Sunday's Rooting Guide - Must Win Edition
Well, it's officially the last day of the regular season and we have about as close to a must-win game as you'll get. More about that & the other games we'll be watching today in a moment. But first let's look at yesterday's action-packed day and where Michigan stands entering the day:
- The day started rough with West Virginia & Auburn getting big wins. I'm of the belief that those teams both likely stamped their tickets yesterday but we'll see.
- The evening session brought some MUCH friendly results with UNLV handing Nevada a critical Quad-3 loss at home.
- Carolina losing to Duke now leaves them with a 1-9 record in Quad-1 games. UNC is going to need a pretty deep run in the ACC tournament. The extra kicker for UNC is there are only so many opportunities for Quad-1 wins in said tournament. Currently only Miami, Duke, Virginia, and NC State would qualify as Quad-1 wins. Going to be a very tough ask.
- Vanderbilt and USC also had big wins against Mississippi State & Arizona State. In particular that ASU loss was a help as they are on the cut line on basically every bracket.
- Interestingly enough, on Bracket Matrix, the last 6 teams in, as of yesterday were: Pitt, Nevada, Auburn, Mississippi State, Arizona State, and Wisconsin. 4 losses out of that group is a pretty damn good day!
- As for Michigan, our NET ranking, Torvik, and Kenpom numbers got a boost after yesterday's games. We're currently 53 on the NET rankings, 41 on Kenpom and 43 on Torvik.
Alright, let's look at today's games and what we're rooting for:
- Maryland (20-10, 11-8) at Penn State (18-12, 9-10) - (PSU by 3) - 12pm EST on BTN - Penn State is currently 57 on the NET rankings and has 4 Quad-1 wins. We simply cannot afford them getting a 5th today. Also of note, Maryland is currently 27 on the NET rankings, getting dangerously close to the cutoff for a Quad-1 win. Michigan needs to keep that one. We're big Terp fans today!
- MICHIGAN (17-13, 11-8) at Indiana (20-10, 11-8) - (Indiana by 4) - 4:30pm on CBS - Not much to say about this game. Without a win today, we almost certainly would need 2 wins in Chicago. One thing I do find interesting is, the spread in this game is a point closer than against the Illini. Tells me Vegas thinks this is a better matchup for us. We just played this team to the wire in Ann Arbor a few weeks ago. No reason we can't win today. Let's ruin their Senior night, shall we?
- Stony Brook (11-21, 6-12) at College of Charleston (28-3, 16-2) - (C of C by a lot) - 6pm, game not televised - Let me be clear, Charleston is going to win this game. This is their first game in the Colonial tournament. It gets more difficult for Charleston after today. They'll be a team to keep an eye on over the next few days.
- Northwestern (20-10, 11-8) at Rutgers (18-12, 10-9) - (Rutgers by 5) - 7:30pm on BTN - These are two teams trending in the wrong direction. Northwestern has lost 3 games in a row, Rutgers has lost 5 of 7. While Rutgers has 5 Quad-1 wins, they also have 3 Quad-3 losses. Another loss here is going to get them even closer to the cut line. Rutgers may be a team we need to jump to make the tourney. For today, we're rooting for the Cats.
- Wisconsin (16-13, 8-11) at Minnesota (8-20, 2-16) - (Wisky by 5) - 7:30pm on FS1 - This is the ultimate 'this game can only hurt you' game. A win against a bad Minnesota game does nothing for Wisconsin. A loss here would knock them down the bubble line considerably. Let's do this Gophers!
Well, there you have it. For anyone paying attention, we're rooting for all of the underdogs today. My feeling is, if we can get our win today, everything else will sort itself out. If we lose today, we're rooting for as much carnage as possible and need to just figure out a way to do it in Chicago.
Go Blue!
Let’s make Chaundee dance
Man, his shooting, defense and all around energy would be so welcome on this team. Miss you Chaundee!
I’ll be cheering for a Michigan win, and - a bunch of carnage.
JUST WIN!!!!
Spin the Wheel of Jeopardy, Guess the letters W, I, and N, and hope for the best. The answer has to be "What did the University of Michigan do today to improve their chances of getting into the Big Dance".
Do it to it Blue let’s go.
Good stuff.
Gotta win and then see what happens. UM isn't likely to back into a bid but the other bubble teams are also playing themselves on and off it. Auburn I always assumed was still in regardless of their close, but beating UT solidified it. WVU playing like ass for most of the year only to pick off a couple of teams at the end sucks but ah well.
I think Maryland takes care of business against PSU. They've got seeding to fight for.
Wisconsin probably beats Minnesota but the Gophers nearly won at Wisconsin earlier in the year so you never know.
Rutgers I think wins against NW but yeah, both those teams are sliding. UM having beaten Rutgers in the road and sweeping NW are good time breakers.
"good time breakers" is probably a typo for "good tie breakers."
BUT somehow "good time breakers" works too.
Ya jinxed it!
NW isn't close to the bubble so there won't be a tie breaker there. So we want them to beat Rutgers which has a weird resume and could be competing with us for a spot if they lose today.
still have zero idea how Wisconsin is considered for the tourney at all let alone a bye. They are 16-13 and 8-11 in the big ten and have lost like 10 games since January. Looking at their resume I’d consider them closer to needing an autobid to get in vs an at large
Even Carl wants the Gophers to prevail. Let's go Gophers!!!
As others have said throughout the past week, thanks a ton for doing these, True Blue 9. Your write-ups are concise and informative -- the perfect rooting guide.
Appreciate that, Ted!
Root root root for Mich Mich Michigan!
And for Maryland, Northwestern, and Minnesota.
And, as always, for Stony Brook. (Basketball's Slippery Rock?)
Go Blue.
(Thanks again, True Blue.)
You've done yeoman's work the past couple weeks, TB9. Take a well-deserved bow.
Sadly, all our tournament hopes and dreams shall crash and burn today at Assembly Hall.
But at least we'll get a favorable NIT draw!
Appreciate that. This is probably a hot take but....I actually like our chances to win 2 games in Chicago, depending on the match-ups. It does become quite difficult but all is not lost with a loss today. Keep the faith :)
Dude, I don’t think you understand how being a fan works, you root FOR your team and AGAINST the opponent.
Good start to the Maryland-Penn State game. Maryland has a 13-point lead with 5 minutes left in the first half.
Why dear lord, why?! Lol Jinxed it
These posts have been a fun addition to the pre-madness.
I like having an additional reason to root for Wisconsin to lose.
Lunardi moved us to the next four out group and moved up Clemson and OK St after their big wins against conference last place teams yesterday.
Yea, saw that earlier. Kind of interesting, of the 29 brackets that were updated today, Michigan is in 2. North Carolina is in exactly 1. Penn State is in 8, hence why them losing a home game today is important. Interesting that Arizona State is only in 10.
Ok State's win was a q1 so that's understandable, Clemson not so much...we'll leap back over both of them with a win today.
TB9, Change your username to TB12, because this has been GOAT-level effort the last couple weeks. Chapeau to you!
Anyway, win today and two BTT wins to be sure? Win today and one BTT win and we have to surf in on our brand?
Appreciate that Albany!
My best guess, based on the bubble wins and losses this weekend is, win today and one more in the BTT and we'll be fine.
I think losing today and winning 2 in Chicago will be enough. If we lose today, it's all about match-ups!
Damn you, Maryland.
Penn State making it close. Go Terps
Maryland possibly blowing this game to the Nittany Lions is driving me crazy.
They have reviewed the last 3-4 plays in this Maryland game and it's infuriating. I feel like this is the second clock adjustment.
looks like MD is going to piss this game away against PSU. that hurts us big time.
Yeah, PSU gets on these runs where they shoot the lights out from outside and it's not sustainable but it can eb enough for a win or two. This feels like one of those games.
With so many bubble teams winning (damn you, Maryland), I don't see how Michigan can make the tournament without a win today and at least one win in the BTT, maybe 2. There would just be too many teams Michigan would have to jump if they lose today.
TBH, I won't be comfortable at this point unless we win the whole damn BTT
Michigan needs to win today and make the BTT final. This game sealed it. Things have not broken our way.
Not even close. With a win today, Michigan jumps over a lot of teams.
This just isn’t true. We have gotten some tough breaks here. They need to make a run in the tourney.
You also said Michigan would be ahead of PSU after the Illinois loss, but that clearly wasn’t the case. PSU is in 17 brackets and Michigan is in 3. Maybe be a little less smug.
Fucking stupid ending to that game. Maryland had 4 guys around to rebound and the one bounces to the PSU guy.
Well, looks like we have a double bye if we win today.
Which I don't believe would be helpful since Michigan needs all the wins they can get.
Lol, fitting irony for the type of season we've had
I don't think winning a meh game on Thursday really helps much. You can only hurt yourself by losing. At least, you should be getting somebody decent on Friday.
Every win helps when you’re on the wrong side of the bubble. And going 2-1 or 1-1 in the BTT is better than going 1-1 or 0-1.
It’s alright. They are not winning today.
Fucking Maryland. That was a horrible game to watch.
I guess if UM wins today they'll get a double bye but not even sure if that helps them much come resume time.
What's infuriating is watching teams like PSU and Maryland play poorly and know that if UM had gotten slightly better luck in games (like, PSU didn't really do anything on that last play to set themselves up for a win beyond have a ball bounce directly to the one PSU guy near the rim) they'd be in the tourney with room to spare.
Blah.
I personally think if Michigan wins today they are in. But completely agree with you on the rest. The Maryland player had his hand on the ball and just didn’t secure the rebound. I’m biased but the eye test to me says Michigan is a much better team than penn state.
I think it comes down to how Wisconsin and Rutgers play to end the year. The Big 10 has a handful of locks (Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, MSU, Indiana, NW, Iowa) and then 4 teams likely fighting for 1-2 spots. So UM has to stay ahead of PSU, Wisconsin, and Rutgers, and that's the tough part. I don't see the Big 10 getting in more than 9 teams, at best, so yeah if UM wins @IU then they're probably in the driver's seat but they're still hoping PSU loses another game, Rutgers goes out early, and Wisconsin stumbles.
It won't happen but if Minnesota could beat the Badgers today that absolutely submarines their bid hopes barring a BTT run.
Could very well be the case, but they won't be able to feel remotely comfortable without also winning at least one in the BTT.