OT: Pistons/NBA Draft Discussion
While Michigan football is my favorite team, basketball has always been my favorite sport.
While I was growing up, my dad wasn't much for attending live sports...but he did take me to a few Pistons games. And I have been at games at Cobo, the Silverdome, and the Palace. Including a few of the games at the Silverdome where they had about 60,000 fans...many sitting behind the temporary stands.
And, yes, 1989 was a great time to be a Michigan basketball and Pistons fan!
Now that the Pistons have successfully tanked themselves to having no worse than the fifth pick in the upcoming draft, they should be able to add another piece to what I think is a pretty strong Cade/Ivey/Duren core.
Anyone else concerned about Wemby being another one of those very tall players who ends up being injury prone? Or, is he the no-questions-asked 1st pick?
If they don't get the 1st pick, do you take the best-available player or draft for need? Miller from Alabama could slot in nicely next to the two guards.
Or, if you don't get Wemby, do you trade away the 2nd-5th pick for a proven veteran and/or additional picks?
Personally, I'm all in on Wemby. A healthy line-up of Cade-Ivey-Wemby-Duren-whoever feels like a playoff team with quite a bit of upside. Would probably make the team attractive to some top free agents, as well.
Gores made a hell of an investment - think it was in the $300M range and got the Palace thrown in. Pistons now worth $2Bish. That's a hell of a return in a bit over a decade.
But as an owner pretty poor. Pushing Casey to the front office is peak Detroit Lions circa 1995. (well circa 1965-2020)
Gores just got lucky that NBA franchises have dramatically appreciated in value. It has nothing to do with him. In fact, the Pistons were once one of the most valuable franchises in the league and now are one of the least.
Casey was brought in to tank all these seasons.
Pushing Casey to the front office
I was wondering about that.
I don't follow the Pistons much anymore -- mostly Tigers and Wings, but after reading an article about the .300 winning percentage coach moving upwards, I was wondering how exactly does that happen?
The corporate equivalent is banging the CEO's wife, him finding out, and him making you a VP. That does not compute.
I think this was even rumored last season. There was obviously an agreement in place at some point. Casey gets to save face for the tank job and keep his value up for a future coaching gig.
I like their young guys a lot. Might as well get Wemby— a core of good playmakers and shooters is great, but you simply just need a superstar or two on your team to do anything in the modern NBA.
Which team options to do the Pistons pick-up?
- Cunningham $11.1M
- Burks $10.5M
- Wiseman $12.1M
- Hayes $7.4M
- Stewart $5.3M
- Livers $1.8M
Cunningham and Livers are no brainers.
Burks is a no brainer in the other direction, IMO.
The other 3...interested to see how people feel about Wiseman and Hayes at those numbers.
The only guys you don't bring back from that list are Wiseman and Hayes.
Pistons should be in good shape if they pick 1-3. After that it's more of a crapshoot.
They definitely need a couple seasoned pros who are good defenders though. Any position will do.
I can see a Wiseman restructure and shedding MBIII and eating the dead money, but they should cut bail with Hayes.
Are you seriously asking if you pick up cades option?
Wemby is unlike anyone we’ve ever seen. It’s him or trade. No way we luck into the top pick for the second time in 3 years though right? I’ve learned to temper my expectations so I can’t be let down. I still have a hard time watching Michigan kickers kick field goals.
Cleveland sees you, and raises you 3 #1s in 4 years.
They were building that Cleveland team for The Kings return
VW has top 5 player in the league upside. Scoot has perennial all star upside. Miller has multi appearance all star upside. Beyond that, next closest guys are probably just good starter upside.
Still taking Scoot at 2. He is good enough and has enough separation between himself and Miller and others that you take him and worry about fit later.
Oh man, I know it’s heresy, but I don’t see many guys on this Pistons roster who are starters on a championship contender. Sorry!
Nice young players, but nothing I’ve seen from Cade, Ivey, Duren, or anyone else hints at top-25 player in the league.
If a potential draftee is that guy, I think you take him and figure out the rest later.
Cade, Jaden, and Duren are absolutely starters on a championship-contending team.
Based on nothing other than you saying they are?
If we get #2 we take Scoot
PG- Scoot
SG-Ivey
SF-Cade
PF-?
C-Duren
I’m a big proponent of drafting for talent/best player available. That said, there is almost no way you can play Scoot/Ivey/Cade all together at once - there isn’t enough shooting talent there.
- Ivey shot at 34% from 3 this year
- Cunningham has shot 31% from 3 since entering the league (28% this season in 12 games)
- Scoot shot 27% in the G-League
Of them, only Ivey is near league-average on 3s - and below average for a guard.
Unless they all improve from deep considerably, one of them would need to come off the bench most likely.
+1 You are both are probably correct, have to take the BPA and that line-up will probably not work in long stretches. Still have to take Scoot @ #2 OR orchestrate a trade down because teams will line-up for that. The Pistons still have a shit ton of cap space. Weaver can afford (and I expect him to) to address the forward spot this year, even a max deal if that's what it takes.
Tanking time is over.
I would be surprised if Cade stays shooting in the low 30s from deep. He’s been a good shooter his whole life. Harder when you don’t have help.
All three are going to get great looks off of each other. Defenders are not going to help off Ivey because if you give him a step and let him drive off a closeout, you’re done and he’s dunking over you.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
I think the biggest problem playing all three isn’t their shooting, it is what their strengths are. All of them work best with the ball in their hands as a playmaker. You need a Rip Hamilton to go along with your Chauncey Billups. We desperately need guys who work well off-ball. Ivey and Cunningham (and I’m assuming Scoot, although I haven’t seen as much of him) are super talented, but all have similar games.
PF - TWill
Not concerned about Wemby. But we only have a 15% chance to get him. No one else excites me in the draft which probably says something about me rather than the players
BUT
Cade + Ivey + Duren is a very, very real thing. I don't care about the record this year. This three will be a core for a successful Pistons rise I'm certain. So good / so young
Hi there. I'm an alien
Cobo? I think I only made it to one game there in the mid 70s. My parent took me to a game where the Celtics with Jo Jo White smoked us. Silverdome, more than a few times also Palace too.
As for the draft, my gut feel is that we will be unlucky and get a pick in the 3-5 range. I'd take Miller, just as much as I'd take Jalen Carter by the Lions if his off the field issues cause him to fall in the draft. Warren Sapp and Randy Moss in football were considered lower targets (in their case, pot issues) but turned out to embarrass all the GMs who passed on them.
If Wemby is there and we do win the 1st pick, definitely go for it. Don't worry about him being a Sam Bowie or Greg Oden. Or even a Darko. I've seen people who had a bad experience on the dating scene talk themselves out of a great guy/gal because they worried it would end up the same.
Totally genuine question: Why is it so hard to build a consistent winner in the NBA these days? I was a fan in the Pistons heydays (and even between in the late 90s) but I don't understand enough about the modern game to know why you can't build a team after a couple of good drafts.
it's hard to draft nba players because of tee reasons. It's hard to find a star and it is hard to find a role player. The most coveted things in the NBA are a star and a 3 and D.
You get 20 plus ppg scorers in college who can't sniff the NBA because they can't fit a role. The NBA is all about match ups and fitting a role on the team. The star makes everything go.
College coaching in general is just horrific. You waste the entire shot clock doing nothing on the perimeter only to scramble to get some sort of shot off before the shot clock expires. The NBA gives the balll to their best scorer and runs an action to get them isolated in a pick and roll to get a mismatch. Pretty simple, put the ball in the hands of your best players as much as possible.
I'll take a swing at cracking this nut.
First, let's use the negative to prove the positive. Why is it so hard to build a consistent winner in the modern NBA? Who is the exception to that? The Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors have one bonafide superstar in Steph. They have two perennial All Stars who also double as elite role players in Klay and Draymond. And all three have been with the team for the enitrety of their run. Beyond that, they've been pretty savvy about filling in players around them. You've got an additional bonafide superstar in Durant for part of the run. But guys from Looney to Ezeli to Livingston to Iguodala to even Poole have been varying degrees of All Star to high-end role player. Lastly, you've got an owner who has been willing to spend and overspend into the luxury tax for almost a decade now.
That's not the whole formula for GSW's success, but it's a nice little clif's notes version.
Now, the positive to the negative... why is it so hard to build a consistent winner? Two words, player movement.
The championship core of GS's run (Steph, Klay and Draymond) have been together the entire time. If you're asking about long dynastic runs, chances are you were an 80/90s NBA fan? (Although maybe you're a big Bill Russell 60's NBA fan)
But let's look at the 80s and 90s and those dynasty teams and their best players:
Celtics, Lakers, Pistons, Bulls, Spurs, 2nd Lakers
Bird - 1 Team
Magic - 1 Team
Isiah - 1 Team
Dumars - 1 Team
Jordan - 2 Teams
Robinson - 1 Team
Duncan - 1 Team
Kobe - 1 Team
Shaq - 6 Teams
Now, let's look at the most iconic guys of the past 15 years:
Lebron - 3 Teams
Durant - 4 Teams
Russ - 5 Teams
Dirk - 1 Team
Kawhi - 3 Teams
Giannis - 1 Team
Harden - 4 Teams
Kryie - 4 Teams
I could go on. Some of the younger guys (even Giannis) just haven't had enough time to change teams yet. But the calculus is simply different in 2023 than it was in 1993 or 1983. Players move around for a million different reasons and it's hard to build a long term consistent winner if your best players are only spending 4 seasons in one place.
There are many reasons and a couple have been pointed out already. Here are my Cliff Notes version...
To win today, you need to :
A) Have one of the top 3 players in the league (Think Greek Freak), plus a really good supporting roster aka 1 additional All Star and 2-3 upper level players
B) Multiple All Stars (dating here but think Miami Heat when LaBron and Wade decided to play together for a few years)
Either option is tough because of player movement now. If you are fortunate enough to get a generational player, you essentially have 3 years to build a championship roster otherwise said player starts looking around to find his best fit. As for multiple high level All Stars, that requires tanking multiple years, getting very lucky in the lottery, and hitting on every draft pick. Philly tried this route but not all their picks worked out thus they are good but not championship level. Detroit is trying this route and this years lottery will be key. IF they are lucky and get the top pick, then they pick VW and hope he pans out. If he does, then the next 10 years of Detroit Basketball is going to be a ton of fun. Even if they do get to pick VW and he turns out to only be a "really good" players, then it will be tough to hang onto all 4 players (Cade, Ivey, Duren, and VW) 1 or more will walk to greener pastures soon...
Final point (and yes I am an old timer here so I am standing on my soap box here), the early draft entry, while perfectly legal, has pretty much destroyed college basketball. By continually sapping the best HS talent each year, the level of play in college basketball has gone down hill. Especially now that kids have more options than 20 years ago...
April 10th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
April 10th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
Does anyone know how protected picks work? Say you traded for the Spurs' top-3-protected 2023 1st round pick. If the Spurs end up with the #2 pick, they keep it, but do you get their 1st round pick the next year? Or do you just end up with nothing?
April 10th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
Teams can set their own rules about this. That pick might remain top-3 protected next year too, or maybe it only is protected for this year. At some point you will get the pick from them.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
You are pretty close. However, just because a pick isnt conveyed one year does it mean it gets automatically conveyed the next.
Often, a pick will be protected for multiple drafts, but will eventually have to become unprotected or convert into a bunch of other picks.
For example, say this summer that the Warriors still feel they have the chance to win 1 more championship before Curry/Klay/Green really start to show their age.
To do this, they trade for Toronto's Pascal Siakam to give them a threat from the PF position (though he would probably play both PF/C in their system). This trade is just an example and prob not all that realistic.
The trade ends up being something like:
- Warriors Trade
- Draymond Green
- Jonathan Kuminga
- Kevon Looney
- 2025 First Round Pick (Protected)
- Raptors Trade
- Pascal Siakam
That 2025 First Round Pick has some stipulations that the Warriors added. Unlike just completely giving away the pick in the trade unconditionally (called an unprotected pick), the Warriors "protect" it by adding in a bunch of stipulations to ensure the pick isn't that great just in case their team sucks next year. Lets say the pick is protected in the following way:
- 2025 - Lottery Protected
- If the Warriors do not make the playoffs for whatever reason after the 2024-25 season, they keep their pick. If they make the playoffs, the Raptors get the pick
- 2026 - Top 5 Protected
- If the Warriors failed to make the playoffs and ended up keeping their pick because of that in the 2025 draft, the next season, the pick is only top-5 protected. If the Warriors truly suck at this point and get a top 5 pick, they keep it this year as well.
- 2027 - Top 1 Protected
- The Warriors suck once more, but get the #1 pick in the lottery, so they keep the pick. If they get the #2 pick or worse, they have to send the pick to Toronto.
- The Top 1 Protection is why you saw the Grizzlies trade their #2 pick to Detroit in 2003. That pick was Top 1 protected - hence why Grizzlies GM Jerry West looked like he was going to die during the draft lottery that night.
- 2028 - Unprotected
- No matter what, at this point, if the Warriors have not had to send a pick to Toronto, they will this draft.
Often, instead of waiting years and years for the pick to materialize potentially, teams will have swaps, or picks which turn into multiple 2nd rounders etc, such as:
- Swaps:
- Golden State has a lottery protected pick swap where if their pick is in the lottery, they keep it, but if the pick is outside of the lottery, they have to send it to Toronto.
- 2nd Round Exchange:
- Instead of waiting for 4-5 years for their Golden State pick to materialize, sometimes the pick will turn into multiple 2nd round picks after x amount of time.
- This would usually only be done with playoff teams where they would not be trading potential lottery/#1 picks etc. and would instead be trading picks in the 20s or so.
Obviously, both teams have to agree in a trade, so just keep that in mind when seeing how crazy these picks can be pushed into the future.
The Top 1 Protection is why you saw the Grizzlies trade their #2 pick to Detroit in 2003.
They actually made the trade several years beforehand, and the Pistons had to keep waiting for it until 2003, when the protection finally went down to just #1 overall.