OT: NFL Worst-to-First Predictions, 2015 Version

Submitted by superstringer on
My annual post, for about four or five years running.  Last year's NFL season broke a 13+ year string, where each year at least one team won its division, the season after coming in last place in the division.  (The NFC Southeast was responsible for about half of those worst-to-first turnarounds, by the way.)  But none of the 2014 division winners were 2013 last-place teams.  In fact, five of the eight 2013 last-place division teams again finished in last in their divisions in 2014.  Ouch.  (Sucks to be Browns / Raiders / Redskins / Buccaneers / Rams fan.)
 
So statistically, 2014 was an aberration.  History says we should still expect one of the 2014 last-place teams to win its division this year.  Which one will it be?  Here are the candidates (with their 2014 records):
 
Tennessee Titans (2-14)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)
Oakland Raiders (3-13)
NY Jets (4-12)
Washington Redskins (4-12)
Chicago Bears (5-11)
St. Louis Rams (6-10)
Cleveland Browns (7-9)
 
Two immediately jump to mind -- the Bears (new coach, and the law of averages says Cutler at some point is going to help win games, division is going to beat itself up), and Rams (probably a slight improvement at QB, plus division has taken a hit--Seahawks are dumping some backup players due to salary problems, and the 49ers got HARBAUGH'd).  Now, before you say "no way" to any of them, I'd just point out, you would have said the same about the other 13 worst-to-first teams in the past in prior years.  Something has to give.
 
What say yee?

ericcarbs

August 11th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^

I honestly don't think Bears will be close. Packers still dominate the NFC north and the lions are still gonna be good (just not as good). Similarly Vikings have year two of the coach and QB so they should only get better (along with AP maybe). I honestly see Bears as 3rd or maybe 4th again in the league.



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CaliUMfan

August 11th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^

No way the Bears finish above the Packers who only got better unless there is a major run of injuries (or one major injury to Rogers). 

Rams is possible with the Seahawks likely taking a small step back if the Rams take a big step forward but I would still be surprised. 

Browns is also possible now that they have a functional quarterback (probably). 

ijohnb

August 11th, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^

know who is on any of those teams.  I did not like the NFL before Hernandez/Incognito/Rice/Hardy/Deflate-gate and the last year has done nothing to endear it to me.  College football is my favorite sport on the planet.  The NFL does not even register with me.  Go figure.

I predict the Patriots will be good, Peyton Manning will throw for a lot of yards, and there will be lots of pass interference and defensive holding calls.  Also, the Super Bowl will happen.

amaizenblue402

August 11th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^

The 49ers are in a downward spiral and I don't think this year will be pretty.  They are already in one of the best division's in the NFL, if not THE best.  As a 49ers fan, I am upset at what they have become, but at the same time am happy that Harbaugh is at Michigan.  I'd much rather see Michigan start winning.

WolvinLA2

August 11th, 2015 at 11:20 AM ^

I don't like either of your picks, OP.  When this tends to happen, it does so in a division that doesn't have a clear cut favorite, one that is more wide open, like the NFC South as you mentioned.  

For this year, I'd say the Bucs, Raiders or Redskins have the best chance.

Perkis-Size Me

August 11th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^

I don’t think any of these teams have a real shot at going worst to first. They were all that bad last year for a reason, but if I had to pick, I think it’d come down to between two teams:

Bucs – the NFC South is such a mess that really anything is possible. The Bucs do have some nice pieces in the Jackson/Evans combo, and McCoy/David could be two of the best at their respective positions. Lovie will field good defenses like he always did in Chicago, but they’ve got a rookie QB in Winston that will have a pretty effing big target on his back all year. With a patchwork offensive line full of rookies and career backups that won’t be able to protect him very well. Improvement from 2-14? Yes. Getting past Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton? Not so much.

Titans – no, I do not think the Titans will overtake the Colts. But they’ve only got one real team to go through, unlike the other teams on this list, who have multiple contenders in their division. The Texans have arguably the best player in the league in Watt, but essentially no one else. And no QB. The Jaguars are what they are. The only way I could see the Titans moving up is if Mariota has an RGIII-esque rookie year where teams don’t know how to game plan for him, and they catch the Colts by surprise in at least one of their games against each other.

Thought about the Rams, as they’re probably the best team on this list and should be improved from last year, but they also have to contend with the Cardinals, the Seahawks, and a 49ers team that still has a good amount of talent despite buffoonery running throughout its coaching and management ranks. Good luck with that.   

Braylon_Edward…

August 11th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^

I'll say the Bears or the Bucs, more likely the Bucs. No one in that division is great and they have a superb defense. If the Bucs even have an average o line that gives Winston time to find Evans, Jackson, etc their offense could have some big play potential. Unless Doug Martin comes back to life their run game will probably still be pedestrian but the run game in Carolina isn't much better. Give me Tampa Bay.

ReegsShannon

August 11th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^

Yeah... near zero percent chance that the Bears win the division. They have not gotten much better if at all and the rest of the division could be playoff-caliber.

Cranky Dave

August 11th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^

but would pick the Rams based on a solid D and I do think Fisher is a pretty good coach.  This is all based on having read some stuff somewhere and gut feeling, nothing you know, factual. 

Hotel Putingrad

August 11th, 2015 at 12:10 PM ^

I don't think Manning stays healthy, and the Chargers and Chiefs strike me as 8-8 kind of teams this year. The rest all have major questions at QB (save the Bears, but I honestly think they're still the worst team in the North)

Danwillhor

August 11th, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^

Raiders or Rams have the best shot, IMO. Bucs a close third. I think Seattle falls a bit (can't keep them all) but the Cardinals are the real threat there to the West. 49ers pick in the top 5, IMO. Cutler will Cutler. Packers walk with the NFC North, Vikings being the next in line. I have Carolina winning the South but NO is still a threat and it's looking so bad again that the Bucs wouldn't shock me. I think Oakland is legit in 2 more years but I don't see them overtaking Den or SD. The Rams have a crazy D-line, though! I'd still bet we don't see a worst to first for 2 years in a row.

Ron Utah

August 11th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^

I'd pick these two as the most likely, but I think we'll go another year without a "worst-to-first" team.  If the Rams played in a different division, I think they'd have a real shot.  The Raiders' division will be down this year, but Manning, Rivers, and even Alex Smith are all pretty damn good QBs, and Denver and KC have reloaded on defense.  That division is going to be a mess, IMO.

Monkey House

August 11th, 2015 at 2:56 PM ^

with the Redskins it all comes down to RG3 and his make or break year. well also depends on if they even have enough players to play in the secondary with all the injuries they have suffered this month.