OSU bungled a fake punt that might have changed The Game
A reddit user QueenIsTheWorstBand did an amazing breakdown of OSU's punt down 24-20, showing strong evidence that they had Michigan fooled for a huge gain or possibly TD.
- On 4th and 6, the illegal snap/false start was likely intentional to distract from the fake being set up.
- On 4th and 11, they set up in a rugby punt formation to get Michigan to overload on the right.
- On the snap, they run blocked to the left, including one member of the shield pulling and kicking out (i think) Cornelius Johnson. The middle member of the shield clearly was supposed to get the snap and run through a cavernous hole to the left. Easily gains the first and a ton more if it happens.
- Instead the snap goes back to the punter who has to redirect to catch the snap - seemingly not expecting to actually get the snap to him. Luckily (for him) gets off a punt that becomes a touchback.
Check out the breakdown here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/z6kmqj/ohio_state_lost_the_game_on_their_3rd_quarter/
November 28th, 2022 at 1:03 AM ^
To be clear, Michigan had stepped up in the second half and won handily, so likely would not have changed the result. Would have made The Game much tighter and more stressful.
November 28th, 2022 at 3:36 AM ^
I figured this would be the first reply.
By and large you're right, and Michigan definitely figured out osu's offense. But don't underestimate momentum and overall weird juju. We probably would have won in most scenarios while playing this well, but a couple bounces/bad calls/bad breaks can turn a game (and the crowd) around completely. THIS is exactly why I'm very much hoping osu doesn't get into the playoff.
While we're definitely the better team, especially on a neutral field, I don't want them to get a 2nd crack. It's hard to beat a team 2x in a season if they're Indiana, let alone a team with a pulse.
November 28th, 2022 at 7:02 AM ^
While beating a Top5 opponent twice in one year is extremely difficult, Michigan would presumably be fully weaponized with Corum. OSU would have to play perfect/disciplined on offense to beat Michigan, because that D isn’t stopping our offense. Plus, I’m sure our coaches have a few things scheme wise they would work on that will make the challenge even harder for them.
Ideally, OSU plays in the Rose Bowl and gets a 2nd loss (like we did in 2006). Then, Day leaves after an awkward and uncharacteristic year with multiple losses (where Michigan annihilates them at the Big House). Scales completely flipped.
Survive Purdue and get healthy. Michigan has all its goals in front of them, and has as good of odds as anyone to win the whole darn thing! Go Blue!
November 28th, 2022 at 7:52 AM ^
In a hypothetical rematch the osu offense would have Miyan Williams, Henderson, and JSN supporting their offense. You can’t just play the only one team gets to get healthy card
November 28th, 2022 at 8:17 AM ^
I think Bama may very well be ranked ahead of OSU in the rankings. There is a recency bias and the last image of OSU was them flat quitting in the 4th quarter.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:30 AM ^
I'll play the healthy Blake Corum card and the two handed Donovan Edwards card.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
First reply lol. It was the OP replying to himself. Probably forgot to include it in the post.
November 28th, 2022 at 7:11 AM ^
I didn't watch the game live, taped it, so I knew the outcome. But even so, I kept getting old feelings of nervousness, as it remained close most of the game.
While Michigan played great and ended up dominating, it didn't feel like domination till Edward's runs.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:27 AM ^
Listen to Klatt early in the 3rd quarter. He says that Ohio is playing tight and the fans are anxious. He’s been watching football for years and his comment was spot on.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:03 AM ^
He is undoubtedly the best of the best color-guy
November 28th, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
He said this after the false start for this punt.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:36 AM ^
Ohio State played like we have for the last 20 years. This is the first time since 2001 they've ever taken the field without assuming they'll win. And it showed.
They knew they had to make plays in the 2nd half, and rather than having confidence and just staying loose, they tightened up and got conservative, a hallmark of ours while losing nearly 20 years in a row.
Klatt was on the money with that observation. You could just feel the wind being sucked out of that stadium on a play-by-play basis
November 28th, 2022 at 1:05 AM ^
Without having yet looked at this, I will at least dismiss the notion that the false start was intentional.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:16 AM ^
The evidence is that they set up in standard punt formation on 4th and 6, which they couldn't have run the same fake from.
After the penalty, they switch to the rugby style, which (a) removes one guy from the side they want to run to and (b) induces Michigan to overload to the right as we do against rugby points.
It's fair to think they wouldn't want to eat a 5 years penalty, but using it as misdirection to get Michigan to adjust to the change in formation without thinking about the fake would be clever.
I also just love the idea that they'd set up something so well and just bungled it. I feel like in the years we've not been as good, the coaches have come up with some clever wrinkles but the execution didn't happen. Good to see it on the other foot.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:22 AM ^
I don’t have a great answer to why it was set up with the gunner on one side and then the other but just no way on a fake punt where you run are you intentionally going from 6 to 11 yards. And the false start was when we moved first, unless we always do that and that was all part of their master plan.
I mean, I can’t be sure that wasn’t part of the plan but that’s completely insane.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:30 AM ^
Nope. Watch the longsnapper. He's looking down at the ball and goes to snap it and stops. He's not looking at the Michigan player moving. Michigan's movement had nothing to do with it.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:45 AM ^
Okay. I was looking at the action up the line. I see the snapper now and he was called for the illegal snap.
That is a move that is so bizarre it would seem to call more attention to a fake than distract from it. Also, considering he’s the one that messed up the snap (assuming any of this is true) I am just as happy to believe he was confused about everything and messed that up too.
November 28th, 2022 at 2:19 AM ^
To be clear I don't think this "changes" the game in a meaningful way.
This is feelingsball but two things:
-
I think Harbaugh runs the next drive identically even if he's down. The motivations for play calls don't change at all because the goal is still to bleed clock and score.
-
This probably gets them into the red zone but likely doesn't score on its own. OSU had 2 more drives into the red zone and that resulted in 3 total points, and they struggled in the first half as well. Who says they get a touchdown there even if the fake works.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:53 AM ^
I was skeptical when I clicked on this post, but after reading the Reddit post and rewatching the play several times, I definitely agree that was supposed to be a fake. The upbacks running to the left wouldn't make sense if it wasn't a fake. Plus, if Harbaugh thinks it was supposed to be fake, I'm not going to disagree lol.
That said, it's hard to believe that the snap infraction was on purpose. That would be a legit 4D chess move. Lose 5 yards and make the conversion harder for what? The chance that Michigan is marginally less suspicious of a fake? The deliberate penalty theory would be more believable if they were lined up for the fake on 4th & 6 -- if don't get the look you want, then take a penalty and try again. But who knows. They're clearly mentally rattled -- after all, the snapper forgot to do his job! -- so maybe Day would have talked himself into making the conversion harder than necessary.
November 28th, 2022 at 3:05 AM ^
Like you, skeptical at first, but then watching the play it would have gained 20 yards easy. There was nobody on the left side of the field.
November 28th, 2022 at 9:07 AM ^
Looks like 3 Wolverines on the left side to me.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
True, but there are OSU players lined up to block each one of them. Plus, if you are going to run a rugby punt to your right, you don't ignore 3 Michigan players that have a straight line to the punter. Also, it was a little strange the punter took 2 steps to his right then had to back track to catch the ball prior to punting.
Now, I will not state this was going to be an easy run for a big gain. HAD this been a fake, it would have come down to the one on one play between OSU 35 (lead blocker) and the end man on Michigan
November 28th, 2022 at 6:36 AM ^
Thing is, they ran a rugby punt all day. So the bad snap play is the formation that sticks out.
November 28th, 2022 at 6:59 AM ^
I quote the great Brady Hoke:
"they just didn't execute"
November 28th, 2022 at 8:37 AM ^
I quote the great Brian Kelly:
"I'm in favor of execution—maybe our entire team needs to be executed after tonight, we just didn't execute very well.
It's an old John McKay quote. I was kidding, I was being tongue-in-cheek. ... It wasn't funny? I was making a joke about it. It was taken serious. Are you people crazy?"
November 28th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
Well, if you’re going to include his lame explanation then you should also point out he didn’t do the joke right.
Q: What about your team’s execution?
McKay: I’m in favor of it.
Very different than what BK did which was shoehorn “execution” into his answer and then say he wants to execute his team.
This is like saying “I like to kick chickens!” and then saying “What, I was just telling the Chicken crossed the road joke.” Not a perfect analogy but you get the idea.
But as the joke police on the board here, I have noticed a lot of people struggle with the construction of a joke and get very defensive when that’s pointed out. I guess BK suffers from the same affliction.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:09 AM ^
Who are we thinking was supposed to get the snap? The up-backer who went to kick out CJ? If not him, who? We're talking some snap that goes <45° to one of the other up-backs and that's damn near an impossible snap. The punter doesn't seem surprised, either, other than it being a little to his left more than he'd have liked
Me thinks top much was thought about this play.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:10 AM ^
I fully expected a fake punt yesterday. They did that in 2016 and it backfired for them.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:38 AM ^
Urban losing his mind after the punt team went rogue would have been an all time moment if we pulled that game off
November 28th, 2022 at 1:13 AM ^
Jim from the post-game press conference seemingly confirms at least a fake. Whether or not it went exactly the way the reddit poster says, or if it was that specific instance, not entirely clear, but it seems like it may be (at least per the head coach).
From the 24/7 Transcript -
On the fourth-down calls by Michigan and Ohio State in The Game:
Harbaugh:
"We got so lucky. One of the fourth downs, they had a fake on. And they had us. I mean they had us cold.
We were prepared for it. We knew the fake was coming just by the personnel that was there. We had four practices, four meetings. And not one of us saw it. Nobody on the field saw it, and they had us cold.
I think their snapper snapped to the wrong guy, snapped it to the punter instead of to the faker, but it would have been a huge gain. We got extremely lucky.
They actually were going for it and would have pulled off a big fourth down conversion.
We're kicking ourselves for not identifying it like we should have. We got super lucky.
It’s not a question of coaching decision. They had decided — had it really wired to to work. We had it wired to stop. We could have really stopped it. And then when they did snap it to their punter, we really should have blocked it. "
November 28th, 2022 at 1:17 AM ^
That’s a Harbaugh quote? That seems like pretty good evidence for the reddit poster.
edit: not the part about the false start though
November 28th, 2022 at 3:39 AM ^
"we got super lucky"
EDIT: OMG it's a real quote.
November 28th, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
Also shows how much Harbaugh and staff had Ohio State pegged. It rarely feels like we've got them outschemed or have prepped for ALL their contingencies, but the fact that he spotted a fake punt in real time and had an answer ready for it shows how far we've come from a coaching perspective.
November 28th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
No way you add five yards to 4th and six on purpose if your plan is to fake it.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:30 AM ^
JMO - bravo. You win the fucking internet tonight
November 28th, 2022 at 6:57 AM ^
Wow. Harbaugh knows better than any of us. I will say that this play shows all we need to know about OSU. UM had its own trick play but had to bring in a LB to do it. Executed it perfectly. OSU screwed it up. Coaching contrast is quite evident right there.
November 28th, 2022 at 7:17 AM ^
What if the punter was supposed to get the ball and then throw it to the guy running left? Then because the snap was a little off he panicked and just kicked it.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:30 AM ^
What I don’t understand is why we didn’t have a punt safe defense on? You’ve been practicing all week, it’s an obvious spot for a fake and you aren’t getting any kind of return no matter what. There’s no way a slim chance at a block is worth it there
November 28th, 2022 at 1:17 AM ^
This makes no sense.
1) a fake on 4th and 6 is hard enough. Intentionally giving up 5 more yards is insane.
2) Day looks annoyed, but not furious, at the false start. Not the reaction you’d expect if it was on purpose, nor the reaction you’d expect if a fake got botched.
3) I don’t see the action at all on the snap. Neither of the up men make any attempt to grab the snap, which you’d expect if that was the intended play. It’s a little to the punter’s left, but not egregiously so.
4) the only thing that looks odd at all is that one of the up men is left with nobody to block while the side the punter rolls to is overloaded. But honestly, a weird fake that didn’t go off seems less likely than OSU just misreading the blocking.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:32 AM ^
I think the LS screwed up the play on 4th & 6. Probably figured the fake was called off 4th & 11. Not only did he have the yips the previous play, the signals got crossed on the redo and he screwed that up. Had numbers to the left and would’ve at least picked up the first down. They choked, couldn’t execute when it counted. Took a personal foul that put them in a tough situation. Complete meltdown.
November 28th, 2022 at 6:40 AM ^
I will suggest an alternative:
Maybe the fake was called on 4th and 6. LS realized they were not in the right formation so he false started to allow them to get into the right formation without burning a timeout.
November 28th, 2022 at 7:40 AM ^
In that situation, the penalty is arguably (much) worse than using a timeout.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:16 AM ^
I think you're giving these guys way too much credit for complex thinking
November 28th, 2022 at 1:32 AM ^
Harbaugh literally said it was a fake, but I'm sure you know better than him:
JH: "We got so lucky. One of the fourth downs, they had a fake on. And they had us. I mean they had us cold.
We were prepared for it. We knew the fake was coming just by the personnel that was there. We had four practices, four meetings. And not one of us saw it. Nobody on the field saw it, and they had us cold.
I think their snapper snapped to the wrong guy, snapped it to the punter instead of to the faker, but it would have been a huge gain. We got extremely lucky.
They actually were going for it and would have pulled off a big fourth down conversion.
We're kicking ourselves for not identifying it like we should have. We got super lucky.
It’s not a question of coaching decision. They had decided — had it really wired to to work. We had it wired to stop. We could have really stopped it. And then when they did snap it to their punter, we really should have blocked it.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:41 AM ^
Well I didn’t watch that press conference, and it wasn’t mentioned until after I started typing my post. Never claimed I knew better than Harbaugh.
The idea that the false start was intentional is still pretty crazy though.
It’s also still weird that the up man doesn’t try to go for the snap, unless it’s an option call and the LS blew the option?
November 28th, 2022 at 2:21 AM ^
I agree, but watch the snapper on the first play. That movement is so bizarre and isn't caused by Michigan jumping as his head is down looking at the ball.
November 28th, 2022 at 7:53 AM ^
I had to read this twice to see if it was real, and I still didn't know so I went to find it in the presser to confirm, lol.
November 28th, 2022 at 8:46 AM ^
It was a B1G Championship game conference call last night that he told this story, not the post game. They probably realized they missed it during the film review.
November 28th, 2022 at 1:22 AM ^
I noticed how unnatural it looked and after seeing this breakdown I'd give it a 50% chance of it being a botched fake. It kinda boils down to 3 assignments and all 3 having botched it not even counting the punter.
I will grant that if it were a fake it likely goes a long way.
November 28th, 2022 at 2:09 AM ^
So last year they lost because of flu and bad weather and this year they lost because of a botched punt? Yeah right whatever.