nw on the road) game is hauting us."

Any one of those games goes the other way, with a home win Saturday, and we'd be a lock before the BTT even starts.

Balls. 

wlubd

March 1st, 2011 at 11:25 AM ^

In the case that this fool-proof scenario doesn't work out, here is everyone's rooting guide for today:

Florida over Alabama-Would prefer to cheer for neither but we desperately need Bama to lose.

Okie State over Baylor

Purdue over Illinois

Gardner-Webb over Coastal Carolina

Illinois-Chicago over Cleveland State

Missouri over Nebraska

VT over Boston College

Discussion open on OSU-PSU. A PSU win makes our 2 wins look much better but they're already ahead of us in RPI and SOS with a similar record. Our sweep should counter that, but that involves the committee actually having a brain and I don't know if that's the case or not.

Trebor

March 1st, 2011 at 11:39 AM ^

I think we should be rooting for PSU to lose. They have a win over Wisconsin already in their pocket, and a win over OSU might push them over us in the seeding. I'd rather have the fellow bubble teams lose as many games as they can, especially when they're playing the #1 team.

 

wlubd

March 1st, 2011 at 11:37 AM ^

God only knows at this point. Wisky, OSU and Purdue are locks. Despite their best efforts to get sent to the NIT, Illinois should as well. Then who knows?

I think Sparty would have to do a lot not to be there although they're trying to fail. Can't see them staying in front of us if we beat them and a loss to Iowa would probably be enough to take them out.

For us, a win against Sparty might be enough given how soft the bubble is but an additional BTT win would be much better.

Minnesota's off the radar screen now. They need to win out to go 8-10 in the conference. That's no good. Barring a miraculous run they're out.

Penn State's a mystery. They're worth talking about if they beat OSU tonight.

My guess would be 6, Sparty and us being the two bubble teams to get in. That's assuming Sparty beats Iowa, we beat Sparty and Sparty doesn't fold against Iowa/Indiana in the BTT. Or it could be 5, with the odd team out being who loses Saturday at Crisler. I don't see it being more than 6 though, especially if a Minny or a PSU runs the table in the BTT.

joeyb

March 1st, 2011 at 12:06 PM ^

Actually, if PSU wins out, then we will be the 6th seed regardless of whether Illinois beats Purdue and assuming they beat Indiana at home. PSU would be 10-8 and Illinois would have the tiebreaker on us (tied 2-1 against the 9-9 teams, better record against Wisconsin).

However, we should be rooting for PSU to beat Minn, because that would put us in a 4-way tie, in which we win the tiebreaker and get the 4-seed. So, PSU to split and for Michigan to beat MSU. If you want to hope for Illinois to lose-out, that's fine too.

BigBlue02

March 1st, 2011 at 12:12 PM ^

I can't wait until next season when our "tourney hopes simplified" post a week before the B10 tourney can be changed to this: "What seed can we improve to if we win the B10 tournament?"

cp4three2

March 1st, 2011 at 1:52 PM ^

then beat Iowa and Wisconsin, we'll have a shot, if we beat Iowa, Wisconsin, and Purdue, we'll be in without having to win the whole thing.