Rudock v. Cook: common opponents in 2013 and 2014
I've been getting a little tired of the media praising Connor Cook as one of the top QBs in the conference while discussing how Michigan's QB situation is in trouble.
Any of you who have looked at Rudock's and Cook's respective 2013 and 2014 stats know that they put up pretty similar numbers on a seasonal basis (albeit with a slight edge to Cook). I decided to go a step further and look at all of their common opponents during the 2013 and 2014 seasons to see how they fared. I've color-coded the QB that had the better QB rating in each game. I'll let you draw your own conclusions, but here are a few basic points:
- They played 9 common opponents during 2013 and 2014: 6 in 2013, and 3 in 2014.
- Rudock had the better QB rating in 6 of those games, while Cook had the better QB rating in 3 of the games.
- In all 3 matchups where Cook has the edge, Rudock also played well against the same opponent, but the reverse isn't true (see Minnesota, WMU, and both Nebraska games).
- Cook is probably best known for his 2013 performance against Ohio State in the BTTG. Cook had better stats than Rudock against OSU, but Rudock was not far behind (despite having to play them in Value City Horseshoe Stadium).
I guess my biggest takeaway from this is that the sky is most definitely NOT falling for Michigan with Rudock as our probable starter. Far from it. If MSU can have success with a "game manager" at QB, then so can we. Also, HARBAUGH.
Note: while the QBs' respective ratings in the 2014 Maryland and Nebraska games might appear to be a sloppy copy/paste job due to them being the same, they are in fact correct. In both games, Rudock had a 112.9 and Cook had a 110.2.
Come on, man. Don't believe the hype. You don't find it a little absured that a guy who throws 24 TDs and 58% completions appeared on many draft boards last year right along side guys like Winston and Marriota who throw for 4,000 yards, 40 TDs, and have completion percentages in the high 60s? You take away MSU's defense and W-L record, and just evaluate Cook on his stats, and he's a 3-5th rounder at best.
Nothing about my post should read to you as "Connor Cook is bad at football." The point I'm making is that he is overrated, and Rudock is underrated, based on the #s.
The guy has a strong enough arm to make all the throws (not Henne strong, but a average NFL arm). He has great touch over the top of the defense. He's a good enough athlete to relieve pressure. He makes many good throws on the move. He still makes some really bad decisions (mostly, he struggles when teams are heavily multiple in coverage), that and throwing to RBs are his major weakness (his footwork gets sloppy when he gets lazy which hurts his accuracy, when he sets his feet he has really good accuracy).
I've watched him progress from a guy that they didn't trust throwing more than double slants and mesh concepts to a guy throwing triangle concepts whenever they ask him to. If you said this after 2013 I'd have no issue believing you, but they guy got significantly better and played really, really well in 2014.
He isn't without flaws, neither was Henne. But Cook is good enough now and has potential in his game to improve in the areas where he's weakest. Winston and Mariota were the top 2 picks, I said Cook will be selected in the first 3 rounds. He would have gone ahead of Grayson and Mannion last year, two guys selected in the third round that Cook was better than. I don't know what hype I'm supposed to be believing here, I'm not calling him the second coming or Tom Brady, but he's a really good college QB.
Well, I think Cousins was drafted in about the right spot, and everything I've seen those two players do tells me Cousins is better than Cook.
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October 22nd, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
Nice comparison, thanks for the post.
I'm pretty optimistic about Ruduck and I think with his experience and Harbaugh's guidance he is going to have a good year.
I know a lot of people like to pick on Ohio State's schedules, but conference-wise, msu has had some pretty damn favorable schedules as well.
Its almost ridiculous to point out that they haven't played at Ohio State since 2011.
They are paying for that this year though.
Well, they'll get that chance this year. But if last year in EL is any indication, it won't be pretty. OSU won in EL by 12, but MSU scored a garbage time TD, so the game was actually more lopsided than the score would indicate. They also play there in late November, when it will be blistering cold.
Their last score actually came after a pretty sketchy INT reversal - nothing new considering the venue.
It was a pretty thorough curbstomping for a team supposedly on par with Ohio State.
Their game at Ohio State is a guranteed loss, that will be uglier imo.
They've been crazy sheltered, especially with back-to-back home games against us. They haven't beaten us in A2 in 5 years.
Back to back home games with Ohio State as well, while complelety avoiding them 3 other times in the regular sesson recently.
I think it was way more than 3 times with OSU. MSU has put together a good program, but it's one that benefitted massively from the RR/Hoke era and low-level scheduling. While we played OSU (as we should) each year, MSU played Indiana. We'll now see how things go with the universe coming back into proper formation.
I like the comparison for what it is and it is helpful to look at common opponents (esp in Conf) when comparing the two. But more than an indictment of Cook, this comparison is pleasantly surprising for those who haven't followed Iowa/Rudock as closely.
And to that end, Cook has benefitted greatly from the success and exposure of MSU recently, the BTCC (mentioned) appearance and honestly from the sucess of former Sparties like Cousins (and even Hoyer and Stanton).
Cook also has that thing where he "wears the uniform well" and looks like a solid NFL back up.
I'm fine with Rudock and fully expect him to start this season for MICHIGAN. Beyond next year will be fun and interesting!!
I'd like to point out the very nice use of the correctly italicized see as a proper introductory signal supra. Excellent MGoBluebooking.
*high five*
I guess this kinda shows stats are sometimes garbage and misleading. All you have to do is watch a game and you know who's a better qb. Take the maize tinted goggles off.
Where are the wins stats in those games? How many of those games did Iowa win and how many did MSU win? If I'm comparing QB's and i see the big games that Cook lead MSU to win compared to JR, its not even close. Then I see that fact that Iowa isn't mad that their QB bolted for another school in the same conference, I'd be a little worried. I like how you're trying to talk yourself into JR but he's not the future of UM.
I'm not aguing that Rudock is the better QB. Wins are also credited to the defense, especially in MSU's case since their defense is so good, which is why it made sense to just look at how each QB farred against the same defenses when comparing them.
Also, welcome to the board.
"I guess my biggest takeaway from this is that the sky is most definitely NOT falling for Michigan with Rudock as our probable starter."
Joined today, first post is about how star-spangled awesome the MSU QB is compared to the Michigan QB.
....I like how you're trying to talk yourself into JR but he's not the future of UM.
Damn, really? You think not...? That is some deep insight right there, fella.
I'd agree he's not the future of UM given that he has only a single year of eligibility.
when he's on campus for one year.
who's your pick?
All I'm saying is if you do this exact same analysis for 2014 and add Gary Nova to those three teams, he finishes 3rd against Indiana and 1st for both Maryland and Nebraska, and he's easily the least talented of the 3 QBs named
Your prompt is about being sick of Cook's hype but it's not linked to his stats, it's linked to his physical body and a ton of NFL scouts believing he would make a strong QB in the NFL - and statistically that analysis isn't a perfect comparison to actually draw any conclusions without weighing tons of contextual points (were there injuries on either side, wind/weather in general, did a strong running game open up things more for Cook and inflate those numbers)
Let it be known, I personally think Devin Gardner has more NFL potential as a QB than Cook by far so obviously I'm not agreeing with anybody, am a total homer and would be laughed at by most scouts (am I crazy, I think his potential is insane), but let's just celebrate Rudock and leave Cook out of this. I also hate Sparty so arguing about the validity of this analysis is not me saying I think Cook is better than Rudock or even a good QB in general
I'd love to get your take on which UofM players have more potential than Shilique C.
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Says Magnus.
midwest area. These are their thoughts on both QBs in which they've seen in all-22 films.
Cook:
Fearless QB who has strong arm and can make all throws. When his footwork is set, he is very accurate and can make bucket throws. Oddly, he is more accurate to his left as opposed to his right, but that's due to his footwork which he can be lazy at times. Solid accuracy from short to intermediate but iffy accuracy in deep ball. Solid athlete who can escape pressure and is a rhythm thrower who at his best when it's 3-5 step drops. Cook has a tendency to trust his arm too much which is why he takes chances. In addition to it, he struggles when there's pressure in his face.
Both don't have a final grade on Cook, but both have said mid 2nd to late 2nd rounder if the draft were to start today which is a starting QB in their book.
Rudock:
He's just an okay college QB but won't amount much in the NFL. Despite the completion percentage, his accuracy in intermediate to deep ball are awful. Very indecisive and doesn't trust what he sees with his eyes. Rudock would rather take a sack as opposed to throwing to WRs who are open in deep ball. Decent arm and is a solid athlete who can escape pressure.
Like Cook, they don't have a final grade on Rudock, but they have him at UDFA right now.
Obviously, both have senior season to change their evaluations. They thought that the B1G QBs are awful as whole. They believed that Hackenberg, Cardale Jones, Cook are draftable prospects out of all of the B1G draft eligible QB. They have Braxton Miller at RB/WR.
Great info. Thanks.
Rudock doesnt have a NFL arm. He is basically a middle class man's Cousins. The Lions have a very accurate QB who sits as 3rd string for them who won nearly everything in college but has a spaghetti arm. You need to have a big arm to make those out throws vs NFL CBs.
Cook the jury will be out on how he performs when actually facing a pass rush. It would have been interesting to flip Hack and Cook last year to see how the 2 would have done. I'd imagine Hack would have had a splendid year as well when you only get sacked 10x in a season. MSU was #4 in the country on that count.
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/468
Again, most games Cook didn't even suffer a grass stain - compare that to the hell guys like Gardner and Hack went thru. Hack got sacked 44 (!!!) times last year.
Very nice work. After the last seven years, I'm having trouble mustering any optimism, so I appreciate any help I can get.
Hard to say. Rudock is not playing on the Iowa team from which these stats come. And State had a good team around Cook. Your QB does not need impressive numbers when your team dominates possession and can run the ball. What's uncertain about Michigan football is not the QB position, but the new system.
NO NO NO. COOK'S PERFORMANCE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PLAYERS AROUND HIM OR THE FACT THAT HE BENEFITS FROM HAVING THE BEST DEFENSE IN THE CONFERENCE. HE DESERVES ALL THE CREDIT FOR HIS WINS. /s
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Excellent post OP. I didn't so much interpret this as a knock on Cook, but rather that Rudock isn't far behind by any means. I'm hoping that he can translate better playcalling and hopefully better OL play than he's had into more success, and can really surprise people this year.