OT: NHL Free Agency Roundup
If you weren't already a Washington Capitals fan, you might be inclined to jump aboard after yesterday's transaction. The defending Patrick Division champions signed their second former Wolverine in as many weeks, adding 1997 Hobey Baker winner Brendan Morrison to play center alongside fellow Michigan alumnus Mike Knuble.
More pertinent to Red Wings fans is the interesting scrum concerning Jiri Hudler's 2-year deal with Dynamo Moscow. I'm sure Wings fans want Hudler to stay, but not at the expense of his passion for hockey. I don't know anything about him; will he mope and pout if forced to return to Detroit? Statistically, he had a fine year last year--23 goals, 57 points, 82 games played--and perhaps more importantly, he's only 25 years old. How important is Hudler to the Red Wings, and does Hossa's departure (or, more accurately, Mikael Samuelsson's) heighten their need for him?
Finally, the NHL's Winter Classic, for my money one of the best sporting events of the year, has a home for the 2010 season: Boston's Fenway Park. The Bruins will play there against either the Philadelphia Old Mike Knubles or the Washington Refurbished Mike Knubles; either way, it will be super cool as usual. However, I would implore the NHL to consider an all-Canada Winter Classic in the near future. Although not nearly as many Americans watched 2003's Heritage Classic as they did the 2008 and 2009 Winter Classics, that experience was so mesmerizing it would be a shame not to replicate it. Bruins fans are pretty fickle, and although that would mean nothing to an instant sellout like this, I think it would be absolutely amazing to genuine hockey fans around the world to see a game between the Canadiens and the Maple Leafs at Molson Stadium.
Thanks for the post. I love and play hockey, if you can't tell by my avatar.
Regarding Morrison, I think he is all but done with hockey. His best days are far behind him and you can tell he has lost a step on the younger and speedier generation of hockey players. Morrison was one of my favorite hockey players growing up, but I hate to say that he probably will not contribute much on the ice this upcoming season for Washington.
Regarding Detroit and Hudler, I think Jiri is worth right around $ 1.25 million a year. He is a solid player, but does not help out in the defensive zone as much as I would like. He is undersized, does not play very physical, and was a no show in the Stanley Cup finals. If Detroit can keep him for a good price then I say do it, 57 points is a great year in the NHL and he helps out on the PP more than anything. If Detroit can't resign him for a good price then I think they should continue what they have been doing in free agency and sign young players with something to prove.
I'm a big Caps fan, and although I initially agreed that Morrison doesn't have anything left in the tank, I still think it's a smart move for the Caps. They're going to be losing some veterans players, having lost Kozlov and Fedorov to Russia, and there's a good chance Theodore and Nylander will be gone too.
A one-year, $1.5 million deal with Morrison is almost nothing, and it's a price I'd gladly pay for some leadership. If he can produce at his previous level, all the better.
And I'm straight-up excited about getting Knuble. I expect him to play on our top line with Ovechkin and Backstrom. He'll definitely help that line by providing some forechecking and a physical presence near the net.
You're right on the leadership and that is the one aspect of Morrison that I left out. He will bring a lot of veteran leadership to a team that is very young and relatively inexperienced.
Regarding Knuble, I am with you 100%. He is still a very good player and a relative unknown among most hockey fans. He does his job quietly, but effectively. Knuble is the one guy that I hoped Detroit would have picked up.
No offense, but Hudler's worth way more than 1.25 million. 20-goal scorers don't just grow on trees, and I suspect if you look at past arbitration cases, similar players have garnered much more.
That being said, I'd love it if Hudler came back for that amount. It would be just about ideal from a salary cap perspective.
that is the problem with arbitration. Hudler is worth no more than about $2 million a year, he is a one dimensional player, who is under sized and doesn't skate all that well. He shows no effort to becoming a well rounded player. His numbers from last year have as much to do with who he is playing with on powerplays as it does about his actual talents. The arbitrator will probably award him more than what Filppula is making and I am sorry but he is no where near the player that Filppula is. The Wings would love to have him back but not at $3-4 million a year.
First, a couple of obvious points. The southeast is hardly the Patrick Division, and Boston and Philadelphia have never been division rivals. I know you were going for some humor there, but I hate inaccuracies like these.
As for the Capitals, they haven't done anything to address their major weakness from last season. The Knuble signing is nice as it gives them some added grit up front, but that was hardly what almost did them in against the Rangers and eventually did them in against Pittsburgh. They needed to add physicality on their back end and they simply didn't do it. They're going to be significantly impeded in fixing that problem until Nylander is off of their books. There are a couple of horrendous contracts that have been signed league-wide over the last three years that teams are paying a heavy price for and the Nylander contract is one of them. I would also anticipate that they will struggle in goal this year. Varlamov, for as great of a mini-run he had in the playoffs, has never played more than 33 games in any season as a professional, and Theodore is, well Theodore. You guys will probably win your division, unless Carolina can put an entire season together for once, but I'd bet you'll put up under 100 points in doing it.
Good point, although I think the Caps ownership is confident the existing glut of young defensemen will mature to provide that physicality on the backend.
Milan Jurcina and Jeff Schultz both improved by leaps and bounds last season. They might very well take another big leap forward. And then there's our #1 pick from last year, John Carlson, who's only 19 1/2 now but at 6'2"/205 is already poised to make the depth chart as a big hitter.
Besides them, I expect the Caps to make a deal. They have Karl Alzner and John Erskine, both solid young defenders, as well as Shaone Morrison, and these guys can't all fit into the top 6. I think they'll deal a young defender, a draft pick and one of their two prospect goalies besides Varlamov and try to pick up an established big man on the blueline.
Winners
1.) Anaheim - +2 first round picks, Sbisa, and Lupul for Pronger was a great forward-thinking move by the ducks GM. Their defense was excellent last year, and while they lose Pronger, it should still be strong. Adding Lupul and Koivu should benefit an already talented offense. And they still have over 6 million in cap space to navigate the market with. I expect they'll pick up another decent defenseman, and possibly a role player. They're my favorite to win the West next year.
2.) Pittsburgh - With Guerin and Fedotenko taking discounts, their top 3 lines from their cup winning team stay in tact. They also got a steal on defense with Jay McKee at 800k for one year. McKee fits their style perfectly, as he loves to block shots, and if he stays healthy people will be saying "Scuderi who?". They got him for so cheap because he had buyout money from St. Louis. He wasn't worth the 4 million St. Louis was scheduled to pay him, but he's sure as hell worth more than 800k. 2nd best signing of free agency (at least, bang for the buck so to speak) so far behind Greg Zanon.
Losers:
1.) New York Rangers - While it was impressive that they moved Scott Gomez's salary, they still haven't realized that they're in a salary cap world. They overpaid for all of their free agents in my opinion, and in doing so leave themselves with no room for decent depth signings. They'll have one dangerous line with Gaborik, Drury, and Kotalik and nothing really beyond that.
2.) Ottawa - The Heatley thing has really crippled this team. Their GM couldn't make any decent moves without freeing up his salary, and yet they still haven't been able to resolve this thing. My guess is he still gets moved before the season starts, but there aren't any comparable players left to replace him with. If they can get something done quickly, Tanguay is still on the market and would be their best option. They also overpaid for Kovalev, and this wasn't something they could afford to do given their cap issues already.
Others of Interest:
1.) Detroit Red Wings - Well, it's a rebuilding year. Detroit will NOT be as good as last year with the loss of many free agents. Still, it should give some of their younger prospects a legitimate shot at making the team. They still need to sign a good backup goalie, and could use a physical defenseman as well. Detroit's defense is highly overrated, and gets away with poor play because their forwards play such great 2-way hockey. See the Stanley Cup finals and how Pittsburgh dominated down low and along the boards. Holland REALLY needs a physical specimen back there and they're still a few decent guys left on the market that would fit into Detroit's cap situation.
2.) Washington - Because some of you have proclaimed yourself Cap fans, I thought I should comment. While signing Knuble and Morrison was good, it only really made up for their losses of Kozlov and Federov. It brought a little more physicality to a team desperately in need of it, but Washington who has a bit of cap space did little to shore up their defense which is their biggest problem. They need a solid defensive-defenseman, preferably one who likes to hit. Until they can get more physical and responsible on defense, they won't be serious cup contenders.
3.) Chicago - I figure I'd comment on their situation. It makes me scream WTF?!? They certainly have a lot of firepower this year, but lets look down the road a little. In 2010-2011, they currently have 13 players signed for $43 million. Assuming the cap stays the same as this year (most expect it to go down actually, but I'll be generous), they would have about 13.5 million to sign about five forwards and three defensemen. Of their current players, both Toews and Kane will be restricted free agents and likely going to be commanding about 4-5 million each. Other free agents they'll want to keep include Duncan Keith, Ben Eager, and Andrew Ladd. They'll of course have no money to do so. As I said, they'll be insanely talented this year, but next off season will be a circus in Chicago.
Since you mention the Hawks having $43M tied up in 13 players for 2010-2011, you should take a look at the Flyers situation for that year: $45.3M tied up in 13 players. But yes, because of the players they will have as RFAs Chicago is going to be in cap hell.
Yeah but Philly's core is locked up. Next year they'll only really have to deal with Carcillo and Coburn. The Flyer's problem is that they're always trying to win now. Some Flyer's fans are delusional and think that the Pronger trade will make them cup contenders. Unfortunately, I don't think Philadelphia has a chance until they can get a decent goalie, and that won't happen as long as they have all that money tied up in their forwards and when they keep giving away their first round picks.
Yeah, I know. For 2010-2011 they are in alright shape, but I wouldn't exactly say that their core is locked up (your list needs Parent added to it). After 2010-2011 they will have to deal with Carter, Gagne, Giroux, only have three defensemen, and no goaltender. Your thoughts are spot in, in my opinion, that they won't do much until they do something about their goaltending. I still don't believe the BS coming out of their organization that they actually intended to sign Pronger to that contract as a 35+; I firmly believe they misinterpreted the CBA and are in CYA mode.
Yeah, I forgot about Parent. I was writing that off the top of my head, but I just went and checked their cap situation. This year and next will be fine, but after that they'll be in trouble. At that point, they either need to move Brier or not resign Gagne.
Oh, and as far as Pronger, I think it's possible they did it knowingly. See, the cap has some loopholes, and this particular one has already been exploited by the Devils. Basically, big market teams like Philadelphia can afford well above the cap, while small market teams often struggle just to affor the minimum they must spend according to the cap.
Cap hits are an average over the entire contract, not of the salary actually being paid that year. So, Philadelphia will pay the 7 million or so Pronger will make for the next few years, and then in the later years of the contract when the salary is around 1-2 million, they'll ship him and a draft pick/prospect off to a team like Phoenix. Phoenix will pay 1-2 million, but their cap hit will be 5+ million. This allows them to meet the cap minimum but actually pay less than this in annual salary. The Devils did this a while back with Malakhov.
I know how the cap works under the current CBA (very well), but the problem with that model is the price that will have to be paid by the Flyers to do that. When the Devils did that with Malakhov it cost them a first round pick and a roster player. It will cost the Flyers at least that much, if not much more because who ever the trading partner is will know how desperately the Flyers will need to make the move. The Flyers could have done this for that reason, but given how the story broke in the local media and then through the NHL office I don't believe it. The initial news reports were the most telling ones of all about this whole situation where (1) the Philadelphia media, based on sources within the Flyers organization, were all saying that it was an under 35 contract and (2) where Bill Daly confirmed that the contract was a 35+ contract and the Flyers were saying that it was not).
You're probably right, I was just throwing out an option that the Flyers will likely pursue. Also, I'm not sure how much they'll have to give up. A team like Atlanta or Phoenix would likely take Pronger those last two years when he's making around 1 million per season for a first round draft pick.
Plus, Philadelphia's front office has already been shown to be very liberal in giving up draft picks. Hell, to get Pronger they essentially gave up 3 first round picks (Sbisa + 2 firsts), a conditional 3rd round pick, and Lupul. Philadelphia will be decent this year, but they're screwed in the future. In a salary cap world, your draft picks are how you attain cheap but talented depth.
Anyway, you're a Pens fan if I'm not mistaken, so you're probably more familiar with the Flyers organization. I bet we can both agree though, the Flyers suck!
Yeah, your analysis is spot on, assuming that they did it intentionally. At best I can only agree that it's possible because, well, it's the Flyers. Their liberal relinquishing of first round picks is why I think it'll pose a problem for them. They are such a "try to win now and damn the future" type of team that I can see them trading away the picks they would need to make that trade happen; that's part of where I was coming from in it being difficult for them to have the pieces to make it happen. Your point about the salary assumption is right though (actually it's a bit better than you said) as Pronger is only paid about $550,000 during the last two years of the deal. And yes, as a both a Wings and Penguins fan (hard to believe, I know), I can definitely agree that the Flyers suck!