MSU @ UM Special Teams Matchup
After perusing some of the matchup results for the upcoming MSU @ UM game available on the new CFB Matchup Tool site, I found that it includes results for Special Teams based on the FEI Model (which we know FBO won't post anything until next week). The results are quite stunning, while at the same time giving some measure of validation to the general consensus in these parts that the UM Special Teams are indeed "special" (e.g. coffin-corner punts, only 2 punt touchbacks, fair-catches or returns on everything, and returning KO's for TD's), and the MSU Special Teams are just plain poo-stinky (check out Q1 of the Rutgers game and you'll get an idea).
Anyway, I give you the overall STE chart which aggregates all of the ST factors (kickoffs & returns, punts & returns, field goals) into an equivalent points-based metric, along with rankings. The raw numbers indicate a +10.5 point differential in UM's favor, with adjusted numbers citing a more modest +6.2 point edge.
I'm thinking if the offense doesn't get anything going, maybe we should just punt on 1st down, let the defense turn around a 3 & out, and kick field goals all day long.
October 16th, 2015 at 12:53 PM ^
While I applaud your logic, leaders don't punt on 1st down.
October 16th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^
Strictly speaking, some legends have.
The teams punted 45 times, sometimes on first down, which is highly unusual in football.
October 16th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 12:57 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^
+1 for this giving him a mullet. Douche up front, party in the back.
October 16th, 2015 at 5:36 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^
I checked out theonlycolor's game preview, which I thought was fair enough overall. The one area where I think he is dead wrong is special teams. His analysis was (paraphrasing) "MSU has been bad but those mistakes are fixable. UM is only middle of the road. This will be an asset."
Aside from the obvious logical fallacy of assuming their terrible special teams will be fixed in one week, I think he is vastly underestimating UM's improvement in that area.
October 16th, 2015 at 2:35 PM ^
I get that our special teams "stats" are average, and who pays attention to other teams' punters? But this sounds like someone who didn't watch us play.
You know the woes: kick and punt returns early in the year, bad punt snaps against Rutgers and Purdue, Michael Geiger's inconsistencies, and exactly one punt return for exactly one yard on the season. The issues are myriad and pervasive.
But these are correctable things! Easily correctable, even. And given MSU's history of solid special teams work, there are reason for optimism in this realm. My bold prediction is that there are no special teams gaffes for MSU in this game, and they could be a real positive.
Here's what you need to know about R. Michigan's special teams: they've only got 5 kickoff returns on the year, and one of them was the opening touchdown against Northwestern. They're middling in the Big Ten in terms of punting and kickoffs, and kicker Kenny Allen is 7-for-9 this year. Field position has been a nice advantage for RM this year, but that has more to do with their defense than anything else.
October 16th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
We're top 10 in a bunch of special teams categories. He must have thought those were Big Ten rankings and not national ones.
October 16th, 2015 at 10:46 PM ^
So MSU, having a fairly pedestrian offense, is going to score 33 on Michigan....a team which has allowed 31 points on D/ST all year and just 7 non-garbage time points in the last 4 games.
I think he got the 28 for us right, but absolutely no chance MSU scores 33 without a lot of help from Michigan turnovers.
October 16th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
will be the difference in this game. In a potential defensive struggle, field position and field goals could be the key for Michigan. I'm also hoping we get at least one pick six. Cook will definitely try to throw the ball down the field, and he hasn't faced a defensive backfield anything like Michigan's.
October 16th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
"poo-stinky," is that a technical term? I don't like all the jargon
October 16th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 1:18 PM ^
heh, jinx
October 16th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
October 16th, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^
it's not always true, but in this case, the eye test matches perfectly. i've watched parts of four sparty games this year, and in every case they've made a lousy special teams play within minutes of me turning it on, be it giving up a return or kicking out of bounds in a critical spot.
i think special teams win this game, to be honest.
October 16th, 2015 at 10:32 PM ^
I said this in a different thread: I'm not smart with gambling on sports. So my question is, if the line was -13.5 for Maryland, and we won 28-0, how did we not cover the spread?