Theory on no passing: feel free to share your competing theories
We were at the game this weekend. Great game day atmosphere, the Penn State fans were great overall. The people around us were fun, knowledgeable and welcoming. The overwhelming impression was that Penn State fans and alums are just incredibly enthusiastic and normal. They also can’t stand James Franklin who is clearly the worst big game coach in history. (Small Game James)
Aside from the amount of TV timeouts, which was absolutely insufferable (the drive at the end of the 3rd Q/start of 4th Q had 9 minutes of TV timeouts for one series), we could not understand the play calling to run the ball moderately successfully over and over and over in the 2nd half. Completely understand the desire to run the clock and grind it out but taking the ball completely out of JJ’s hands really didn’t make a lot of sense when it seemed we had some success when trying to throw the ball up to that point.
Then, early this morning I had a thought and I’ll share my theory, please feel free to share yours—wrong answers are welcome as always. My theory is that they wanted Harbaugh to have the opportunity to be on the sidelines when JJ passes him in all time passing yards. I didn’t think it was plausible but seeing Moore’s postgame interview, yeah, I think he’s that crazy and would do something like that while also showing the world we can dominate in any strange fashion we want to and shining light on the run game and offensive line.
Am I crazy? My traveling partners think I am, I think they’re ignorant fools.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:28 AM ^
Yes. You are crazy.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:30 AM ^
Thanks for reading all the way till the end. You get a +1 from me
November 12th, 2023 at 7:34 AM ^
Hope you enjoyed the game. Go Blue.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:33 AM ^
There is no way in the world this could be true.
Moore was just trying to win the game and our tackles couldn't handle their edge rush.
If you go back and watch the game, you can see why Michigan ran on all but 3 or 4 of those plays.
In fact, running was clearly the right call on most of those (you have to throw on a couple of those 3rd downs).
If Moore was doing anything for Harbaugh, it was going back to playing smashmouth football with extra OL, FBs, and TEs.
I would bet Harbaugh doesn't give a shit about a stat (especially getting passed by JJ), but watching his team win a street fight? That had to be porn for Jim.
Also, Moore doesn't know the next time Harbaugh will be on the sideline. (I firmly believe Michigan wins on Friday...they just couldn't set a precedent where Michigan Football warrants an emergency injunction and the next case doesn't).
November 12th, 2023 at 7:43 AM ^
Moore ran the ball because it worked. 24-15. On the road at Penn State.
November 12th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
Yeah and 6 of the 15 were garbage time, which people seem to be forgetting, including the OMG PANIC we can’t throw or coach crowd.
Rewatch the game, even the completions JJ threw he was running for his life or got absolutely destroyed on his follow through.
I would assume that every UM fan agrees we need JJ with functional body parts for the next few weeks.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:01 AM ^
If our tackles could not handle their edge rushers to the extent that would be could not throw the ball AT ALL we are in trouble down the stretch.
Personally, I think HC and solo play caller was too much for Moore. Doing that in a big game against a good team is a different animal than East Carolina. I don’t think he had the bandwidth to do both once it became a strategic chess match. Frankly I think Michigan should have blown them out in the second and that not throwing any passes was pretty questionable.
I really like Moore but I question if this is the best format. Our RBs coach themselves and I really like the idea of Hart at HC with the coordinators doing their thing. Just my opinion.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:09 AM ^
Yeah, using play action 4-5 times during that stretch probably gets us at least another touchdown and field goal. I’d rather run the clock out up 19 than up 9
November 12th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
Play action too slow to develop when you can’t get the ends blocked. Football 101.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:19 AM ^
I was thinking that Jay H should be the fill in HC so the coordinators could focus on their roles. I thought is half of the UNLV game was the best of the non-conference game performances.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:51 AM ^
Yeah, man, I completely agree. Small sample size, but I thought Jay was the most effective interim coach from the non-conference, and more broadly speaking he appears to be deeply underrated as a coach (as is the long-running joke of this blog).
I do agree with the notion that head-coaching and play-calling was maybe a bit more than what was optimal for Moore. A couple more (only a couple) play-action calls or JJ roll-outs would have been cool. However, the way that Moore held the resolve of the team together yesterday, not to mention the decision he made to adjust the plan on the fly in order to pound the rock, was nothing short of spectacular. He need never buy a drink in Ann Arbor again.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:20 AM ^
I won't disagree in that I would also have preferred Hart to coach, but I'll stop short of saying Sherrone "didn't have the bandwidth". That's an incredibly harsh cutdown that I don't think you meant, but it is. Think about the game, though - we started running the 'normal' offense (for whatever that term is worth), and made a huge change in tactics in-game. That's a hard thing to do, and it was pulled off almost flawlessly (a few issues with getting the play call in).
Personally, I'm thinking more and more that Sherrone did an outstanding job of managing a hard game to manage, especially under the circumstances thrown at the team at the 11th hour. If nothing else, he out-coached Frames Janklin in the game style Janklin wanted - the 'Iowa Rockfight'. So he has that going for him...
November 12th, 2023 at 8:29 AM ^
I don't think "bandwidth" is too harsh. I think it's just acknowledging reality. At most P5 programs, the HC, OL coach, and OC are 3 different people each working a full time job. Michigan already is a bit unusual for putting 2 jobs on Moore. 3 FTE jobs is a helluva lot to put on someone, regardless of how talented they are. I believe Sherrone will be and should be Michigan's next HC, but when that time comes he'll be able to hire help for the jobs he's already doing.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
In no way is that a harsh takedown of Moore. You have to read way too much into it to think that. That entire second half yesterday was filled with game theory stuff. It is very hard for a coach to focus on that and play calls at the same time. Really seasoned coaches who have been doing it for a long time can do it. I just don’t think he is ready yet. That’s all.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
How about "Coach Harbaugh" for Saturday against MD! Ravens play Thursday night, could spend Friday going over game plan and take over HC duties on Saturday. Can't be much of a drive for him. BIG said Harbaugh is banned, did they say which one. The other Coach Harbaugh has a pretty good track record.
That would be the ultimate FU to the BIG!
November 12th, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
If our tackles could not handle their edge rushers to the extent that would be could not throw the ball AT ALL we are in trouble down the stretch.
Totally get the sentiment, but we all engage in too much of this kind of thinking.
It’s fascinating how college and the NFL are different in this regard. In college, we read so much into everything that happens. A result is QED proof of one team’s superiority over another; a shortcoming in one game means you’re in trouble down the road. Meanwhile, no one looks at the Chiefs losing to the Broncos and thinks that must mean something is critically wrong.
It could very well be that we don’t have the OTs to beat Ohio State. It could also be that this was our first encounter with edge rushers of that caliber, and that it was a temporary shock to the system.
November 12th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
JJ was 7 of 8 for 60 yards and 7.5 yards per play. If including the pass interference penalty, then that would go up to 75 yards and 8.3 yards per play. JJ had success with 150+ QB rating, no interceptions or fumbles.
I was assuming at the time, JJ had a hurt arm or finger or something. Thank goodness not the case, but better teams could catch up when desperate and given the opportunity.
November 12th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
The great thing about this video evidence is that we’ll be prepared to address it more comprehensively in the event future opponents try to implement same strategy.
i will say that’s the best D end we’ve seen this year and he’s an NFL guy, not sure future opponents other than Georgia have that level of dude.
November 12th, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
330,
Moore did better than fine.
Yeah, agree with most but not all.
Great experience for someone who may or may not be up and coming.
I'd like to see the people commenting on this board do the job.
The Fucker took over at the last minute (prepared or not), recognized and adjusted quickly to problems, used the clock wisely, kept the ball in secure hands, then trusted those kids to do the job they train for.
I just don't know what all you spoiled sunsabitches want!
November 12th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
Why risk throwing. The only way PSU wins that game is by a turnover. They could more easily generate that by throwing, especially with their pass rush. IMO Moore knew that PSU didn’t have faith in their qb to throw the ball on Michigan, so just they just salted away the game and controlled the game. At the end of the fourth, PSU was still running, showing why they didn’t want Aller to throw. When he eventually did, it was embarrassing.
November 12th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
Yes, throwing the ball would lead to a much higher probability of TO events, and TO events were likely the only way for PSU to win. The reason why there was this delta in TO event probability is 52's difficulty in dealing with a speed pash rush. Once UM had a lead, it was a prudent move to reduce performance volatility.
Less concerned about OSU's pass rush, as it seems they are more power and less speed rushers, which 52 seems more apt to handle appropriately. Also, I am more doubtful that UM can "sit" on a lead in the same way against OSU as they have a more well-rounded offense.
November 12th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
My take exactly…
November 12th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Our offensive play calling made this game closer than it should have been and left less margin for error.
November 12th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
The tackles held their edge decent enough on Michigan's first two TD drives when they threw the ball. Also the PI had decent pass protection.
November 12th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
Shockingly awful take, JJ got destroyed on any throw not a roll out.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:31 AM ^
How many passing yards does JJ need to pass Harbaugh?
November 12th, 2023 at 7:33 AM ^
He’s 20 yards short of him
November 12th, 2023 at 7:36 AM ^
He threw for 70-some yards - you think Moore was counting that and stopped him 20 yards short? So how do you explain the DPI called on the throw to Barner ~20 yards downfield that doesn't show up in the stats?
Your personal thoughts here are asinine...
November 12th, 2023 at 7:48 AM ^
That wasn't an intended 20 yard pass play. That was a designed DPI.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:55 AM ^
Bingo!
My theory is that ghostofhoke had a wager with his buddies that, if he posted this "theory," someone would write "crazy" AND someone would use the word "asinine."
November 12th, 2023 at 7:31 AM ^
I think they just wanted to be conservative, but also to show that our guys are just bigger and stronger than your guys and don’t need signs to beat a top 10 team on the road.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:32 AM ^
What happens to your theory if the TRO is denied?
November 12th, 2023 at 7:33 AM ^
We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. Or we’ll run the ball for the rest of the season and prove me right—also I’m not married to it long term but seemed like something theh could try to save for this one game and see where it goes from there
November 12th, 2023 at 7:39 AM ^
JFC. PSU is a top 10 team with one of the best defenses in the nation, playing at home in a hard environment to play in.
'Hey, lets just not pass so JJ can set a personal record in front of a single person. Because nothing says T E A M if you're not drawing the spotlight on yourself!'
November 12th, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
No one is going to do that. If that is what Moore did, Harbaugh should fire him, if that costs a game.
November 12th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
Do you have an idea how insane this is?
Absolutely... just no. No.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^
TRO was already denied. The outcome of Friday, if Michigan is successful in its case, is a preliminary injunction. However, it may take several days for the judge to read through all of the briefs and motions filed - and consider that non-litigants may file amicus briefs. My gut tells me JH is not on the sidelines for Maryland.
November 12th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
Hello Coach Moore.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:34 AM ^
Listen to Blake’s interview on the field right after the game. He said “JJ was nicked”. My guess is that to protect him against the rush and knowing that PSU could not score twice against us led to that strategy.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:43 AM ^
I agree but during that first 2nd half drive Michigan was only up 5. And being nicked wouldn't seem to take plays that get the ball out fast like the Semaj Morgan screen off the table.
It worked and that's what matters. But it seemed to me that the first half featured 2 run dominated drives that had just enough passing to keep the defense honest, and those drives ended in TDs. It felt like we got away from a formula that was working a quarter sooner than we needed to.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^
But I think his "nick" didn't happen until the fourth quarter.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:35 AM ^
We. Won.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:35 AM ^
It’s a great hot take, after yesterday JJ trailed Jim by 20 total career yards.
8. Jim Harbaugh 5,449
9. J. J. McCarthy 5,429
10. Tom Brady 5,351
November 12th, 2023 at 7:37 AM ^
No, it makes zero sense and is only something a fan would think about in a one possession game for all but 3 minutes of the 2nd half.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:39 AM ^
I knew someone was out there. Thank you!!
November 12th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
Bette hot take. PSU is after a top ranked QB who Michigan thinks is another Drew Allar and they ran it 30 straight times to make sure the kid didn’t get start wanting to come to Michigan.
drew allar sucks
November 12th, 2023 at 7:35 AM ^
Yeah, you're crazy.
The game plan changes because good coaches figure out what works and what's not working and adapt to the situation as the game goes on.
November 12th, 2023 at 7:42 AM ^
Did you see JJ’s stat line? Passing was working at times, risky because we had no answer for Robinson but it was an option.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
Because on the first two possessions Barnhart got beat clean at least twice without even getting a hand on Chop.
So coaches realized we couldn’t just do straight drop backs and then by the 2nd half realized PSU offense couldn’t move the ball and decided to avoid risk and turnover and make PSU prove they could cover the whole field and it turned out to the right move.
November 12th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
Risky is the key word there. It was a tight game. Running was working, and killing the clock at the same time, while also breaking their will and wearing down their line. If they managed another sack, or turnover, that breathes new life into their bench, and the crowd.
Your ideas here are batshit, man. You don't risk losing this game over some petty stat line. You just don't.
You play to win the game.