Preseason SP+ by Conference
I had some free time to play around this weekend, so I thought I’d look at the preseason SP+ rankings by conference. I only include the P5 conferences, but I have all the data so if you are interested in another conference, just let me know in the comments.
I'm also thinking about posting these as they are updated throughout the season, along with these other graphs. Is there anything else you would like to see?
Here are some graphs for your viewing enjoyment:
OVERALL SP+ SCORES
I first graphed the overall SP+ ratings by team and conference. The horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference.
According to these preseason SP+ ratings, the SEC is by far the strongest conference, which, OK...
But what seems a bit fishy is that, according to SP+, the 2nd to last SEC team (South Carolina) has a higher rating that the average team from all other conferences other conference. The 2nd worst team in the SEC has a higher SP+ rating than 11 ACC teams, 8 B1G teams, 10 Big 12 teams, and 6 Pac 12 teams!
SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE
Which teams are the most well-rounded? Which are offensive/defensive teams only? Which are, well, just bad at everything?
Keep in mind that you want HIGHER offensive scores, and LOWER defensive scores. So when looking at this graph:
- Teams in the top-left quadrant are good at offense and defense
- Teams in the top-right quadrant are good at offense and bad at defense
- Teams in the bottom-left quadrant are good at defense and bad at offense
- Teams in the bottom-right are bad at both offense and defense
The dashed lines represent the average offense and defense SP+ scores for all P5 teams.
Anything you find interesting?
August 19th, 2023 at 7:25 PM ^
These are both great data points to plot, and I'd enjoy seeing this updated weekly. I love the easy visual comparing conference strength.
I would recommend switching your data ordering on the 2nd graph so the top right quadrant is best - that's what our minds have been trained to expect.
August 19th, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^
Thanks!
I agree about the 2nd graph and I can easily reverse it next time.
August 19th, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^
South Carolina was a decent team last year, or at least finished well. Moreover, their average recruiting class is higher than the BigTen average. I think that's fair to have South Carolina comparable to Minnesota or Iowa.
August 19th, 2023 at 7:59 PM ^
I agree with this. No weeks off in the SEC except when they play the local community college.
Would be interesting to see conference average opponent rating. Wonder how much only 8 conference games brings the SEC average down.
August 19th, 2023 at 8:07 PM ^
Honest question: Are there SP+ data for FCS teams?
August 19th, 2023 at 9:08 PM ^
He had it last year: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1llrN8luL0XWuP8Y-Pb1NXKU84JhXLeUPafy1RfITEDw/edit#gid=1139548129
Even has D2, D3 & NAIA. Dude is a geek for small school ball.
August 19th, 2023 at 9:09 PM ^
Thanks, Chuck!
August 19th, 2023 at 11:26 PM ^
Any chance you have access to 2021 S&P data for small schools? D2 and D3 in particular.
August 20th, 2023 at 7:23 AM ^
I did find that I still had the bookmark stored for 2021:
August 19th, 2023 at 8:03 PM ^
I agree about S. Carolina and I think they're a team to look out for in the East this year.
I guess what I was trying to get at is that the 2nd worst SEC team is better than all of those other teams. I'm not sold that (1) S. Carolina is the 2nd worst in the SEC, or that (2) Mizzou, TAMU, Miss. St., Auburn, Kentucky, etc. are also better than all of those teams.
I'm looking forward to seeing how these change when more data are available.
August 19th, 2023 at 8:06 PM ^
That's fair.
August 19th, 2023 at 11:30 PM ^
I'm just not a believer in Spencer Rattler. Dude sees the rush and panics.
August 19th, 2023 at 8:06 PM ^
One key thing of note is that all 4 of our new 2024 expansion teams will help our average.
The SEC also has their 2 expansion teams above their average, although Oklahoma not by much.
August 19th, 2023 at 10:05 PM ^
All the new additions, both the 4 to thy B1G and the 2 to the SEC, slot in between the current Tier 1and Tier 2 groups is each conference.
While it won't stay that clean, I do think that is representative of the moves. These are teams that are good enough to be attractive additions, but not good enough to be happy staying where they were.
August 19th, 2023 at 8:59 PM ^
Maybe this has been explained before, but is SP+ offense the number of points a team would score against an average FBS team and SP+ defense the points allowed?
August 19th, 2023 at 9:03 PM ^
I'm pretty sure that's how it is interpreted, but I would love to hear if there is some other interpretation of these numbers.
The Overall is just offense minus defense, which supports the way you (and I) interpret it.
August 19th, 2023 at 9:13 PM ^
- Following the Big XII could be a delightful mess!
- There's no bigger gap between a conference's elite and the 2nd tier than B1G
- PAC12's best defenses are barely better than average
EDIT: I'll add another...
- The 4 PAC12 => B1G teams would be among the top 6 B1G offenses, providing decent balance to 80% of the league which is top-heavy on defense.
August 20th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
Here's another (I could come up with observations all day long!):
- Teams w/ SP+ below zero:
- ACC: FOUR!
- PAC12: three
- B1G: Two
- SEC: One
- Big XII: The ONLY conference with NONE
August 20th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
The Big 12 ratings are going to be fun to watch throughout the season, especially the new teams. How much are the new teams' current ratings influenced by playing non-Big 12 competition last year and how much will their ratings go down when they start playing P5 competition?
August 20th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
Yea...somebody's gotta finish 2-7/3-6.
The 1-133 rankings I posted recently indicate that the preseason perception is that all 4 of the new teams are among the bottom half of the conference.
August 19th, 2023 at 10:12 PM ^
Stanford... oh how you have fallen.
August 20th, 2023 at 7:42 AM ^
Are FCS schools accounted for in the rating system?
August 20th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
That's a good question and I'm not sure of the answer.
I can't think of how they would be included in the rating system because they both have different reference points. SP+ is based on how well a team would perform against the average FBS team, and I imagine the SP+ for FCS does something similar for teams compared to the average FCS team. So it doesn't seem appropriate to just plug in the FCS SP+ when calculating strength of schedule or similar.
August 20th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
That 1st graph is great data visualization. Shows why the SEC is generally considered the best overall conference - that floor is really high. It's not that everyone is top 10, but most everyone is at least mediocre.
August 20th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
A friendly reminder that while I think SP+ is one of the best analytics systems out there, even Bill's model will get half of its preseason projections incorrect.
August 20th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
This is definitely an important caveat. I just think it's fun to get a starting point and watch these throughout the year.