Results of last night's survey:

Submitted by Lordfoul on
So I compiled the data and the results are in. Iowa: We had 79 total votes. Here are the averages at various points in the compilation process: @20 votes the general outlook was gloomy, with a 42.0% chance of Michigan victory. @40 votes it remained about the same, with a 42.2% chance of victory. @55 votes we saw a huge push from the more optimistic fans, raising the average to 46.3% chance of victory. @75 votes the trend continued to rise, raising the average to 46.8% chance of victory. (And I went to bed) Four more votes were cast in the late night, bringing the average up a large jump to 48.8% chance of victory. So interesting results there. It would seem that the fans here generally feel Michigan has a solid chance at victory this weekend, but overall less than 50/50. This makes sense since it is a road game. It is also wildly optimistic IME. The really interesting part is how the voting trended over the course of the evening. Started at 9pm with several pessimistic views (including my own which may have swayed the votes?) outnumbering the optimists. Then as the night went on, the fans here seemed to just grow more and more confident in their team. Especially amazing was the 2pt jump with just 4 votes cast in the late night. This trend held for the other two polls as well... Del St (removed 3 obvious outliers): 36 Total Votes @11 votes: 96.9% Chance of Victory (COV) @28 votes: 97.6% COV @36 votes: 97.8% (Includes late night) A smaller sample size but with the tighter distribution the trend is just as pronounced. Penn St: 12 Total Votes @10 votes: 42.2% COV @12 votes: 44.3% COV (Includes late night) Again, a sample size now approaching not useful but the trend is still there, at least possibly. So why does our overall outlook of this team rise with the passing of the evening? Or perhaps we just feel better about the team's progress after healthy discussion? Maybe it is just the booze talking? What do you all think? Maybe just a statistical hiccup?
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Tater

October 5th, 2009 at 8:06 AM ^

We are probably just a little bit biased; consequently, the numbers should skew toward UM winning. Most people here seem to be fans who love our favorite team. That's why people who make money gambling on a regular basis don't bet on their home teams.

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

bouje

October 5th, 2009 at 8:51 AM ^

and some other words: Knee jerk reaction to the loss becomes more optimistic views after the loss settled in.

Joined: 09/30/2008

MGoPoints: 4705

Ryano

October 5th, 2009 at 10:22 AM ^

The knee jerk is right on. Sort of like what happened last week against MSU; the line opened with State a 1 point underdog after losing to Wisconsin, but by the end of the week swung several points in their favor once everyone collectively came to their senses.

Joined: 10/27/2008

MGoPoints: 509

BrewHawk

October 5th, 2009 at 10:29 AM ^

I figured I'd just reply in this one. Hope OP doesn't mind. I just wanted to come over and give my two cents on what to expect from Iowa and also see what you guys had to say about what the Wolverines have to offer since this version is new to us. As far as the Hawks are concerned, we've seen very good defense, inconsistent offense and fairly solid special teams. The offense has been inconsistent largely because of players missing. We started the year with two OL out against UNI, got one of them back for ISU, but lost another (Bulaga) for the next three games, with Tony Moeaki largely absent during most of this time as well. Also out for the season is Jewel Hampton, the projected starting RB, but the two freshmen are doing just fine in his stead. Wegher is a good one. Also out here and there has been Johnson-Koulianos, but we have been as deep as ever in our receiving corps, so this hasn't been as big an issue. The other story on offense has been Ricky "Pick-Six" Stanzi. At times he's looked like the field general we need, and at others, he's giving up six points faster than you can say Oskie! He has shown improvement this year from one game to the next, but his penchant for throwing balls right at 2-3 defenders is mindboggling. We are going deep more than I've seen in the recent past, mostly due to the talent of McNutt and Stross on the outside. Moeaki's replacement, Reisner, is a very good receiving TE, but not quite the complete package with blocking ability that Tony is. Also lost in the shuffle has been great play from our FB, Brett Morse, who is a very solid blocker and decent receiving threat out of the backfield, but has seen maybe one carry so far this year. Will throw this out there for now, need to go to work. Defense to follow... Feel free to throw in details about your guys please.

Joined: 10/05/2009

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