Love it. Need some offense.
That was quicker than expected, but I wouldn’t expect them up this year. Hopefully they’ll get a good chunk of cuts in in Toledo this year. If they’re ready, then go for it but I don’t see it happening this year from a developmental standpoint.
Rogers has been a pleasant surprise so far. His defense is always strong and his offense may be coming around. Nice to have two young catchers with some possibility.
I admit I maybe catch 30-40% of the games, but Jake Rogers seems to strike out every time he's put into a pressure situation. Runner on 3rd with one out? Strikeout.
As soon as he gets 2 strikes on him, he's gonna swing at something in the dirt.
His non-pressure ABs seem to be decent though. Maybe he just needs to gain confidence for those pressure spots.
But dat mustache tho
I catch a lot of the games and I think this is pretty spot-on. Anything well-located with downward movement seems to miss his bat. His approach in pressure situations appears to be "hit an 8-run home run" instead of driving a single to right or make contact to move the runner over.
That said, he has clobbered a few balls and does seem to be finding a little more consistency. I just cringe when he comes up in the 8th or 9th and the last thing the team needs is a strikeout.
Not a perfect proxy but he's hitting .214 w/ RISP. Pretty much his average without (.224)
He's a .216 hitter who strikes out in 42% of his plate appearances. It has nothing to do with pressure.
Tork Dingler—wasn't he one of the characters in "Boogie Nights"?
You must mean Dork Tingler.
you are a bright, shining star
although...let's face it "Dillon Dingler" is pretty much a 'stage' name already
Just as important...getting to third base with Roller Girl.
Tork, Greene, Dingler and the #3 pick this year may form a nice 1-2-3-4 or 2-3-4-5 heart of a championship lineup in the coming years. Dingler can run very well for a catcher.
I'm hoping for one of the top 2 shortstops with the #3 pick. There's a real possibility, however, that the Pirates and Rangers will scoop both of them up by the time the Tigers are on the clock.
My guess is Lawlar will be gone. Mayer is just as good (from a prospect and tool standpoint). If both are gone Leiter will be nice consolation.
You wouldn't take the catcher from Louisville?
That guy f-ing rakes!
Agreed, Davis is in the conversation for the top pick. But I'm hoping this guy has the catcher position covered for the next decade or so.
Mayer, Lawlar, Leiter for me.
I agree, Henry Davis (the Louisville catcher) is one helluva hitter. But everything I'm reading indicates that the Tigers are very happy with the progress Dingler has been making, even well before his promotion today to AA ball.
According to the rankings I just read on MLB.com, Davis is ranked #4 behind the two shortstops and Leiter. And he also projects as a possible third baseman or corner outfielder. He might be worth a good long look if the scouts think enough of him or Dingler to move one of them to a different position, as long as neither becomes a defensive liability.
The nice thing about Dingler is he a great athlete that could easily play elsewhere Soni would personally take Mayer, Lawler, Davis but I wouldn't be upset with pitching either.
I don't want Leiter, Rocker or Jobe. The need for bats is too great. If Mayer and Lawler are both gone, I want Brady House or Kahlil Watson. Mayer is the clear best prospect of the group, but the other 3 are pretty close. The only question is if House outgrows SS.
I still want more pitching. I’d rather buy the bats later.
i hope those two plus greene get a sept call up. get their feet wet. then hopefully up for good second half of 2022.
Wouldn’t that fuck up their service year clock? Ownership has made it clear that they won’t spend a penny they don’t have to
Yes, there's no chance any of these guys (Greene, Tork, or Dingler) get called up to the MLB this year. At the very earliest, we may see them about a month after opening day next year, which helps the club manage their service time clocks.
Gotta keep in mind that the covid season last year messed everything up from a timing standpoint. This year is technically year 3 for Greene, but it's just the second year he's seen professional pitching. Tork and Dingler are a year behind him.
Unless they hit about .450 the rest of the year, I want them in AA for now. Let’s revisit them next March.
It's happening! So many young players this year. We gotta hit on some of them right?
That's the idea. Punch as many lottery tickets as you can.
They are on track as hoped. They will be contributors next season.
Having watched years of AA ball in Erie, I would say many (quite a few, if not majority) of prospects that are going to have a career in the bigs, go straight from Erie to Detroit.
Sure some spend a year in Toledo, but there have been a lot who have moved straight from AA to the MLB.
Yeah, I don't know if this is more of a recent trend, or if that's the way it's always been. I haven't paid a whole lot of attention to the progression of players through minor leagues until more recently. But what you say is definitely the trend nowadays. If they can find success at the AA level, they'll get a callup to the MLB, skipping AAA. I remember reading something last year (I forget where) about the jump from A to AA being a much bigger jump than AA to AAA; so if guys are able to figure it out at the AA level, the progression makes more sense to go from there to MLB.
Honestly, AAA seems to be more for rehab and the players who are good enough to play minor league ball, but not likely good enough to play MLB ball, except in a pinch when the club has to cover a few games while someone is on IR.
Lance Parish, as great a player as he was, really wasn't a great manager. The development in Erie suffered under his time. Cron, on the other hand, was a terrible game manager/base coach, but did a good job sending players up.
If both get some solid ABs in Toledo this year, that's a major win for the rebuild. That puts them in contention to come into Spring Training next year with a legitimate shot to compete for a spot in Detroit.
On another note, really pulling for Manning. There are so many opportunities for spot starts this year for injury and coming Mize/Skubal innings limit reasons - he has a huge oppty to get big league reps. Need to build off the momentum of his last start.
Exactly. Mize, Skubal, and Manning are just as important to the rebuild as are Greene, Torkelson, and Dingler.
Mize and Skubal are on an encouraging trajectory in the MLB. The key for them is to continue to grow and evolve (and stay healthy!). Mize legitimately reminds me of a young Verlander, with his stuff and his mentality.
If Manning can put things together, his potential is sky-high as well. And as you said, he WILL have an opportunity to show out in Detroit this year if he can prove he's ready to handle the moment. He's been pretty terrible in AAA overall this year though, despite a solid start his last time out. Build on that, string together multiple quality starts, and he'll get his chance.
Greene (20 years old), Torkelson (21), and Dingler (22), are all younger than the pitching prospects. Keep in mind that Greene was drafted out of high school a year before the other guys. So while he is younger, he's had a little more time in the system. I would say they are all progressing well, and Greene is on a superstar track. Consider that generational guys like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Fernando Tatis Jr. all made their MLB debuts at either age 19 or 20, after a couple years working their way through A/AA ball.
I would also add Joey Wentz into that. He was on the fast track prior to Tommy John surgery last year.
Joey Wentz is an unexpected bonus in my mind. Even with modern advancements, coming back from TJ surgery is a challenge and certainly alters his projection. I'm rooting for the guy, but I have little expectation for him.
They won't promote any of these guys this year because they want to extend the time they have them under team control. I would expect them to start ending up in Detroit around 2023.
Even though the front office could conceivably do exactly that, I don't really see how they can possibly even consider leaving Greene behind for another full year next season without inciting the torch-and pitchfork segment of the Tigers fan base. The kid is a budding star, potentially even superstar.
Not proclaiming myself to be an expert scout after seeing him play in three late season 2019 games with the Whitecaps, but he sure passes my eye test.
I'm just as excited about all the young offensive talent that is coming through, but what about Robson? He "only' batted .424 at Erie from 66 AB and now has started at Toledo with a .409 BA through the first 5 games, an OBP of .500+.....
I'm not a baseball scout, but if I have someone that is hitting over .400 over 25 games, he has to be pretty good....right????
Why doesn't he get any attention?
Looking at the Tigers' young players (including prospects and those who are officially big leaguers), I only see a few with even odds of being legitimate plus players at the major league level. For position players its Torkelson and Greene. For pitchers it's Mize and maybe Skubal.
Sure, there are several other nice prospects or young players, but they are all 1:4 odds at best. Beyond that, there are a number of "AAAA" players and guys with replacement level potential
Even being optimistic, this organization has about half of a team in the pipeline. I can squint and imagine a decent starting outfield. Beyond Torkelson, I don't think there is a legit better than replacement level IF anywhere and at C there is some hope, but still long odds. Fir pitching, I can see half a rotation and maybe a decent bullpen? I'm not sure even Mize is a true ace.
My point is that this team will not contend for even a wild card birth without an infusion of free agent talent. The pipeline, even with a hot prospect in the next draft, is nowhere near enough to make this team even a marginal contender.
This year's SS FA class is loaded with talent. I would like to see the Tigers address SS through FA. Sign someone you can build around and who can lead by example. With Miggy fading, this team needs at least one star to sell jerseys.
My point is that this team will not contend for even a wild card birth without an infusion of free agent talent.
That's kind of the point, though. Unless you're the Rays or A's, any contending team is going to be bolstering their roster through free agency. The idea is to develop from within so that you're limiting the spend you make in free agency.
In terms of the rotation, there's a pretty decent framework there already:
- Mize
- Boyd (assuming he doesn't get traded...which, at this point, I don't think will happen).
- Skubal
- Turnbull
- Manning? Wentz? Alex Faedo (in a few years)? Free agent?
The bottom line with the rotation is that you don't have to squint too hard to see a contending group there. And someone like a Urena can always be found to eat innings at the bottom.
The offense is a different story, as there is not much there currently. Miggy's contract can't end soon enough. This is the time we pay the price for giving a 10-year contract to a 32-year old player. We knew we would take it on the chin on the back end, and here we are. Schoop, Grossman, and Candelario are the only guys in the lineup today who are even replacement-level players. Of those 3, Candelario is the only one I see who could be part of the long-term plan for Detroit.
Aside from that, a future version of the Tigers' lineup would look something like:
C - Dingler/Rogers
1B - Tork? FA/trade acquisition?
2B - Paredes? FA/trade acquisition?
SS - Willi Castro? FA/trade acquisition?
3B - Paredes? Tork? FA/trade acquisition?
OF - Greene/Hill/Cameron/Robson/Baddoo
There's more questions than answers there, but if Tork, Greene, and Dingler pan out, you can live with replacement-level players to fill in the gaps.
You need a preponderance of your very top prospects to pan out and that's harder than it would seem. Especially pitching. Pitchers are so fickle that you have to draft 10 to get one decent major leaguer.
You also need some guys to bloom late. These are the guys who are able to finally unlock the mental aspect of the game, and when they do they can sometimes become really good very quickly.
I'm kind of hoping this is what's happening with Jake Rogers. He's not a good hitter--yet. But he has been improving quickly this season as he's gotten lots of playing time. Am I thinking wishfully that I want him to be Lance Parrish? Maybe, but you have to believe a talented young guy can get better with experience, provided he has what it takes between the ears.
I understand nobody completely builds from within. My point is that lot of folks seem to think this club is 1-2 years and 1-2 FA s from contending. They are not. They are literally HALF of a (starting) roster/lineup away from contending anytime soon.
Looking through all of the names you have up there for position players, I stand by my assessment; the Tigers will need a lot of luck to get 4 actual everyday players for a contender caliber team, let alone actual stars. I see maybe two potential all stars and two solid everyday players at best. The rest are likely sub-replacement level.
On pitching, you're basically saying this organization is one backend innings eater away from having a contending starting rotation in the near future. I think that's overly optimistic. Even looking at those names with rose colored glasses, I think it is light at the top. Contending teams have two aces and there are not two potential aces in this organization.
My bottom line point is they need to start signing high end FAs now. They don't need to break the bank, but they need at least one marquee signing this offseason and a couple of Schoop/Grossman signings. If they keep waiting until they are only a couple of players away, this will be a never-ending rebuild and they will never sign anyone. Asking their prospects, especially the pitching, to come into a losing organization with sub-par defense and no offense and expecting them to carry the load is a losing formula on the field, in the clubhouse and from a revenue standpoint. Add some talent this offseason and then again next year if finances permit.
On the field, you're simply not even getting to .500 next year without signing some actual MLB players. In the clubhouse, if I'm Spencer Torkelson, I am already thinking about signing elsewhere as a FA if I want to win anything. Does he look around and see himself as the cornerstone of a contender or as a one man show on a losing team? Right now, it has to be the latter. From a revenue standpoint, who does the casual fan get excited about? Miggy passing milestones is about it and even that is depressing. Other than Miggy, if you were a young fan, who's jersey would you buy?
This team has some interesting pieces, but it needs to make a big move soon or just give up. This year's SS crop is pretty large. It's become a bit of a trope for Tigers' fans of a certain age, but this team needs a Pudge Rodriguez signing. Sign a legit all star who is a good clubhouse guy and pay him whatever it takes, even if you have to overpay or add a couple of years.
You bring up some good points. I'll clarify that I'm of the belief that the Tigers are 2-3 years away from contending, based on the current state of their prospect development.
I think the optimistic view is that:
- Mize/Skubal/Turnbull stay healthy and continue to improve year over year.
- Tork/Greene/Dingler make their debuts next year, and show signs of progress by the end of the season.
- If both of the above happen, then by 2023 you have a strong 1-3 in the rotation, to then fill out via trade/FA/or other internal options (depending on the progress of Manning, Wentz, or a potential return from Faedo). You also have solid contributors at cornerstone positions to build a lineup around.
- This provides a justification to spend in free agency, and addresses a bit of the mindset that you hit on (joining an org with something going on, versus joining to be "the guy").
I'll add that Miggy is the biggest thing holding this team back, in multiple ways. He's a bad hitter now, has no ability on defense, and his contract is the biggest deterrent from making a splash in free agency. Unfortunately, it's for this reason I could see the Tigers not making a big FA acquisition until Miggy's contract clears the books.
Unfortunately, you may very well be correct on ownership waiting for Miggy's contract to clear, but I still think it's the wrong approach.
Even with Miggy, the Tiger's payroll is <$81M or 25th (of 30) in the MLB. I am not talking about jumping up to a $200M payroll, but getting close to the median would be a start. The median league payroll is ~$125M. They could sign a $20M FA this offseason, pay all of their arbitration eligible players, sign a couple Grossman/Urena types and still be in the bottom half of the league in payroll with Miggy still on the books. That spending along with continued development of the young players could give this team a fighting chance at .500 next season and might actually be fun to watch.
It's fun watching a team grow, but as a fan, you need to see solid progress to care. I also believe in the old cliche that players need to learn how to win. This is shaping up to be the 5th year in a row <.400. No one in this organization is learning how to win and there is no progress.
It's fun watching a team grow, but as a fan, you need to see solid progress to care. I also believe in the old cliche that players need to learn how to win. This is shaping up to be the 5th year in a row <.400. No one in this organization is learning how to win and there is no progress.
I'm with you, but I actually have an opposite view as of this year. I think the plan has been "wait until our slew of top prospects reach the Majors, then start to build a contending team". I've become so skeptical of Tigers top prospects, since so many of them have flamed out in the past...but Mize and Skubal have injected me with hope. Their starts are must-see TV for me and it's been really fun to see them mature and develop almost in real time. It's the first time Verlander that I've felt like someone actually is showing signs of being a solid contributor.
I also think Hinch and Fetter were excellent hires. I have no expectation of the team winning much this year, but I'm actually excited to see the young guys develop. The losing seems more palatable now that we are seeing tangible signs of progress in these guys.
I agree with you on the Miggy contract situation...Need to be patient one more year. Miggy currently represents 1/3 of the entire payroll and guaranteed through the 2023 season. My guess he will be cut after next season (at the latest) to create a roster spot.
We have multiple high picks this year with leaving the kids in AA. Hopefully high picks in 2022, then start selectively writing F/A checks after the season.
The future is bright, but it will take about another 18 months.
Tork and Dingler sounds like a boutique canned fish company. Try their smoked trout.