Recruiting "bust" factor

Submitted by Michael on
Now that the Signing Day 2009 has passed, we won't really know how good our class is for another 2-3 years. It is commonly accepted that a lot of highly-touted recruits turn out to be "busts," and that a lot of guys who don't get a lot of attention turn out to be quite productive. I've been doing some thinking and I'd like to start a discussion which addresses the following issues (and more, if necessary): 1) Is there any reliable means to chart the bust factor of a given class? It doesn't seem like there would be, due to the subjective nature of what is a "success" and what is a "bust," although I know Brian has tackled this issue before. 2) How much does coaching play into whether or not an athlete is a bust or a success? 3) Does RichRod's track record of getting "more from less" equate to a lower amount of "busts?" Obviously it's too early to tell what RR can do with talent like he has at Michigan, but I would like to pose the argument that RichRod is the BEST coach in NCAA when it comes to the identification and development of talent. Thoughts?
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Recruiting

baorao

February 5th, 2009 at 5:24 PM ^

I hate to muddy an already confusing and hard to define conversation, but you aren't going to be able to have this conversation as it pertains to Rich Rodriguez until you account for this: http://westvirginia.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=908388 Last year's class--Stewart and Holliday's first--including 30 commitments. According to Rivals numbers, six are gone.. In 2007, WVU received commitments from 28 student-athletes, 11 of which are no longer Mountaineers. The '06 group included 16 commits, but 9 of them fail to remain. The '05 class, 32 in number, lost 14. In '04, 24 committed, yet 13 failed to work out. The '03 group included 24 commits, including 14 who never worked out. In '02, those numbers were 34 and 11. While recruiting rankings are fallible, the only fact we know is that if a prospect fails to remain at his school, he never plays. In the vernacular, he is a miss. According to Rivals records, 78 commitments have left the WVU campus for one reason or another in the last seven cycles.

Joined: 08/08/2008

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jblaze

February 5th, 2009 at 7:30 PM ^

RR needed to take some chances on questionable kids, hoping that they would qualify. It's one of the ways that he built up WVU's program. That helps explain why he was going >25 in '03, '05, & '07.

Joined: 08/29/2008

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J. Lichty

February 5th, 2009 at 5:51 PM ^

Brian Cook broke this down a few months ago, but there was quite a bit of attrition under Lloyd as well. Some legal related, some injury related, a few transfers. It happens everywhere. Last year was understandable in terms of attrition given the new system and new coaching staff. With respect to ther recruits who left from last year's class - only three - Witherspoon, the Ohio LB and McGuffie, Witherspoon failed to qualify, the Ohio kid and McGuffie wanted to be closer to home. I don't think that reflects negatively on RR at all. I think it is also important to note that RR was "forced" to take more chances on kids at WVU and that may explain some of it. In short, yes let's keep an eye on it, but all inidcations are that so far kids are buying into the program.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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orillia

February 5th, 2009 at 5:54 PM ^

Rich Rod is good at maximizing talent perhaps but I would have to say that Mike Riley at Oregon State is the best. Oregon State never gets a blue chip athlete but yet they win 9 or 10 games every year in the pac 10. They always start slow but finish strong. Mike Riley has never lost a bowl game.

Joined: 07/22/2008

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readyourguard

February 5th, 2009 at 7:03 PM ^

I was thinking about this exact thing today. How can you really tell if a kid is a success or failure? I was thinking of putting together a point system for recruits. I haven't got the details together yet, but say you assign a point value for: recruiting "stars" Years in the program Games started All conference honors All America honors Points would be deducted for, say: transfers suspensions arrests (or something to that effect) If I have some time to burn, I'm going to see if I can make up a chart.

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