pontificating on USC/TSDS
I don't want to get flamed here, I just want to acknowledge a few specific facts and open up the conversation to broader discussion.
Fully respecting that USC jumped Ohio State this week as the fourth spot in the CFP with the understanding that if they win, they're in. They would be a one-loss conference champion and particularly this year, that would qualify them on the basis of, if literally nothing else, lack of competition. They control their destiny and that is literally the only thing for which you can ask in this beautifully stupid sport.
But if they lose to Utah, again, they would then be 11-2, and a pretty mild case could be made that, at minimum, Clemson (should they beat UNC) would have a better resume, also at 11-2 and a conference championship. And no one thinks Clemson deserves a shot at the CFP this year (correctly and for good reason!)
This isn't meant to be contrarian or to raise ire, it's just acknowledging that if we froze everything today without any further games to be played, and the CFP rankings were held accordingly, do we *really* think USC should be ranked ahead of Ohio State?
November 30th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
it's just acknowledging that if we froze everything today without any further games to be played, and the CFP rankings were held accordingly, do we *really* think USC should be ranked ahead of Ohio State?
Well USC didn't get their face beat in by 22 goddamn points on their home field, so yes.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
Thread closed. This is all.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
Current upvotes in this sub-thread are 42-19. Need another field goal.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
The evolution of board posts following an exciting win or a tragic last second loss:
1. Day 1: Lots of "woo-woo, fucking A" posts. Always welcomed - fun to read
2. Day 2: "Where were you then" posts begin to appear. Comparisons to great Michigan wins (or losses) hit the board.
3. Day 3: Counterfactual posts rule. "Well Actshully OSU could've and should've won if only X". Lots of speculation on the would've/could've/should've aspect of the game.
4. Day 4: Random thoughts now take over (you are here BTW). Posts asking questions like "hey, how many yards did Corum get on Saturday" and "when will they announce which side of the field Michigan is on for the Natty" can be found.
5. Day 5 (big win only): Now we start seeing posts about our next game and our next opponent. Attention starts to turn to what's next. That's coming up tomorrow.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
Re: #5, I have a Purdue vs Top ranked teams diary planned for tomorrow. Just waiting til the posting diarrhea subsides
November 30th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
And that's the problem. YOU actually have content that would be interesting to read but it's buried under the avalanche of random thoughts that the OPs cant bear to put inside an existing thread lest the rest of the world not find out things like how many times you rewatched the game already.
I was hoping they'd pin the MgoMeet up thread cause that also has value but no - we need to read about someone wondering when they'll announce which semifinal game Michigan is playing in forgetting entirely that all four semifinal teams have games this Saturday. It's now 35 threads deep and sinking fast.
November 30th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
So if I wanted to watch Michigan win the Natty in LA and of course the playoff before that, how would I buy my tickets? What's a hotel? Could I fly or would I have to walk Brady Hoke style? /s
November 30th, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^
Do you also yell "down in front!" to people in the stadium? (i kid, i kid)
I love this place, but some of you whine entirely too much about how random strangers on the internet don't behave the way you want them to. Perhaps I've spent too much time in less disciplined, less structured, more cess-pool-y corners of the internet, but, c'mon, man...
just roll your eyes and scroll past the stuff you don't like. and, of course, GO BLUE!
November 30th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
Yeah we even skipped right over a fire Juwan Howard post. Things are really cooking this week.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
You’re wrong it’s Day 23-45
November 30th, 2022 at 2:01 PM ^
My cat's breath smells like cat food.
November 30th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
TURDS The University Right Down South
Get it right.
November 30th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
Fuck Ohio
play defense
November 30th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
Yes. They are both one loss teams, one qualified for Conf. Championship and one didn't.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
when you lose and how you lose matters
November 30th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
yes. trojans lost by 1 point on the road to the #12 team (at the time) who is currently the #11 team.
AN osu got fucking blasted at home by us in the biggest, most important game since 2006.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
In pristine weather conditions.
November 30th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
I understand we were missing at least one pretty good player on each side of the ball. True?
November 30th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
I'd put Bama above OSU at this point.
Bama lost 2 games by a total of 4 points.
On the road.
In the SEC.
On the last plays of the games.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
Should a loss when other teams aren't playing shouldn't count. Yes USC would have 2 losses. They also played 1 more game than OSU.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
Well I don't think you can only count the game if they win. If USC wins and TCU loses, do you put USC ahead of TCU? If so, why?
November 30th, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
Yes. Because they both played. But teams sitting at home watching on TV don't jump teams that earned the right to play another game.
Seems pretty simple.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
It will literally be to the advantage of the Pac12 to find an excuse to cancel that game as it would assure their conference gets in the playoffs. Obviously that won't happen.
It seems cheap to penalize USC for making it to the CCG, a feat that OSU could not do.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
Counter-argument there ..... OSU would be in the B1G TItle Game if the B1G went division-less like the Pac-12 did.
Now, of course, USC would be in their TItle Game regardless of division structure.
But an OSU partisan would have a little bit of a point if they argued "we're only out because our conference structure is different than others."
November 30th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
I'm open to canceling all conference title games that don't make sense. Let's watch the ACC, AAC, SWAC and maybe move Army-Navy up a weekend and get cracking on the celebration bowl.
November 30th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
Even worse for TCU as they already beat K State. At least USC should be motivated to redeem their one loss. The Big 12 should actually cancel their game to assure they get a team in. I mean it’s chaos there now that the only good DC in Big 12 history is at OSU. Anything can happen.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
Part of the problem is thinking Clemson at 11-2 and USC at 11-2 are the same. They are not.
Clemson is a dumpster fire that sometimes gets mistaken for a roaring fireplace when compared to the rest of the ACC.
Personally, I think the current top 4 should remain even if they lose their championship games.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Exactly. Clemson is getting by on brand name (from when they actually had elite, let alone good, QBs) and skating by in a historically wretched ACC. Put a Duke logo on their helmet and they would be #17.
Conference rankings
Here are the FBS's 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:
1. SEC: 14.6 average SP+ (34.7 average offensive SP+, 20.6 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 12.6 average SP+ (36.7 offense, 24.4 defense)
3. Big Ten: 9.1 average SP+ (28.0 offense, 19.0 defense)
4. Pac-12: 6.1 average SP+ (34.6 offense, 28.5 defense)
5. ACC: 2.2 average SP+ (27.5 offense, 25.5 defense)
6. AAC: 0.9 average SP+ (31.4 offense, 30.4 defense)
7. Sun Belt: -2.4 average SP+ (24.7 offense, 27.3 defense)
8. Conference USA: -8.4 average SP+ (26.7 offense, 34.9 defense)
9. Mountain West: -10.7 average SP+ (17.4 offense, 27.9 defense)
10. MAC: -13.1 average SP+ (21.1 offense, 33.5 defense)
November 30th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
That's what I think. The playoffs should be completely locked in. All 4 teams can lose this weekend and it doesn't matter to me. I could see maybe some seeding change if there are very specific 4 game outcomes, but like a Michigan loss combined with a TCU win doesn't change anything.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
Yes, I *really* think that USC should be ranked ahead of OSU.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
They would be a one-loss conference champion and particularly this year, that would qualify them on the basis of
It qualifies them on the basis of being conference champion.
FIFY.
USC would have 3 top 25 wins -- more than Michigan and the same as UGA.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
According to Massey's average of all polls in existence, we've beaten 3 ranked teams in the top 25.
#3 Ohio State, #7 Penn State, #24 Illinois
November 30th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
Yeah, I'm counting current rankings.
Like nobody would give someone credit for Clemson being a quality win given how the season was played out. But Clemson was ranked #4 at one time.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
To answer your question, USC absolutely deserves to be ranked ahead of OSU. USC lost by 1 point on the road OSU lost by 22 at home.
The problem this year is that there are really only 5 viable teams for 4 spots. 11-1 OSU happens to be one of them. I don’t think the committee would take an 11-2 USC because no 2-loss team has ever made the playoffs. I also don’t think an 11-1 non-division champion should back in for not playing in a championship game.
I would only consider the conference championships as tie breakers among the top 4, and the only thing teams would be playing for this week (other than winning their conference) is seeding.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
USC has wins over #16, #17 & #19 in the current rankings with a chance to avenge their only loss of the year on the road to the current #11 team who went for 2 at home with less than a minute to play to win by 1.
OSU has wins over #8 & #19. They also have a 22 point loss at home. Their third best win is over 8-4 Iowa? or 7-5 Maryland?
I absolutely would have USC over OSU at this exact moment. If USC loses again to Utah I think that's a fair conversation, even though I hate that teams who play on conference championship weekend are potentially being punished in favor of those who didn't qualify.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
I fully disagree with the premise that USC losing in the CCG should lead to a "fair conversation." A game that OSU doesn't get to play in shouldn't be part of an apples-to-apples comparison. If so, their failure to appear should count as an L, much as if USC just respectfully declined to appear in theirs.
I would be making this same argument (and I did before The Game) if Michigan had lost. Though something tells me the media wouldn't be having this conversation at all about whether Michigan "deserved" to be in still.
I can't think of anything more contemptuous than looking at a team who has won the head-to-head twice in as many years, by an 87-50 margin, and thinking, "Nah. The other guy is still better. You can't do it three times!" Bet.
I don't know that I would want that kind of smoke if I'm a Buckeye, honestly. Sure, going on to win an improbable national championship after losing The Game would be great. But the chance of getting bounced by UGA or losing to Michigan again? I think that takes a lot of shine off the brand that has you even in that conversation. I haven't looked to see what the prevailing thoughts are on 11W or elsewhere, but I'd have to think Ryan Day's future would immediately look uncertain.
EDIT: A quick peek over there does in fact suggest that Buckeyes really do think we simply "lucked" into the 22-point win on Saturday. I do not wish well for them.
November 30th, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
Let the Buckeyes think the 45-23 Michigan win in their horseshoe was “luck.” That’s the same delusional thinking at halftime that enabled Day (proudly sitting on third base) to conclude that “Hey, we’re up 20-17, we don’t need to change anything!”
November 30th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
USC’s loss was a 1 point loss on the road, it was also 6 weeks ago so the argument can be made that they’ve improved a lot since then. Indeed they do seem to have improved, the last 2 weeks they beat UCLA on the road then dominated ND.
OSU’s loss was a 22 point loss at home, and it was just a few days ago. Additionally, they looked shaky vs Maryland the week before.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
and for 3 qtrs vs PSU and for 4 qtrs vs NW......
November 30th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
the way things look right now, it seems a pretty solid bet that a USC loss puts the Buckeyes in as the 4-seed. my personal response to this is two-fold: on one hand, I want to see OSU have to pay full price for losing THE GAME, especially given that the price decreases significantly in a couple years when the playoff expands; on the other hand, after what Michigan just did to them, I can't imagine the Buckeyes want anything to do with Georgia.
While I don't want to see the Buckeyes make the playoff, I can think of worse ways to end a college football season than watching the Buckeyes get their asses kicked twice, and having to chew on it for the next 8 months.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
if we froze everything today without any further games to be played, and the CFP rankings were held accordingly, do we *really* think USC should be ranked ahead of Ohio State?
It doesn't even need to be a theoretical thought exercise. USC is ranked ahead of OSU, at the end of the regular season. QED.
An apples-to-apples comparison of their seasons has to leave out a CCG because OSU didn't earn one.
November 30th, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
I completely disagree that the conference championship games should be left out of the equation because some teams don't get to play them. They already have different schedules with very few, if any, common opponents. Play the games and then determine who the best or most deserving teams are. You can't disregard games that are played. No two teams have the same schedules. Even if they play the same conference schedule, their non con games will be different.
I'll be honest...it seems like this argument is being made simply to discount OSU's chances at the playoff. I believe it makes us look scared of them. Even with the bad, horrible, embarrassing loss I believe they are more deserving than 2 loss Alabama and a 2 loss USC team that isn't a conference champion.
On a side note, I'd love to find out whether the committee attacks the 4 playoff teams from a "best four" or "most deserving four" thought process. They are not the same thing, but I don't think we will ever really know which angle they come at it from.
November 30th, 2022 at 4:14 PM ^
i think it's a fair point to acknowledge that as it stands now, after an equal number of games played, USC is ranked ahead of OSU. that USC *earned* an extra game could (likely would) be held against them if they failed to win that game, and I think that's what some people take issue with.
it's a by-product of a lack of clearly defined, objective metrics for determining the CFP rankings.
::shrug::
November 30th, 2022 at 5:29 PM ^
Here's a question then...
If we don't get the two long runs from Edwards and win 31-23 with the final 7 minutes of the game a defensive battle I think it is safe to say that their current resume keeps them in the 4th slot above USC for the time being. Then, if USC wins convincingly and the committee deems the two teams relatively equal, that Pac Championship gives them the bump they need to push up to 4.
In this scenario, USC played all season to achieve that PAC Championship, and it IS a part of their resume. Should it "not count" and OSU get the 4 seed?
This is why I don't like the argument that it shouldn't count against them if they lose. It sure as heck would help a team in a situation like I described. Win OR lose, it IS part of their resume and should be a part of the conversation.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
TSDS???... An Ohio State University is sufficient.
Go Cats!
I don't think this matters. I prefer a 12 or 16 team playoff, but things look good for what it is.
Where Michigan goes with a loss to Purdue makes my stomach turn. The *uckery lurks until this is fixed.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
If we lose to Purdue we are still 100% in. How on earth could an 11-1 OSU leapfrog a 12-1 Michigan after last weekend. No way a 2 loss team leapfrogs us either.
There is a chance TCU or USC also loses meaning if we were to lose we might wind up #3 or #4 at the worst.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
I was somewhat surprised the committee didn't have OSU at 4th and USC at 5th with the understanding that if USC wins, they'd leap an idle Buckeye team.
I think the complexion of the game matters. USC lost to Utah on a 2-PT conversion with 48 seconds left in the game @ Utah. If Utah blows the doors off of USC, OSU has a better chance.
Clemson at 9 means they are not in consideration for the playoff. There is so way they leapfrog Alabama, Tennessee, and Penn State with a win over UNC.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
I honestly think it ought to have been the other way around: OSU at #4 and USC at #5.
In this scenario, the Committee would have said, "11-1 regular season OSU has a better resume than 11-1 regular season USC. Apples-to-apples." However, this scenario also implicitly builds in the path that USC has earned by reaching its CCG to overtake that #4 spot if they win. A play-in.
As they did it in actuality, they made it clear that USC would be punished for performance in that CCG and OSU simply had to wait it out. Effectively a "play-out."
The distinction is subtle, and the end result is the same either way, but the way we get there is either intellectually honest or it isn't.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
There is no way you could justify putting an one-loss OSU team ahead of a won-loss USC team, given that the USC team beat more ranked teams and its loss was on the road and by one point in the last minute.
The honest approach by the CFP Committee would be "regular season decides the final four, and the championship games only affect seeding unless there are two teams in the championship game with the same RS record."
An 11-win OSU team still does not deserve to get in over an 11-win USC team. OSU has already forfeited their 13th game.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
I would say that it takes a lots of "guts" to post something like this...but I would be very wrong. Here, the correct word would be "ignorance". A one point loss...on the road...to the 11th ranked team with time expired versus a 22 point shellacking at home...by a team that is missing its best player on both the offense and defense-Seriously??? This is a pontification??????