Pickin' and Grinnin' - This Championship Games

Submitted by XM - Mt 1822 on December 2nd, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Mates,

Good morning to all.  Big day for our Wolverines down in Indy.  Many of you are there or on your way.  Jealous in a good way, have a great time and bring home the hardware.  Last night's final PAC12 (PAC2) Championship game was pretty entertaining and conventional wisdom seems to be that we'll play the Huskies in the "Granddaddy of them all"  for the last true Rose Bowl.  Can't wait to hear Keith Jackson on the call.  

That said, there are other Conference Championship games on today.  Let's pick the winners with the points - meaning for instance, Michigan is a 22 pt favorite over Iowa.  The call of the question isn't simply will Michigan win, but will our guys win by at least 22 points.   So with that idea in mind, here are the more interesting of the Championship games.  The Favorite team is listed first, the points, and then the underdog. 

Favorite                     Point Spread                      Underdog

Texas                                 15                                 Oklahoma St            Noon game

Georgia                              4.5                                'Bama                       4:00

Michigan                             22                                 Iowa Punters            8:00

Florida St                           1.5                                 Louisville (the block was clean!)  8:00

Some others of interest here:

Toledo                                7                                    Miami (NTM)           Noon

Boise St.                             2.5                                 UNLV                      3:00

Pick 'em with the points.  Have a great day.  Go Blue!  Get fired for tonight's festivities.  

XM 

 

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Football

maquih

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^

22 is a lot, and Iowa's defense is very very very good.  This could easily be something like 17-3 or 17-7.  We can score more points, but if we're up two scores, and with Iowa's pathetic offense there's no reason not to run for long drives and kick field goals (no fourth down conversion attempts) in the second half.

Joined: 11/04/2010

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Blinkin

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:36 AM ^

I think we're going to find out how good Iowa's defense really is. The "best" offense they've faced is Penn State who is 29th in SP+ iirc. And they gave up 31 points in that game because their crap offense couldn't stay on the field. Given that Michigan is substantially better on offense than Penn State, and comparable on defense, there may be a similar result. The question for me is, is Iowa's defense as good as advertised, or is it that they feasted on shitty B1G West offenses? 

Joined: 08/17/2022

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sum1valiant

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^

This is where I’m at. The fact that Penn St was able to accumulate almost 400 yards of offense against them tells me more than the other 11 games combined. IIRC, they still had McNamara and All for that game as well. Their offense likely won’t be able to cross the 50, and our offense will simply have too many opportunities. I love the over, and if I had to pick a side, I’d lay the points.

Joined: 09/01/2009

MGoPoints: 13025

Clarence Boddicker

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^

This games they're gonna plays!

Texas wins but doesn't cover.

Georgia beats Bama by 10.

Michigan wins by 30.

FSU loses.

Toledo and Miami...do, in fact, play each other.

Same with that other one.

 

Joined: 05/27/2011

MGoPoints: 70978

CarrIsMyHomeboy

December 2nd, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^

My worry:

The CFP may exclude FSU in that scenario and strongly invoke the “player health” fine print they adopted at CFP founding.

So wanting that chaos truly amps up the uncertainty, as I see it. The self-defeating risk in terms of our champ week rooting interest would be a semifinal vs … (prob not UGA) Alabama:

1. M

2. UWash

3. UT

4. Bama

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 7324

dakotapalm

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^

If we want a Pasadena game, we have to root for Georgia, right? If Alabama wins, that means Michigan and Washington are 1-2, and Rose Bowl goes with Washington, I think.

Which sucks, because I'd prefer Saban beat Kirby.

Joined: 07/15/2008

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Tunneler

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^

Can’t pick against the spread and pretend that my record would suggest anything other than an absolute crapshoot, but I’ve got Texas, Alabama, Michigan, & Louisville to win. Which is going to make things very interesting for the CFP selection committee. Michigan and Washington are in. Who are the other 2 teams? I know it sure as hell ain’t OSU, and that is wonderful.

Joined: 08/01/2013

MGoPoints: 26034

DonAZ

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^

If your scenario plays out, then I don't know how Texas is left out, so that would make it Michigan, Washington, and Texas.  All that's left is the final spot.

There's no way the committee leaves the SEC out completely.  No way whatsoever.  So if Alabama beats Georgia, who gets in is a function of how that game was played and won -- a tight squeaker puts Georgia in, I think; an Alabama blowout of Georgia puts Alabama in.

Joined: 12/05/2011

MGoPoints: 16763

Amazinblu

December 2nd, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^

If Alabama wins by a point - in regulation or triple OT, it doesn’t matter.  How can the committee rank Georgia ahead of a team they just lost to?  

Yes, the Committee could do that - but, how can it be justified?  Is it decided on the field or in a conference room?

Joined: 01/22/2010

MGoPoints: 41400

DonAZ

December 2nd, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^

Various arguments -- "body of work," or "best team."  Alabama has a loss to Texas, they also barely got by a very bad Auburn team.  Georgia had some close games, but none they realistically could have lost.

A counter-argument: let's say Alabama wins by 1 point ... how could they justify dropping a 12-1 Georgia team down from #1 to #5 or lower?  Or, to my point, if they will make certain an SEC team is in the playoffs, how could they justify jumping Alabama from #8 to #4?

Joined: 12/05/2011

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Blue Dispatch

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:25 AM ^

Rooting for Texas, Georgia, Florida St. all so that buckeye will not so much as sniff the playoffs and be officially eliminated from any CFP consideration. 

Also hoping we absolutely smoke iowa so that there is no question who is the best team in the big10. And..........watch that cowardly boot licker pettiti hand the trophy to Coach Harbaugh. 

All this happening today, can't wait.

Joined: 09/29/2016

MGoPoints: 9962

Logan88

December 2nd, 2023 at 8:38 AM ^

If you want OSU to be excluded you should probably be pulling for Bama. Bama would move ahead of OSU with a win over #1 Georgia but Georgia would probably NOT drop below OSU with a loss in the SEC championship game unless they got absolutely blown out.

Anyway on to the picks:

Texas wins but does NOT cover

Georgia wins and covers

UM wins but does NOT cover

FSU wins and covers (this is the one I am least confident about)

I don't know anything about the Group of Five games so I'll have to pass but it would be cool to see UNLV win the Mountain West since UM beat them earlier this season.

Joined: 01/05/2009

MGoPoints: 8078

Durham Blue

December 2nd, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^

Gonna go with Georgia and Michigan to cover.

I might go with OK St +15.  OK St is playing pretty well right now and 15 points seems generous.  Texas should win though.

I am kinda feeling Miami (NTM) +7.

No idea about FSU - Louisville.  I might put a small bet on Louisville moneyline.

 

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