PSU Odds / PSU on the Road
Line is currently PSU -4.5 at Michigan. Kind of insulting I'd say seeing as how we've lost by a total of 8 points all season and are undefeated at home.
It is worth noting that PSU has only played one game on the road thus far (@Illini), making it the "least road tested" team in the B10 this season.
I think the line is a little high given PSU's terrible line play this year, the lack of a top notch WR (unlike last year), their inexperience on the road, and Michigan's historical dominance of the school.
Thoughts?
October 19th, 2009 at 5:58 PM ^
Betting trends are 82% for Michigan to cover that spread. With Vegas giving 3 points to the good guys for being at home, that means the wiseguys see PSU as a touchdown favorite on a neutral field. TOugh to call, but I wouldn;t be surpised if we won or lost this game. Really a toss-up.
October 19th, 2009 at 6:01 PM ^
13th ranked PSU -4.5 is insulting? You're insane.
October 19th, 2009 at 7:20 PM ^
1) Michigan undefeated at home
2) Michigan certainly looked better (on the road) against Iowa than PSU (at home) did, in the same (night) setting
I was thinking more like -2.5.
But if you still want to simply look at the rankings (we're in the top 30 BTW), and make your bets based strictly off of them, go ahead. That's insane.
October 19th, 2009 at 7:29 PM ^
So you're insulted by a difference of 2 points? Maybe I'd understand how you could be insulted if it was PSU -21, but by less than a touchdown?
October 19th, 2009 at 10:16 PM ^
You don't gamble much, do you? The difference in -4.5 versus -2.5 is much greater than say, the difference between -15 and -17.
October 19th, 2009 at 10:43 PM ^
I just think "insulting" is a goofy word to describe how you feel about a point spread. But to each his own.
October 19th, 2009 at 6:01 PM ^
- Uncertainty about Tate's health
- Propensity of Defense to yield big plays (3rd and 24, arrrrgh)
October 19th, 2009 at 6:32 PM ^
we don't do well against good tight ends :(
October 20th, 2009 at 7:58 AM ^
The Titanic didn't do well against the iceberg either.
October 19th, 2009 at 6:04 PM ^
It's a tough one to call. You're right that PSU is untested...the only good team PSU played is Iowa who they lost to. A large part of PSUs ranking/perception is obviously derived from last year since they haven't really been tested this year...again except for Iowa.
That having been said, I think there's a little more stability in the Clark/Royster combo than what we have. I'm not really familiar with the state of the PSU defense though. I have to admit the only game of theirs I've watched this year is PSU/Iowa.
All things considered, I would say that it's fair that they're the favorites.
If I was putting money on it, I would say it's more likely than not that either we will win OR PSU will win by less than 4-5 points.
October 19th, 2009 at 6:07 PM ^
I was nervous about Michigan State, terrified of Iowa. This game I feel a lot favors Michigan:
Our DLine, a very good unit, against a bad OLine.
Our CB not being overly threatened by any game-breaking WR.
RR is going to go pretty wide and deep into the playbook.
I like Michigan...comfortably.
October 19th, 2009 at 6:18 PM ^
Quarless is a good one.
Edit: Oops, same thread, thought this was the other one.
October 19th, 2009 at 6:07 PM ^
You wont need those 4.5 points.
October 19th, 2009 at 6:43 PM ^
I'm thinking that if Minor RAGE can put up 2 TD's on a bum ankle and Denard can run the offense like he did on that 2nd to last drive AT Iowa, we have a solid shot at winning here. Penn State only managed to put up 10 pts at home against Iowa, 7 of which came on the first play which was probably because of some missed assignment. If our D can hold, I think we have a solid shot.
October 19th, 2009 at 7:36 PM ^
Assuming we get Molk, Forcier, and Brown back, our offense is not going to have problems putting up points. The only issue is whether we can stop PSU's offense. I think we can, given that it's at home and Iowa had no problem stifling them.
October 19th, 2009 at 8:11 PM ^
I had this one pencilled in as a loss at the beginning of the year, but I still think UM has a chance:
1. PSU hasn't really showed a lot this year; their schedule is weak and they lost their only really tough game.
2. PSU seems to have abandoned their spiffy, new "Spread HD" offense this year. I'm sure it's still there somewhere, but I have seen a lot of pro-set when watching their "highlights."
3. UM was upset by MSU. The upset gods owe them one. This week is as good a week as any.
4. DSU. It was like a bye week, and we should see a healthier Forcier, Minor, and Brown.
5. The return of David Molk. I think he will help stabilize the OL and we may see their best performance yet this week.
UM isn't expected to win this game, and they are coming off of an ego-boosting win over DSU; PSU is still trying to prove that they deserved their preseason ranking. I think there will be a lot more pressure on PSU than UM. Hopefully, this helps make a difference.
October 19th, 2009 at 8:31 PM ^
Please remember that the bookies could care less who wins the game and at least at the beginning of the week by how much. All they are trying to do is generate the same number and amount of bets on both teams. If a lot of people start betting Michigan at 4.5, I guarantee that the spread will go down. Similarly if there's a lot of PSU action, it will go up.
October 20th, 2009 at 9:35 AM ^
I doubt I will be able to get the 4.5 points when I get to Vegas on Thursday. I expect the number to get bet down.