SIAP: Michigan Monday, Indiana
Good insight as always. Muted snark, as is normal when we do well.
Rutgers is a "rivalry game" again, at my request last week. You're welcome :)
October 11th, 2022 at 3:10 PM ^
While I don't wish it upon anyone, would it be beneficial to us if someone did a "This week in Toilet Bowl"? I mean "MMQB-ing Brutus".
[edit: deleted an extra B from MMQB.]
October 11th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
For as in-depth as this analysis is it seems egregious to ignore Roman Wilson's absence. He is the deep threat. He changes the way we play offense. Maybe this is just the hill I am dying on but Klatt didn't mention it either when he was pleading with Michigan to go deep. The offense will look different without its world class speedster. Expect Michigan to take some shots with Wilson against PSU.
October 11th, 2022 at 3:21 PM ^
You make a good point, but pure speed is not the only thing that makes a deep threat receiver. Athleticism to go up and get a ball (Anthony) and good route running (Johnson) are also big factors.
October 11th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
He also doesn't even consider that we may be keeping things under wraps for *someone other than* PSU. PSU's top win has been Purdue, who ran for a total of 13 yards on the Maryland team that Blake torched for 243. I know, transitivity isn't a thing. But I'm not sold on the idea that we won't be able to run on them and then take advantage of PAP/RPO. Frankly, I think that Harbaugh and Moore both expect that their OL is going to be able to bully PSU.
I think RW, CJ, and Bell are all good deep-ball targets. We definitely could have gone deep more against Indiana. Just didn't need to. Really, the first half was the Mike Hart story, and thankfully it looks like he's going to be ok. Gerdeman did a good job of showing the disparity between halves...
October 11th, 2022 at 4:34 PM ^
Maybe, but we're playing with fire if we're thinking of wasting possessions with foolishly telegraphed gut runs against a team with nearly the same talent, who is 5-0.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
Look bottom line is it looks like Michigan could use a solid LB, maybe a faster WR, and perhaps an ALL big ten Tight end. No amount of healing is going to fix that.
Oh wait.
October 12th, 2022 at 2:34 AM ^
Roman Wilson is great no doubt but with Bell, Johnson, Anthony even Clemons we had more than enough firepower to take deep shots against Indiana if Harbaugh wanted them.
October 11th, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^
If Michigan is once again telegraphing plays like they did this week, the Nittany Lion defense will be able to make the Wolverines pay for it.
But I just can’t see Michigan being so egregious this time around. Last week was like taking a final and just filling in the Cs for all the answers. Sure, you’ll end up getting enough questions correct to pass a test at IU, but that won’t cut it at an elite East Coast university. And it probably won’t cut it at Penn State either.
I lol'ed
October 11th, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
Comrade Gerdeman asks an excellent question:
Of the 11 snaps that I charted in the Pistol, all 11 were runs. More telling than that, of the 30 times that the Wolverines lined up in the shotgun with the running back’s depth even with the quarterback, Michigan threw the ball on 29 occasions. The lone running play saw the Wolverines backed up to the own 1-yard line.
Of the 17 snaps in shotgun where the running back is lined up off to the side and a step or so behind the quarterback, Michigan ran the ball 14 times. And the only three times they threw from that formation, the running back was to the right of the QB, keeping the ball visible to the defense the entire time.
So these are some pretty telling tendencies, but what exactly are they telling? Are they screaming that Michigan has a problem, or is this Jim Harbaugh simply trying to catch Penn State in tendency-breaking hell next week?
October 11th, 2022 at 3:17 PM ^
This was a great read, thanks. usually when I go on an opposing team’s blog (too often) and look at their Michigan preview, it’s either horribly biased or horribly written. This was neither. Kudos
October 11th, 2022 at 3:19 PM ^
Solid column. I wish he was a Michigan fan and on this blog's staff.
October 12th, 2022 at 5:10 AM ^
He is a closet fan. At least he spent formidable years with the Maize and Blue.
October 11th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
I don't think there has been a game this year where Michigan has passed the ball more than they have run it. The coaches need to trust McCarthy to air it out and at least be 50-50 between the pass and run. When they went away from run-run-pass sequence in the 2nd half, the game opened up. If you get caught lighting downs on fire running up the middle vs. PSU, you are going to lose the game.
October 12th, 2022 at 2:36 AM ^
So you're saying it's a problem to give Corum that many touches?
October 11th, 2022 at 3:37 PM ^
The noise about telegraphing run vs pass is interesting. If it's not intentional, then our horde of analysts that should be self-scouting is not doing a very good job.
If we struggle with PSU, I suspect we'll see plays that break those tendencies. If not, OSU might be the first to see them.
October 11th, 2022 at 3:56 PM ^
James Franklin is JUST stupid enough to believe Joel Klatt that motion = run, without doing any further digging like Brian and Gerdeman have done.
That insight of Gerdeman's that "RB level with the QB" = pass...I haven't seen that anywhere else. I think Brian was the first to notice that pistol = run.
We're tipping our pitches. Indiana noticed and couldn't do much, but they still slowed us down. PSU, MSU, and IL (that feels weird to type) can all do something about it. MSU is still the world's best defense when they KNOW a run is coming.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
Only within 3 yards of the endzone. Otherwise their run defense is pretty suspect. Minnesota went for 240, Maryland 175, and Ohio State 237. Hell, Washington even eclipsed 100 yards on the ground.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:34 PM ^
OTOH, it's also very possible that they're just running a lot of base offensive sets and that they'll switch things up. That is, they knew they were tipping their pitches and they didn't care b/c MD and IU are all about being successful with base formations against non-tomato cans. Now the "real" season begins and I would expect to see them break tendency against PSU much more than we've seen, and even more so against osu - maybe even msu, just to rub it in.
October 13th, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
The problem about pistol = run, is that the tendency-breaker is play action, which isn't exactly a stroke of genius.
Indiana HAS to fire their DBs into the LoS to stop the run. Penn State can just coach their LBs and DBs to read their keys as normal.
If we run out pistol formation and start bombing it down the field, I'll happily eat my crow with barbecue sauce. But...I unfortunately don't expect that.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:45 PM ^
Thanks for posting.
In an earlier one the writer tried to be funny and didn't quite make it. (Almost funny = not funny.) This time he—it's a he?—stuck to lightly amusing and muted snark, so it was okay. Nothing new though.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:00 PM ^
"It was the 11th 300-yard game for a Michigan quarterback under Jim Harbaugh’s watch (CJ Stroud has 12)."
I guess he left out the more important stat that Stroud is 0-1 against Michigan.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
Haven't we seen enough Michigan football and Harbaugh to know that they aren't strategically tipping their plays so they can suddenly break tendency against tougher opponents? We talk about this shit every year. Sure they add some wrinkes and nuance as the season goes on, but they largely aim to beat teams by having better players, better execution, and less mistakes, etc. There are some minor exceptions z but in general Harbaugh doesn't sandbag or hold things back. If we have certain tendencies then that's just what they are most of the time. I would love it if there was 3D chess going on, but that's not our style/culture.
October 11th, 2022 at 8:15 PM ^
"Michigan’s offensive tendencies might be a problem. Or it might be a well-designed confidence scheme. Harbaugh has basically left a giant bag in the Wolverines’ parking lot that says “FREE MONEY,” but we don’t yet know if it’s a scam or there is actual money in the bag."
Thanks for sharing, good read.
October 11th, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^
Mariano Rivera throwing....sliders?
Dude is not a baseball fan I see.
October 12th, 2022 at 1:25 AM ^
And one would think that he would be a Yankees fan since they took Henson away from Michigan!