Time of possession in our offense

Submitted by Eye of the Tiger on

The conventional wisdom, since the days of Ur and Sumer, has been that teams should try to dominate time of possession, to wear down the opposing defense and keep one's own defense off the field.  Carr, Tressel, and virtually all the other Big 10 coaches on payroll at the moment see it this way.

Revisionists, particularly those impressed by or advocating for the various spread offenses that have emerged in the past decade or so, have pooh-poohed this assumption as an unecessary and often counter-productive sacred cow. The thinking goes, if your offense can score a lot, why slow them down?  Why not score quickly and often to confuse and demoralize your opponent?  RR, Chip Kelly, Pat Fitzgerald and other spread coaches see it this way.  

The thing about both of these positions, is that they view possession--the decision whether to proceed slowly or fast--as a strategy, something you do generally. I'd like to suggest a different way of thinking about time of possession--as a tactic--and argue that this is how Borges and Hoke see it.  I'd also like to argue that this is a very, very good thing.

Let me explain: for one thing, I don't like ideological approaches to football.  I've never understood the logic of replacing one sacred cow with another, and don't see why a coach should box himself in to doing things one way, regardless of the situation.  I like flexibility and I like adjustments.

More importantly, I like tailoring the road to victory to what you have and wht you face.  In the first half of yesterday's game, we looked too much like our 2010 iteration: prolific in picking up yards, unable to capitalize on this in terms of points, and on the other side of the ball, unable to stop the opposing offense.  That opposing offense was coming at us fast and furious, using a series of simple perimeter passing and running to move up and down the field at will.  We tried going uptempo as well, and did move the ball, but our execution wasn't as good as theirs, and so found ourselves down 10 at the half.

At halftime, the coaches took stock and made a decision: we're going to keep them off the field, and change our defensive tactics to counter their perimeter game.  Part of this entailed our offense moving slowly and methodically.  It worked, to the tune of 28-0 in the second half.  The situation suggested this tactic might be useful, and it was.  To put it another way: I can't imagine an alternate strategy working any better than it did.  

Earlier in the season, against Notre Dame, we did the opposite: we sped things up.  That also worked in that situation, resulting in a thrilling, epic victory over one of our biggest rivals.  

Personally, I love the fact that our coaches don't seem to care about having a concrete position on time of possession, and instead set the tempo according to what they think the situation requires.  This, in many ways, encapsulates why I'm so impressed by our new coaching staff.  Yes it's early and only 6 games,  but so far they look like they combine Carr's ability to build balanced, competitive teams with the tactical sophoistication that RR brought to the table...but on both sides of the ball.  Again, it's too early to know, but the signs are very, very good.  

swan flu

October 9th, 2011 at 12:51 PM ^

I hear what you are saying... but I think you are putting the cart before the horse.  I think the reason we outscored them 28-0 in the second half has more to do with adjustments in playcalling (and Denard passing the ball better) than in speed of play.

 

If there's one thing Greg Mattison has done exceedingly well, it is second-half adjustments.  I was watching at my grandma's 80th birthday party so I wasn't able to fully analyze what we did differently, but both sides of the ball looked worlds better.

 

The offensive production seemed to have more to do with the fact that Denard got into a passing groove.

 

 

Eye of the Tiger

October 9th, 2011 at 12:57 PM ^

That's my point.  It wasn't just changing defensive schemes and honing offensive execution, but also keeping the ball and slowly strangling NW.  They view time of possession as a tactic.

Would we have won if we'd gone "blur?"  Maybe.  But 28-0 was, in part, the result of this tactical decision.  

I like that our coaches go uptempo when it seems most tactical, and slow-tempo when that seems most tactical.  

kb

October 9th, 2011 at 12:56 PM ^

can be important when playing against a team with an above average offense IMO.  Keeping NW off the field and limiting the chances Persa had was key.  The same goes for when we play Nebraska, but it's probably not as important when we play the WMUs of the world. 

go16blue

October 9th, 2011 at 1:01 PM ^

"Keeping NW off the field and limiting the chances Persa had was key"

You do this by making stops defensively, TOP doesn't decide this, it's just a result of defensive stops.

If team A runs a hurry up and gets 80 plays on your defense, but is only on the field for 25:00, you're going to be in pretty bad shape. If team B plays for TOP, they could very well be on the field for 35:00, and only get 60 plays. Chances are, you do better against team B than team A. TOP is completely meaningless.

kb

October 9th, 2011 at 1:46 PM ^

like when a team has a lead or has taken the lead in second half - just ask OSU in their game against Nebraska. What also gets lost in the TOP discussion is that it also contributes to field position.  If a team has trouble sustaining drives and converting on third down they have to punt most often on their side of the field, leaving the other team with good field position, a higher chance of scoring points, and more opportunities.  If a team is able to hold on to the ball when they have a lead they minimize the opportunities for teams to come back.  If a team scores in the process, even better.

I don't think teams have a goal to play to control TOP, but it becomes important in the second half if you have a lead.  Also, I don't think the example exactly holds up. If you have more TOP, the chances are higher that you also have more plays, so the 35:00 team would also likely have just as many plays run - against a good offensive team I would prefer to run 80 plays for 35:00 than 80 plays for 25:00.

 

MCalibur

October 9th, 2011 at 1:01 PM ^

TIme of Possession is not an offensive stat, it is a team stat. Obviously, up tempo plays into it but not as much as the majority of folks want to conclude.

M's TOP during the RR era was plagued by bad offense in year 1 and bad execution in years 2 and 3. Defensively, we couldn't' stop anybody at any time during the RR era thus the other team's TOP was bouyed by that.

It is a zero sum game. If they are possessing that ball, you aren't. The majority of observers don't even consider that defense plays a part.

Jasper

October 9th, 2011 at 1:15 PM ^

Nothing personal, Eye of the Tiger, but when you have the ball, you try to score. Period. The idea of TOP as a meaningful statistic has been debunked.

- - -

Quiz ...

Scenario 1: Denard scores on an 87-yard touchdown run. Drive: 2 plays, a few seconds.

Scenario 2: Vincent Smith scores on a 2-yard run. Drive: 13 plays, several minutes.

Which scenario yields more points?

- - -

Here's what seems to be assumed: Every game will be a close one and, in the 4th quarter, we'll get strangled by a MANBALL team because our defense is tired and theirs (having spent only a handful of plays on the field because of an inability to defend Denard) is fresh as a daisy.

I think that's mostly ridiculous.

- - -

Suppose Russell Wilson sees a wide-open receiver in back of the defense. Should he chuck the ball in that general direction or opt for a 4-yard QB keeper? I honestly believe that some of the TOP advocates would vote "B" here, just so Wiscy can KEEP THE OTHER TEAM OFF THE FIELD (!!!!).

JClay

October 9th, 2011 at 1:38 PM ^

This is what I hate -- and especially hated during the RR era -- about the ToP debate. ToP opponents want float this absurd situation where a team intentionally doesn't score so that the defense can rest. No one is advocating that. No one ever has. Arguing against an absurd scenario doesn't make your case.

If Michigan is tied/leading and I have the choice between a one play, 80 yard touchdown pass, or a 15-play, 80-yard drive that takes 10 minutes, I'll take the latter. Yes, both are seven points, but which increases our chances of winning the game more: the 7 point, and running :15 off the clock; or the 7 points and running ten minutes off the clock? Go ask the guy who does the "chance of winning live in game" charts every week.

And it was maddening that during the RR era, we'd come out leading or tied after our defense gave up a TD and we'd run 3 hurry-up plays where the ball was snapped with :25 on the play clock and fail to get a first down, and our defense would be off the field for 3 minutes of real-life time, and no one wanted to believe that perhaps if we had three-and-outed but taken an extra 2 minutes to let our defense catch their breathe it might have aided them.

Is ToP the be-all-and-end-all, no. Is there many cases where long-sustained drives (which add to our ToP secondarily) better than scoring quickly, yes.

BobBlueMass

October 9th, 2011 at 3:51 PM ^

This is the problem with making judgements based on a probability or a correlation based on just one variable. There's a difference between "usually" or "probably" and always. There is no always in sports. Nothing works all the time. What impresses me with this team and this coaching staff is their ability to adapt and adjust. RR and staff failed the Darwin test; they couldn't adapt and adjust. Couldn't adapt his system to fit the talent he actually had. Couldn't adjust in game to how the game was going.

MileHighWolverine

October 9th, 2011 at 4:20 PM ^

Please give up the "Rich Rod didn't adapt to the talent he had" meme already. 

There was NO talent when he got here.  Almost the entire Offense either graduated or left when he took over the reigns and even if Mallett had stayed, our first year would have sucked anyway - maybe 5-7 instead of 3-9.

Give credit to the past coaches for bringing Denard and the current crop of players - they would have killed to be walking into the same situation as the current coaching staff.

 I'm very happy with Hoke and our new staff and it is time we stop comparing to the previous regime already - apples to oranges comparison of situations.