Season Prediction Thread
I think we are getting toward the time of year where we can make some predictions. I haven't seen a thread dedicated to this yet, but if there has been, mods go ahead and delete.
I'll say 10-2 regular season, with 9-3 more likely than 11-1. Here's my rationale, and I hope you provide some rather than just putting down a number.
- Last year we were 121/125 in TO margin. With Ruddock presumably at QB, this should buy us, what, 2-3 wins? And if he's not QB, barring injury, the only reason can be positive.
- Pretty easy schedule outside of Utah, MSU and OSU. @Minnesota and @PSU will not be easy, but if we are what I think we should be, they really shouldn't compare at a talent level and for once we can say coaching should be an advantage.
- The defense looks to be no worse than good. Will it be elite? Will James Ross step up? Will Taco or Lawerence Marshall or I suppose Mario give us any pass rush? If we get a pass rush, I think the defense will be elite, but I'm not basing 10-2 on that.
- OL: We take a unit that performed reasonably well last year, give them more experience and arguably one of the best OL coaches in the country. Worst case scenario: solid pass pro and mediocre rushing. High hopes: very good but not elite.
- RBs: I'd really be surprised if we can't find someone or somebodys to perform admirably out of the 5 candidates: Isaac (IMO will be primary ball carrier), Green, Smith, Johnson, Higdon.
- WRs: Single biggest weakness I see. Darboh, from what we've seen, should be a #2, and he will be #1. I don't see Chesson taking it to the next level. Can Canteen, Harris, or maybe Peppers or Cole provide a dynamic option?
- X-Factor: Harbaugh performance in key games. This has been well-documented.
- We get our two toughest games at home. Win one and drop another annnnnddd
10-2
0-12
Haven't seen a thread like this in awhile.
10-2
EDIT: Peppers makes it to the Heisman Trophy Ceremony.
I'll say 9-3. 1-1 against Utah/BYU, 1-1 against Minny/PSU, 1-1 against MSU/OSU. Should win the rest. I agree, limiting turnovers on offense plus Durkin's disruptive defense should result in a significant turnaround.
My prediction is pretty much the same as Stringer's. Though I might sub Maryland in for PSU because I think the Nittany Lions are going to be very mediocre. Not that Maryland won't be as well.
Obv. I'd like better, but really, 9 - 3 is a reach which would be a huge improvement. I think we are too far behind MSU and OSU right now, and there are several other games we could easily lose. If I had to predict, I'd say we lose one non-conference game, lose to OSU, and lose one other Big 10 game. Again, from my perspective, that's a huge success.
EDIT: And FTR, I'd gladly take 8 - 4 if we won against MSU & OSU. That raises a sub-question: which game is it more important to win this year: MSU or OSU? I'm really torn on that one, but I'd have to say OSU. Long term, I believe we'll dominate MSU again. But we have to stop the bleeding against OSU.
Beating OSU is much more Important.
You can't spell c ck cker without osu.
Just curious, why do you think that Michigan is too far behind MSU? In what aspect? My guess is that Michigan is ahead of (or a push) with MSU on all phases of defense. Michigan stacks up with just about anybody except the truly elite at DL, LB and DB. Yes, the Sparty D was truly elite two years ago. I don't think that still applies. I'll call the defense 52/48 to Michigan's advantage.
Turning to offense, I think that MSU has a slight edge at QB (we've seen the Rudock v. Cook comparisons). I REALLY think that one of Michigan's RB's will emerge to match Sparty's output. I mean, Smith, Isaac and Green were all Top 15 backs coming out in 2013. They can't ALL be misses, right? With improved coaching (sorry Fred) and improved OL play, they have all of the tools to be successful. I think that Sparty again has the edge on OL......but WHY??? The Michigan guys were all highly recruited and have all been in the program for 3-4 years. They've had time to mature physically. Again, I'm expecting Drevno to have an immediate impact (he started two true freshman and a RS freshman at USC last year.....he can work with raw talent). That leaves WR. This is probably Michigan's most "iffy" position but I don't think that Sparty has a tremendous advantage. I'll call the offense 54/46 to MSU's advantage.
I'll admit that I don't know enough about Special Teams to comment. Norfleet, Wile and Hagerup are going. Reinforcements are available and coaching has improved. 55/45 Sparty.
This brings us to coaching. I think that Michigan will have the edge here in the long run. Right now, Dantonio has his scheme and players in place.....but I'm not betting against Harbaugh. 50/50 push.
When you add it all up, Sparty has a slight lead. That's primarily due to the unknown......how much (and quickly) will players improve under Harbaugh. We know Sparty's ceiling (yeah, they've finished in the Top 5 twice....don't let that fool you.....competition is improving). We don't know Michigan's ceiling yet. MSU is ranked # 6 now and Michigan is around # 50. I think the only way that Michigan finishes lower that Sparty in the polls this year is if they stumble twice in OOC games (Utah and BYU). Sparty will lose to Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State. They'll finish 9-3. Michigan's record will be at least that good (losses to OSU and a B1G road game)....unless they stumble in early games.
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MSU has more NFL talent than Michigan.
Connor Cook, Jack Conklin, Jeff Allen, Shilique Calhoun, Lawrence Thomas, Ed Davis are all bondafide NFL prospects.
The best propsect that Michigan have is Wayne Lyons who is considered a 4th rounder. That's not good for the state of the program.
Jabrill Peppers (probably the best prospect on either team), Mason Cole, Jourdan Lewis, Willie Henry, Jake Butt, Bryan Mone.......they are all legit NFL prospects on Michigan's side of the field. They might not be coming out this year but they all have a realistic shot at playing in the League.
August 1st, 2015 at 12:06 AM ^
NFL scouts haven't looked at them hard yet. They are concentrating on draft eligible players which is basically seniors and maybe juniors only if they are for sure declaring for the draft.
You got at least rationalize losing to OSU because every game with them should be 50/50 but MSU, on the other hand... There's no reason we should be losing to MSU consistently. It's time to regain our dominance against them, because I'm simply tired of geting calls from my old high school classmates who had to settle for the lesser school, calling me up after the game just to rub it in.
Yeah I'm with you. 10-2 would be rad but I don't want to get my hopes that high. I think we can get to 8-4 and then win a bowl game, as we should be playing better under the new staff at the end of the year than the beginning. Losses to MSU, OSU, PSU (I refuse to believe we will allow the LBJ to stay in Minnesota) and Utah/BYU.
My biggest hope is just that we're consistent. No more crapping the bed and playing below the level of inferior teams, please.
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Honestly--and I know the over/under on threads like this between now and September 3 would probably be fair at about 25.5--but what's the point of these prediction threads? This is like the most unpredictable season in the last decade. Nobody knows how we do, not even the players and coaches themselves, and I could make a decently reasonable argument for just about every record between 6-6 and 11-1.
I just want to see continuous improvement, reason for hope, and entertaining football.
I read HTTV and I saw Brian and company all suggest 7-5 or 8-4. Honestly, this to me seems more about not wanting to sound like homers than realistic predictions. The B10 is simply not good enough, IMO, to justify 7-5. I can see 8-4 as a bottom. I can certainly see 9-3. But honestly, I think people are underestimating the talent on the team and the impact of coaching. Urbz went undefeated with a certainly not great OSU team in his first year.
I feel the exact same way. You cannot understate the value of top notch coaching. The offense will be much improved. I'd be shocked if we went 8-4.
I'm sticking with 10-2 with a loss to either MSU or OSU and a loss to either Utah or Penn State.
I fully expect the team to improve as the year progresses.
than this year team. They have more NFL talent on the roster back then and was in a better position for 10 plus win season.
Besides the obvious miracel of getting Harbaugh, more importantly Gardner is gone. It sucks to say because in all honesty Devin is a decent guy, but he is truly the most infurriating quarterback I've ever witnessed. My prediction is based on the Utah game. If we beat Utah I see 10-2 if we lose to Utah I'll say 8-4.
And they lost zero games. Not two.
These are all realistic predictions. I see 6-6 as the bottom but 9-3 as the ceiling.
UNDEFEATED NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!
I'm flying to Vegas just to put a bet on Michigan for the national championship. Who's with me on this one?
I do it every year. Havent won yet, could this be the year????
Is it wrong to hedge by putting a bet on the Bucks too? Lol.
Bad juju.
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1 or 2 nights. Go for the weekend. Get free or cheap nights through players card at Wynn. Then have some good food and play a few games then come back.
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I'm a homer, 15-0 Harbaugh Harbaughs with a Harbaugh previously unknown to mankind!
It's the ten year anniversary of Bo's passing this year (11/17), The Team, The Team, The Team!
Edit: my bad 9 year...years are arbitrary human constructs anyway, Bo is forever!
9 year.....passed on in 2006
First year I don't expect double digits win I know Hoke did it but I just have way to many questions on offense. Losses to Utah, BYU, MSU, and OSU. I hope I'm wrong
9-4 is my most reasonable guess, but we have freaking Harbaugh so I say 11-2 counting a win in a New Year's 6 Bowl.
We gon shock the world...Go into the OSU game with the division title on the line
7-5 or 8-4. This is still a pretty bad team.
Based on what? Last year? Based on the performance of an indisputably bad coach whose only redeeming quality was recruiting rankings? I think turnover margin alone puts us at 8 wins.
Yes, it's mostly based on last year considering we have mostly the same football team from last year. The team that lost 7 games by 110 points.