Saturday Betting
Please post your bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for Saturday's slate of games. I'll start:
(Last week record: 5-2, Overall season record: 18-18)
Duke at Georgia Tech: 12:20pm Duke +3
Temple at Navy: 12:30pm Navy +7
Georgia at LSU: 3:30pm LSU +7.5
Ohio at Northern Illinois: 3:30pm Northern Illinois -4
East Carolina at Houston: 7pm East Carolina +16
West Virginia at Iowa St: 7pm Iowa St +7
Ole Miss at Arkansas 7:30pm: Arkansas +7
Noteable spreads of discussion:
Michigan currently sits as a -9-5 point favorite over Wisconsin in most books. Line opened at -7 and got hit hard earlier in the week by Sharps I was reading. Over/Under is 49
Ohio St currently sits as a -30 favorite over Minnesota (at Ohio St)
Penn St currently sits as a -13.5 favorite over Michigan St (at Penn St)
Notre Dame currently sits as a -21.5 favorite over Pitt (at ND)
October 12th, 2018 at 11:16 PM ^
Northwestern -3 against Nebraska at home
October 12th, 2018 at 11:23 PM ^
That’s NW/Nebraska game has had some interesting line movement this week. It opened at NW -6 and now it’s -3. 72% of the bets have been on NW so that must be sharp money on Nebraska that has brought that line down
October 12th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
Yeah I think NW seems obvious there, no? Nebraska is in shambles. They haven't put together a defensive percentile performance above 20% since week 3, whereas Northwestern is trending the other way after putting up a 56th percentile performance against Akron, they turned in 84th and 91st performances the last two weeks.
Northwestern looks like a team that rebounded and thinks they can win the West, and Nebraska looks like a team that doesn't want to be there.
October 13th, 2018 at 12:01 AM ^
I agree from the eye test that NW should definitely be able to cover the 3. Nebraska’s defense is still in shambles and Thorson should be able to move the ball on them one would think
October 13th, 2018 at 1:47 AM ^
Yeah, there has to be big money coming in from a few sharps to lower it that much when 72% of bets are going towards NW to cover.
October 13th, 2018 at 2:55 AM ^
Can you post a link where that info is coming from? I wouldn't expect Nebraska to lose all of their games, but this one seems like easy money on NW.
October 12th, 2018 at 11:20 PM ^
I don't gamble, but here's how I would bet on those lines:
Michigan - 9.5
Ohio State - 30 (actually, I wouldn't touch a 30 point line)
Penn State - 13.5
Pitt + 21.5
Oregon + 3.5
Georgia - 7.5
October 12th, 2018 at 11:29 PM ^
That Oregon/Wash line is another interesting line. It was -3 and just 39% of the bets were coming in on Washington yet the line had to get to the important -3.5 line which is indicating sharps are siding with Washington on this one causing that steam move . We’ll see
October 12th, 2018 at 11:33 PM ^
Yeah I just like Oregon straight up. Better lines, better QB, at home in a rivalry game.
October 12th, 2018 at 11:39 PM ^
I tend to agree. Oregon really should be undefeated as they let that Stanford game get away and you have to like it being at home . I am someone that is going to stay away from betting-wise , but in my college pick em pools I am like Oregon
October 12th, 2018 at 11:39 PM ^
is it bad if i want to give the points and bet the farm on ped state to beat molester state?
October 12th, 2018 at 11:49 PM ^
....I agree that young men from staee will leave happy valley with some major butt-hurt.
BTW, FUCK ped state and all their delusional joepa loving fans and all the paternos!!!
October 13th, 2018 at 1:51 AM ^
It's only bad if you don't like the sweet sweet monies you will win.
October 13th, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^
Great weekend for home dogs!
But Smooth Jimmy still prefers PSU for his "Lock of the Week!"
October 13th, 2018 at 12:17 AM ^
I like Wisconsin +10. How can we expect our beloved Wolverines to win by more than a TD? If I were a betting man I would take Wiscy with the points and hope I lose. Bear in mind I thought Nebraska would keep it close.
October 13th, 2018 at 12:31 AM ^
You’re crazy if you don’t take Wisconsin. I think BTN said Harbaugh is 4-8 against ranked teams. The moment gets to him. I’m not say UM will lose but Wisconsin will cover.
October 13th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
Come back around here at 11pm
October 13th, 2018 at 1:17 AM ^
If he does play today , I'd always bet on Black. And the over on Michigan.
October 13th, 2018 at 4:05 AM ^
After the way Saban talked about how bad the defense played last week, I see them shutting down Missouri. They'll put up their 50 and cover the 28 or whatever it is.
October 13th, 2018 at 4:46 AM ^
Went 5-2 two weeks ago, didn't see last week's. This week I'd have to go:
Georgia Tech -3
Navy +7
Georgia -7.5
Ohio +4
ECU +16
West Virginia -7
Ole Miss -7
I'd go Ohio St.-30, Sparty +13.5, and Pitt +21.5
October 13th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^
Penn State will cover. Although they probably play lazy for a little bit like they tend to do then pull away.
October 13th, 2018 at 9:05 AM ^
Penn State hasn't been particularly strong under James Franklin when coming off a loss.
I find the difference between these 2 stats meaningful (in terms of how well does the team do when rolling or facing adversity; these stats were the complete opposite under Bill O'Brien, for whatever that is worth):
(1) PSU is 1-10-2 ATS in the Franklin era (0-3-1 since 2016) during the regular season when coming off of a loss.
(2) PSU is 26-9-1 ATS in the Franklin era (19-3-1 since 2016) during the regular season when coming off of a win.
October 13th, 2018 at 9:19 PM ^
Crap - this post was a bit too prescient!
Maybe someone bet MSU and won some $$$.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:44 AM ^
lol I saw those stats before the game too man . That’s why I stayed away from betting that game . Thought psu was gonna move the ball against them tho but guess not . See ya in a few weeks !